01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Atlético San Luis or draw (1X)69%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Liga MXEstadio Alfonso Lastras, San Luis Potosí20°0,6 mm14 km/h
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Atlético San LuisCounter-attacks & crossesvs
NecaxaPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Atlético San Luis (44%)
Atlético San Luis – Necaxa · Liga MX
1 · Atlético San Luis 44%X 27%29% Necaxa · 2
44%
27%
29%
Analysis: Atlético San Luis – Necaxa
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT:
Necaxa have dominated recent head-to-head meetings with San Luis, winning three of their last four clashes since 2023. However, this small sample contrasts with the visitors' actually stronger overall form and expected goals metrics this season. San Luis might have the psychological edge playing at home, but Necaxa's recent scoring streak—netting in eight consecutive league matches—could tip the scales back their way.
San Luis has been more defensively sound according to expected goals against (xGA), which could be pivotal as they look to break the visitors' momentum. Yet, the expected goals for (xG) tell a different story: Necaxa leads with 1.6 xG per match compared to San Luis's 1.0. Although San Luis edges in defensive solidity, Necaxa's attacking efficiency is notable. Given these contrasts, the game is likely to be a tactical tussle between San Luis's counterattack and Necaxa's possession-based approach.
Despite Necaxa's superior xPoints and points tally, the model leans slightly towards a San Luis win, projecting a 44% chance for the hosts to take all three points against a 29% probability for the visitors. The projected most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw at 12%, followed by a 2-1 victory for San Luis at 9%. The model anticipates an energetic contest, with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles emerge in these nuances. Considering the model's alignment and Necaxa's scoring form, a flurry of goals seems plausible despite both teams' moderate defensive records. With both teams having their strengths to exploit, expect a competitive affair where goals could flow.
Atlético San LuisForm DLDWL
League ranking xG #17xGA #7xT #13xP/match #13Points #16
Key players
- Rafael Nicolas Llorente SanzFxG 0.37 · xT 0.08
- Sebastien Salles LamongeCAMxG 0.09 · xT 0.11
- David RodriguezRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.05
NecaxaForm LLDLD
League ranking xG #6xGA #13xT #11xP/match #8Points #13
Key players
- Julián Simón CarranzaFxG 0.73 · xT 0.04
- Javier Ezequiel RuizLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.25
- Ricardo MonrealRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.19
Match prediction: Atlético San Luis – Necaxa
Predicted score matrix
Necaxa →
Atlético San Luis →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.8%
0–16.9%
0–24.8%
0–32.1%
0–4+0.9%
1
1–08.4%
1–111.8%
1–27.6%
1–33.3%
1–4+1.5%
2
2–06.9%
2–19.1%
2–26.0%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–03.6%
3–14.8%
3–23.1%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–02.0%
4+–12.7%
4+–21.8%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,58–1,32
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,545%
–
Over 2,555%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Atlético San Luis or draw (1X)69%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- David Rodríguez Uribe to score34%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- David Rodríguez Uribe to score34%
- Johan Caicedo Caicedo to be booked18%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesAtlético San Luis 0Draw 1Necaxa 3
Goals: 5–12 (⌀ 4,2)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Key facts
- Club Necaxa have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Atlético San Luis
Necaxa
Atlético San Luis (8–13)
Necaxa (9–12)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Atlético San Luis
Necaxa
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Atlético San Luis
Necaxa
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Atlético San Luis | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 6 | 8 |
| xPoints | 8.8 | 10.2 |
| xG per match | 1 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| Playing style | Atlético San Luis | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.45 | 0.4 |
| xT per match | 0.87 | 0.97 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.76 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 413 | 328 |
| Passes against per match | 378 | 348 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.1 | 27.6 |
| Long balls per match | 23 | 36 |
| Set pieces | Atlético San Luis | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 3.1 | 5.4 |
| Corners against per match | 6.3 | 5.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.34 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| Other | Atlético San Luis | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| The goalkeepers | Andres Sanchez (Atlético San Luis) | Luis Ronaldo Jiménez González (Necaxa) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 21 | 28 |
| Save % | 66% | 72% |
| xG prevented | 44% | 55% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Atlético San Luis vs Necaxa according to our model?
The model gives Atlético San Luis a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Atlético San Luis 44%, draw 27%, Necaxa 29%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.