01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Atlas to win48%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Liga MXEstadio Jalisco, Guadalajara21°0,8 mm12 km/h
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AtlasPossession control1–1
AtlanteLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Atlas (48%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 1.96 (+5 %)
Atlas – Atlante · Liga MX
1 · Atlas 48%X 28%24% Atlante · 2
48%
28%
24%
Analysis: Atlas – Atlante
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT: Atlas Guadalajara enters the match with a 48% win probability, the highest among the possible outcomes. This suggests confidence in the home side's capability to control possession and dictate the match's pace. Despite this, their actual points tally of 12 somewhat flatters them when compared to their expected points of 6.8, highlighting a potential overperformance in recent outcomes. In contrast, Atlante's 6 points may not fully reflect their underlying numbers, as their expected points of 7.9 suggest they've been slightly unlucky.
Defensively, both teams show vulnerabilities, with Atlas conceding 1.7 expected goals per match and Atlante at 1.6. Offensively, Atlas has a slight edge with 1.2 expected goals per match compared to Atlante's 1.0, aligning with the model's predicted 1.76 to 1.05 in expected goals for this fixture. Given these metrics, a slight lean towards a low-scoring victory for the hosts, possibly 1-0 or 2-1, aligns with the most probable scorelines. The over 2.5 goals market sits at 53%, reflecting a marginal expectation for more than two goals.
Given the home side's probabilistic edge and the model's lean toward Atlas Guadalajara, the numbers point to a moderate edge for the hosts, though no specific betting odds are available to assess value.
AtlasForm WLWWL
League ranking xG #13xGA #17xT #15xP/match #16Points #4
Key players
- Florián Gonzalo de Jesús MonzónFxG 0.55 · xT 0.00
- Sergio Ismael Hernández FloresFxG 0.09 · xT 0.34
- Arturo GonzalezCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.07
AtlanteForm DWDLD
League ranking xG #17xGA #16xT #16xP/match #11Points #14
Key players
- Jhojan JulioFxG 0.26 · xT 0.19
- Eugenio PizzutoRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.06
- Luis Fernando Puente PradoFxG 0.35 · xT -0.06
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Atlas 48% · Draw 28% · Atlante 24%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - AtlasBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,64fair 6,58+1 %
MissMatchresultat - AtlanteBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 11,87fair 18,22-35 %
MissMatch prediction: Atlas – Atlante
Predicted score matrix
Atlante →
Atlas →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.3%
0–16.0%
0–23.3%
0–31.2%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–010.2%
1–111.5%
1–25.9%
1–32.1%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–09.3%
2–19.8%
2–25.2%
2–31.8%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–05.5%
3–15.7%
3–23.0%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–03.6%
4+–13.8%
4+–22.0%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.0-06%
Expected goals
1,76–1,05
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+15%
Under 2,547%
@1.91
Over 2,553%
@1.96EV+5%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Atlas to win48%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Édgar Zaldívar Valverde to score17%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Luis Fernando Puente Prado to score17%
- Juan Nicolás Carrera Zarzar to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 2.553% probability@1.96PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
- X · Draw28% probability@3.58PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Atlas | X | 2 · Atlante |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.98 | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| Betsson | 1.98 | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| Nordicbet | 1.98 | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.97 | EV+ 1% 3.58 | 3.95 |
Odds updated 6 Sept, 02:32
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 30 August — the odds have shortened from 1.99 to 1.91 (−4%).
1-2 %
52 %42 %
2.02 → 1.97
X+2 %
33 %23 %
3.52 → 3.58
2+14 %
30 %20 %
3.48 → 3.95
Over 2,5+10 %
56 %46 %
1.79 → 1.96
Pinnacle · 17 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Atlas
Atlante
Atlas (9–8)
Atlante (6–8)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Atlas
Atlante
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Atlas
Atlante
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Atlas | Atlante |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 12 | 6 |
| xPoints | 6.8 | 7.9 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.38 | 0.18 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| Playing style | Atlas | Atlante |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| xT per match | 0.81 | 0.78 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 19 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.66 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.65 |
| Passes per match | 328 | 234 |
| Passes against per match | 339 | 407 |
| Switches of play per match | 28.6 | 16.3 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 25 |
| Set pieces | Atlas | Atlante |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.12 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 4.1 | 4 |
| Corners against per match | 6.2 | 6.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.58 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.7 | 0.64 |
| Other | Atlas | Atlante |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.65 |
| The goalkeepers | Camilo Vargas (Atlas) | Oscar Jimenez (Atlante) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 16 | 25 |
| Save % | 73% | 76% |
| xG prevented | 46% | 50% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Atlas vs Atlante according to our model?
The model gives Atlas a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Atlas 48%, draw 28%, Atlante 24%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.