Atlas vs Pumas UNAM: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

Liga MX19 September 2026Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara20°2,9 mm10 km/h

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AtlasPossession control

Pumas UNAMPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Pumas UNAM (38%)

1 · Atlas 30%X 32%38% Pumas UNAM · 2

30%

32%

38%

Analysis: Atlas – Pumas UNAM

Erik Lindberg · 11 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: Atlas holds a slight edge in this matchup, having accumulated more points than Pumas UNAM so far this season. However, the model tips the scales toward the visitors, giving Pumas a 38% chance of victory compared to Atlas’s 30%. The expected goals narrative leans towards Pumas as well, with a projected 1.58 to 1.26 advantage. Despite Atlas's better xG in matches so far, their higher xGA means they're more vulnerable defensively.

The head-to-head data since 2023 reflects a balanced history with one win apiece and two draws. However, with only four encounters, this is a thin slice of context and offers limited predictive power. Both teams favor possession control, and with over 2.5 goals priced at 54% and both teams to score at 57%, this shapes up as a close but goal-friendly affair. The most likely scorelines are clustered around 1-1, 1-2, and 0-1, pointing to another tight contest.

The market sees goals as likely, with over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 57%. Given the model's lean toward Pumas UNAM, there is value on a Pumas win at odds above break-even. Savvy bettors might find a worthwhile edge here.

Atlas

Form LWWLD

League ranking xG #12xGA #17xT #15xP/match #16Points #5

Key players

Florián Gonzalo de Jesús MonzónFxG 0.46 · xT 0.01
Sergio Ismael Hernández FloresFxG 0.08 · xT 0.31
Arturo GonzalezCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.06

Pumas UNAM

Form WDDLW

League ranking xG #16xGA #9xT #9xP/match #15Points #12

Key players

Sebastian CordovaFxG 0.10 · xT 0.11
Robert MoralesFxG 0.14 · xT 0.06
Nathan SilvaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Atlas – Pumas UNAM

Predicted score matrix

Pumas UNAM →

Atlas →

0–06.2%

0–18.9%

0–27.3%

0–33.9%

0–4+2.2%

1–07.0%

1–112.0%

1–29.2%

1–34.9%

1–4+2.7%

2–04.6%

2–17.3%

2–25.8%

2–33.1%

2–4+1.7%

3–01.9%

3–13.1%

3–22.4%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.7%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.3%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-19%
4.2-17%
5.0-27%

Expected goals

1,26–1,58

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

–

Over 2,554%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Pumas UNAM or draw (X2)70%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Double chance Pumas UNAM or draw (X2)70%
Over 2.5 goals54%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals54%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Atlas 1Draw 2Pumas UNAM 1

Goals: 4–4 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Atlas

Pumas UNAM

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Atlas (10–9)

Pumas UNAM (11–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Atlas

Pumas UNAM

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Atlas

Pumas UNAM

The teams in numbers

Performance	Atlas	Pumas UNAM
Points	13	8
xPoints	7.8	6.9
xG per match	1.2	1
xGA per match	1.6	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.41	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.42	0.14

Playing style	Atlas	Pumas UNAM
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.3
Field tilt	0.45	0.46
xT per match	0.81	1.1
xTA per match	1	0.99
Won balls, offensive half	21	24
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.26
Entries into the box per match	10	12
Entries into the box against	13	12
Pass completion %	0.75	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.73
Passes per match	344	374
Passes against per match	322	368
Switches of play per match	28.9	31.8
Long balls per match	32	35

Set pieces	Atlas	Pumas UNAM
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.03
Corners per match	4	5
Corners against per match	5.5	3.9
xG per corner	0.04	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.57	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.68	0.61

Other	Atlas	Pumas UNAM
Throw-in control	0.72	0.66

The goalkeepers	Camilo Vargas (Atlas)	Keylor Antonio Navas Gamboa (Pumas UNAM)
Saves	17	18
Save %	71%	67%
xG prevented	51%	37%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Atlas

Fixtures, form & tips

Pumas UNAM

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Atlas vs Pumas UNAM according to our model?

The model gives Pumas UNAM a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Atlas 30%, draw 32%, Pumas UNAM 38%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.