Liga MXEstadio Alfonso Lastras, San Luis Potosí22°19 km/h

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    Atlético San LuisAtlético San LuisCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    CD GuadalajaraCD GuadalajaraPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · CD Guadalajara (54%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 2.68 (+3 %)

    Atlético San Luis – CD Guadalajara · Liga MX

    1 · Atlético San Luis 24%X 22%54% CD Guadalajara · 2

    Analysis: Atlético San Luis – CD Guadalajara

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    A 54% model probability leans towards CD Guadalajara taking the win over Atlético San Luis, highlighting the visitors' strong stance in this matchup. The numbers indicate a likely trend towards goals, with an over 2.5 goals probability sitting at 61% and both teams to score at 59%. Despite the small head-to-head sample since 2023 showing an even split, the hosts' counter-attacking style might struggle against Chivas' possession and high press approach, particularly given their current unbeaten run in five league matches.

    Expected goals favor Guadalajara significantly (2.04 versus 1.11 for San Luis), reflecting their capacity to create chances and control the game. The visitors also hold an edge in actual and expected points, as well as in defensive stability, conceding fewer expected goals per match than their opponents. This paints a picture of a match where Guadalajara could capitalize on their form and tactical superiority to secure a result.

    The shrewd betting angle lies in the potential for a high-scoring affair. The over 3.5 goals market presents value across multiple bookmakers at odds of 2.68, offering a 3% edge. Given the matchup dynamics and offensive potential, an adventurous punt on a 1-2 scoreline seems plausible, with the possibility for even more goals.

    Atlético San LuisAtlético San Luis
    Form DDLDW
    League ranking xG #15xGA #12xT #13xP/match #14Points #13
    Key players
    • Rafael Nicolas Llorente SanzFxG 0.35 · xT 0.09
    • Sebastien Salles LamongeCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.08
    • David RodriguezRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.05
    CD GuadalajaraCD Guadalajara
    Form WDWWD
    League ranking xG #6xGA #4xT #1xP/match #9Points #5
    Key players
    • Bryan GonzalezLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.20
    • Armando GonzalezFxG 0.27 · xT -0.20
    • Roberto AlvaradoRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.06

    Match prediction: Atlético San Luis – CD Guadalajara

    Predicted score matrix

    CD Guadalajara →
    Atlético San Luis →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.6%
    0–18.5%
    0–28.9%
    0–36.1%
    0–4+4.9%
    1
    1–04.5%
    1–110.0%
    1–29.9%
    1–36.7%
    1–4+5.5%
    2
    2–02.6%
    2–15.4%
    2–25.5%
    2–33.7%
    2–4+3.0%
    3
    3–01.0%
    3–12.0%
    3–22.0%
    3–31.4%
    3–4+1.1%
    4+
    4+–00.3%
    4+–10.7%
    4+–20.7%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.1-210%
    3. 3.0-29%
    4. 4.0-18%
    5. 5.1-37%
    Expected goals
    1,11–2,04
    Both teams to score
    59%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,1
    Under 2,539%
    @2.25
    Over 2,561%
    @1.67EV+1%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • CD Guadalajara to win54%
    • Over 1.5 goals82%

    Combined probability

    50%

    Fair odds

    2.00

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • CD Guadalajara to win54%
    • Over 2.5 goals61%
    • Ricardo Marín Sánchez to score39%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score59%
    • Over 2.5 goals61%
    • Ricardo Marín Sánchez to score39%
    • Óscar Uriel Macías Mora to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Over 3.539% probability@2.68BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
    • Over 3.539% probability@2.68BetssonEV+3%reference odds
    • Over 3.539% probability@2.68NordicbetEV+3%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Atlético San LuisX2 · CD Guadalajara
    Betsafe
    EV+ 1%
    4.25    		3.601.75
    Betsson
    EV+ 1%
    4.25    		3.601.75
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 1%
    4.25    		3.601.75
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 2%
    4.28    		3.981.78

    Odds updated 5 Sept, 00:32

    Odds movement

    1+1 %
    25 %20 %

    4.22 → 4.28

    X+2 %
    27 %22 %

    3.92 → 3.98

    2+1 %
    56 %51 %

    1.77 → 1.78

    Over 2,5+1 %
    60 %55 %

    1.65 → 1.67

    Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Atlético San Luis 2Draw 0CD Guadalajara 2
    Goals: 9–8 (⌀ 4,2)

    Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Club Deportivo Guadalajara are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Atlético San Luis
    CD Guadalajara
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Atlético San Luis (8–10)
    CD Guadalajara (9–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Atlético San Luis
    Eduardo Aguila: 297 passningar, xT 0.72AguilaSebastien Salles Lamonge: 256 passningar, xT 0.25LamongeMiguel Garcia: 249 passningar, xT 0.47GarciaRobson Alves de Barros: 220 passningar, xT 0.39BarrosOscar Macias: 186 passningar, xT 0.49MaciasRomán Torres Acosta: 155 passningar, xT 0.66AcostaDavid Rodriguez: 113 passningar, xT 0.05RodriguezJohan Caicedo Caicedo: 102 passningar, xT 0.04CaicedoAndres Sanchez: 91 passningar, xT 0.06SanchezLucas Esteves Souza: 81 passningar, xT -0.03SouzaAldo Cruz: 75 passningar, xT 0.05Cruz
    CD Guadalajara
    Luis Romo: 366 passningar, xT 1.66RomoFernando Gonzalez: 261 passningar, xT 0.53GonzalezRoberto Alvarado: 248 passningar, xT 0.23AlvaradoDiego Campillo: 238 passningar, xT 0.69CampilloOmar Govea: 204 passningar, xT 0.31GoveaBrian Gutiérrez: 162 passningar, xT 0.8GutiérrezJordan Carrillo: 158 passningar, xT 0.25CarrilloDaniel Aguirre: 143 passningar, xT 0.42AguirreRaul Rangel: 141 passningar, xT 0.07RangelRichard Ledezma: 131 passningar, xT 0.48LedezmaJose Castillo: 125 passningar, xT 0.62Castillo
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Atlético San Luis
    Eduardo Aguila: 297 passningar, xT 0.72AguilaSebastien Salles Lamonge: 256 passningar, xT 0.25LamongeMiguel Garcia: 249 passningar, xT 0.47GarciaRobson Alves de Barros: 220 passningar, xT 0.39BarrosOscar Macias: 186 passningar, xT 0.49MaciasRomán Torres Acosta: 155 passningar, xT 0.66AcostaDavid Rodriguez: 113 passningar, xT 0.05RodriguezJohan Caicedo Caicedo: 102 passningar, xT 0.04CaicedoAndres Sanchez: 91 passningar, xT 0.06SanchezLucas Esteves Souza: 81 passningar, xT -0.03SouzaAldo Cruz: 75 passningar, xT 0.05Cruz
    CD Guadalajara
    Luis Romo: 366 passningar, xT 1.66RomoFernando Gonzalez: 261 passningar, xT 0.53GonzalezRoberto Alvarado: 248 passningar, xT 0.23AlvaradoDiego Campillo: 238 passningar, xT 0.69CampilloOmar Govea: 204 passningar, xT 0.31GoveaBrian Gutiérrez: 162 passningar, xT 0.8GutiérrezJordan Carrillo: 158 passningar, xT 0.25CarrilloDaniel Aguirre: 143 passningar, xT 0.42AguirreRaul Rangel: 141 passningar, xT 0.07RangelRichard Ledezma: 131 passningar, xT 0.48LedezmaJose Castillo: 125 passningar, xT 0.62Castillo

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceAtlético San LuisCD Guadalajara
    Points611
    xPoints7.18.2
    xG per match1.11.6
    xGA per match1.41.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.210.14
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.160.25
    Playing styleAtlético San LuisCD Guadalajara
    Build-up efficiency0.270.33
    Field tilt0.450.66
    xT per match0.911.6
    xTA per match1.10.81
    Won balls, offensive half2027
    Pressing intensity0.230.22
    Pressing efficiency0.270.25
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.210.24
    Entries into the box per match1120
    Entries into the box against1510
    Pass completion %0.810.83
    Pass completion % under pressure0.760.78
    Passes per match405519
    Passes against per match363324
    Switches of play per match20.829.8
    Long balls per match2131
    Set piecesAtlético San LuisCD Guadalajara
    xG from free kicks0.010.01
    Corners per match3.28.9
    Corners against per match73.7
    xG per corner0.030.02
    xGA per corner against0.030.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.470.6
    First touch, defensive corners %0.410.27
    OtherAtlético San LuisCD Guadalajara
    Throw-in control0.710.73
    The goalkeepersAndres Sanchez (Atlético San Luis)Raul Rangel (CD Guadalajara)
    Saves2019
    Save %67%76%
    xG prevented45%35%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Atlético San Luis vs CD Guadalajara according to our model?

    The model gives CD Guadalajara a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Atlético San Luis 24%, draw 22%, CD Guadalajara 54%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.