01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Cruz Azul or draw (1X)70%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Liga MX17°5,9 mm7 km/h
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Cruz AzulPossession & high pressvs
Club AméricaPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Cruz Azul (42%)
Cruz Azul – Club América · Liga MX
1 · Cruz Azul 42%X 28%30% Club América · 2
42%
28%
30%
Analysis: Cruz Azul – Club América
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
The head-to-head record between Cruz Azul and America since 2023 doesn't present a clear dominator: in their last eight meetings, Cruz Azul has claimed victory three times, drawn three, and lost twice. This even-handed history is intriguing, yet the home side's 65% win rate at their ground adds a layer of confidence for them, even as America arrives on a hot streak of four consecutive wins.
America's firepower is evident, having found the back of the net in eight straight league games. This scoring consistency is a significant factor, especially when traveling to face a Cruz Azul side that allows 1.2 expected goals against per match — a vulnerability the visitors will look to exploit. Nonetheless, the expected goals favor the hosts slightly, with Cruz Azul generating 1.8 xG per match compared to America's 1.7.
The model tips the scales towards Cruz Azul with a 42% win probability, and likely scorelines align with this, suggesting narrow victories or a draw. Despite the rain forecast, which traditionally dampens goal-scoring potential, the model sees a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals, hinting at room for offense in this high-pressure clash.
For punters searching for value, the over 3.5 goals market at odds of 3.25 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet presents an enticing proposition. Rated at a 33% likelihood by the model, these odds carry a 7% edge. It’s a bold play given the conditions but one that aligns with both teams' attacking profiles and probability patterns pointing towards a lively encounter.
Cruz AzulForm LLLWW
League ranking xG #3xGA #5xT #2xP/match #9Points #6
Key players
- Nicolás Alejandro IbáñezFxG 0.41 · xT 0.00
- Carlos RodriguezCAMxG 0.07 · xT 0.40
- Jesus Orozco ChiqueteCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.15
Club AméricaForm DWWWW
League ranking xG #4xGA #1xT #10xP/match #2Points #1
Key players
- Emilio LaraRBxG 0.04 · xT 0.10
- Kevin AlvarezLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.18
- Cristian BorjaLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.06
Match prediction: Cruz Azul – Club América
Predicted score matrix
Club América →
Cruz Azul →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.9%
0–16.7%
0–24.5%
0–31.9%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–08.7%
1–111.8%
1–27.3%
1–33.1%
1–4+1.3%
2
2–07.3%
2–19.3%
2–25.9%
2–32.5%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–03.9%
3–15.0%
3–23.2%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–02.3%
4+–12.9%
4+–21.8%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-07%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,62–1,27
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
224%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,545%
@1.96
Over 2,555%
@1.86EV+2%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Cruz Azul or draw (1X)70%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Nicolás Alejandro Ibáñez to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Nicolás Alejandro Ibáñez to score29%
- Ícaro Geovane Da Conceição Nascimento to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Cruz Azul42% probability@2.99PinnacleEV+27%reference odds
- 1 · Cruz Azul42% probability@2.90BetsafeEV+23%reference odds
- 1 · Cruz Azul42% probability@2.90BetssonEV+23%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Cruz Azul | X | 2 · Club América |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 23% 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.32 |
| Betsson | EV+ 23% 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.32 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 23% 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.32 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 27% 2.99 | 3.47 | 2.32 |
Odds updated 10 Sept, 05:07
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Club América win since 7 September — the odds have shortened from 3.42 to 2.32 (−32%).
1+42 %
48 %28 %
2.11 → 2.99
X0 %
38 %18 %
3.46 → 3.47
2-32 %
44 %24 %
3.42 → 2.32
Over 2,5+2 %
61 %41 %
1.83 → 1.86
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 10/09/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
8 matchesCruz Azul 3Draw 3Club América 2
Goals: 12–9 (⌀ 2,6)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Key facts
- CF America come into this round on 4 straight wins.
- CF America have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
- CD Cruz Azul win 65% of their home matches all-time (46 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Cruz Azul
Club América
Cruz Azul (12–11)
Club América (12–2)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Cruz Azul
Club América
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Cruz Azul
Club América
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Cruz Azul | Club América |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 12 | 16 |
| xPoints | 10 | 10.5 |
| xG per match | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 0.91 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.34 | 0.2 |
| Playing style | Cruz Azul | Club América |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.68 | 0.59 |
| xT per match | 1.5 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 0.89 | 0.87 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 17 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 8 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 428 | 398 |
| Passes against per match | 287 | 281 |
| Switches of play per match | 41.9 | 41.1 |
| Long balls per match | 44 | 42 |
| Set pieces | Cruz Azul | Club América |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 6.8 | 7.4 |
| Corners against per match | 4.7 | 5.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.58 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| Other | Cruz Azul | Club América |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Kevin Mier (Cruz Azul) | Rodolfo Cota (Club América) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 16 | 13 |
| Save % | 67% | 87% |
| xG prevented | 43% | 81% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Cruz Azul vs Club América according to our model?
The model gives Cruz Azul a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cruz Azul 42%, draw 28%, Club América 30%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.