Atlas vs Querétaro: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

Liga MX29 August 2026Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara24°10 km/h

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AtlasCounter-attacks & crosses

1–3

QuerétaroLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Atlas (40%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 3.80 (+12 %)

1 · Atlas 40%X 31%29% Querétaro · 2

40%

31%

29%

Analysis: Atlas – Querétaro

Oscar Nilsson · 27 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Atlas enters this clash with a slight statistical edge, reflected in their 40% win probability compared to Querétaro's 29%. However, the numbers present a nuanced picture. Querétaro's expected points (7.8) and expected goals per match (1.5) surpass Atlas's 5.9 and 1.1, respectively. This discrepancy suggests that the visitors, despite their lower points tally, have performed better on an expected basis. Querétaro's direct and low defensive style could frustrate Atlas, known for their counter-attacks and crosses, especially given the visitors' xGA of 1.5 compared to the hosts' 1.7.

The head-to-head record since 2023 is even, with each team having one win and two draws in four encounters. This small sample size diminishes its weight against the broader season trends, which highlight the potential for a tightly contested match. Both teams have shown vulnerabilities in defense, but Querétaro's ability to generate higher expected goals per match might give them the edge in creating chances.

With a 44% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance that both teams will score, the game might not see a flurry of goals. The model’s inclination towards a low-scoring affair is supported by standout value from betting markets. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all list under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.88, offering a 5% edge as the model rates the likelihood at 56%.

Given the defensive strengths and offensive ambitions of both sides, a 1-1 draw feels like the most sensible outcome, slightly more probable than a narrow 1-0 win for the hosts. For bettors seeking value, backing the under 2.5 goals with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet at those favorable odds represents the sharpest angle.

Atlas

Form WWLWW

League ranking xG #13xGA #17xT #18xP/match #14Points #2

Key players

Sergio Ismael Hernández FloresFxG 0.11 · xT 0.28
Arturo GonzalezCAMxG 0.09 · xT 0.08
Luís Henriques de Barros LopesRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.10

Querétaro

Form LWWDL

League ranking xG #8xGA #13xT #6xP/match #5Points #11

Key players

Ali AvilaFxG 0.57 · xT 0.07
Enzo Daniel Giménez RojasRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.08
Carlo Adriano García PradesCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.05

Final score

1 – 3

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Atlas 40% · Draw 31% · Querétaro 29%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - AtlasBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,32fair 10,94-33 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Querétaro F.C.Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 10,94fair 16,69-34 %

Hit

Match prediction: Atlas – Querétaro

Predicted score matrix

Querétaro →

Atlas →

0–09.1%

0–19.1%

0–25.2%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.6%

1–011.4%

1–113.2%

1–27.0%

1–32.5%

1–4+0.9%

2–08.0%

2–18.7%

2–24.7%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–03.6%

3–13.9%

3–22.1%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.6%

4+–11.8%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.0-19%
4.0-09%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,35–1,09

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,556%

@1.93EV+3%

Over 2,544%

@1.92

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Atlas or draw (1X)70%
Under 3.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Atlas or draw (1X)70%
Under 2.5 goals56%
Luís André Leite Esteves to score17%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Mateo Agustín Coronel to score22%
Aldo Paúl Rocha González to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 1.530% probability@3.80Paddy PowerEV+12%reference odds
Under 2.556% probability@1.93PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
Under 2.556% probability@1.91Paddy PowerEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Atlas	X	2 · Querétaro
Betsafe	2.15	3.15	3.35
Betsson	2.15	3.15	3.35
Nordicbet	2.15	3.15	3.35
Paddy Power	1.95	EV+ 6% 3.40	3.30
Pinnacle	2.19	3.17	EV+ 6% 3.68

Odds updated 29 Aug, 10:36

Odds movement

1-4 %

45 %40 %

2.27 → 2.19

X+4 %

33 %28 %

3.05 → 3.17

2+5 %

29 %24 %

3.51 → 3.68

Over 2,50 %

53 %48 %

1.91 → 1.92

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Atlas 1Draw 2Querétaro 1

Goals: 5–5 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Atlas

Querétaro

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Atlas (8–5)

Querétaro (6–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Atlas

Querétaro

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Atlas

Querétaro

The teams in numbers

Performance	Atlas	Querétaro
Points	12	7
xPoints	5.9	7.8
xG per match	1.1	1.5
xGA per match	1.7	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.37	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.54	0.14

Playing style	Atlas	Querétaro
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.33
Field tilt	0.39	0.48
xT per match	0.69	1.2
xTA per match	1.1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	19	21
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.2
Entries into the box per match	8	13
Entries into the box against	16	13
Pass completion %	0.74	0.7
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.7
Passes per match	311	234
Passes against per match	352	364
Switches of play per match	26.9	16.2
Long balls per match	30	25

Set pieces	Atlas	Querétaro
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.05
Corners per match	3.8	4.3
Corners against per match	7.1	7.1
xG per corner	0.06	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.58	0.36
First touch, defensive corners %	0.71	0.47

Other	Atlas	Querétaro
Throw-in control	0.71	0.56

The goalkeepers	Camilo Vargas (Atlas)	Guillermo Allison (Querétaro)
Saves	14	13
Save %	82%	68%
xG prevented	57%	42%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Atlas

Fixtures, form & tips

Querétaro

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Atlas vs Querétaro according to our model?

The model gives Atlas a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Atlas 40%, draw 31%, Querétaro 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.