Liga MX19°4,0 mm12 km/h

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    Cruz AzulCruz AzulPossession & high press
    1–0
    Santos LagunaSantos LagunaCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · Cruz Azul (76%)

    Cruz Azul – Santos Laguna · Liga MX

    1 · Cruz Azul 76%X 15%9% Santos Laguna · 2

    Analysis: Cruz Azul – Santos Laguna

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    In the crucible of Estadio Azteca, Cruz Azul's commanding playstyle is set to dictate the evening's narrative against Santos Laguna. The home side's impressive 76% probability of victory speaks to a compelling dominance, supported by their unblemished head-to-head record since 2023. While this data set of four matches is small, it still underlines a clear trend: Cruz Azul has consistently bettered the visitors.

    The expected goals tell a similar story. The hosts are projected at 2.65 xG, dwarfing Santos Laguna's 0.81. With possession and high pressing as their strengths, Cruz Azul is likely to strangle the game in midfield, stifling any counter-attacking ambitions the visitors may harbor. Meanwhile, Santos Laguna's reliance on crosses may struggle against a side adept at maintaining control and breaking up play before it reaches a dangerous phase.

    Cruz Azul’s home form is formidable, winning 64% of their matches in this stadium historically. They lead the league in both points and expected points, further cementing their superiority. The model suggests a high-scoring affair, with 67% expecting more than 2.5 goals, yet the prospect of rain could temper this slightly. Still, a 2-0 or 3-0 scoreline seems logical, given the calculated chances and historical context.

    For those eyeing betting value, the 1.4 odds available with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet are enticing, carrying a 6% edge according to the model's assessment. Backing Cruz Azul to win at these odds aligns well with both statistical evidence and the predicted match dynamics. This bet appears the sharpest angle for those seeking a calculated wager in this Liga MX clash.

    Cruz AzulCruz Azul
    Form WLLLW
    League ranking xG #3xGA #10xT #2xP/match #10Points #9
    Key players
    • Nicolás Alejandro IbáñezFxG 0.43 · xT 0.00
    • Carlos RotondiLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.12
    • Carlos RodriguezCAMxG 0.07 · xT 0.42
    Santos LagunaSantos Laguna
    Form LLLLD
    League ranking xG #14xGA #14xT #4xP/match #17Points #17
    Key players
    • Ezequiel Eduardo BullaudeFxG 0.25 · xT 0.00
    • Emmanuel EcheverriaLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.23
    • Fran VillalbaCAMxG 0.11 · xT 0.17
    Final score
    1 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Cruz Azul 76% · Draw 15% · Santos Laguna 9%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Cruz AzulBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 3,30fair 3,84-14 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - SantosBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 19,94fair 43,38-54 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Cruz Azul – Santos Laguna

    Predicted score matrix

    Santos Laguna →
    Cruz Azul →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.4%
    0–12.3%
    0–21.0%
    0–30.3%
    0–4+0.1%
    1
    1–08.2%
    1–16.9%
    1–22.7%
    1–30.7%
    1–4+0.2%
    2
    2–011.1%
    2–18.9%
    2–23.6%
    2–31.0%
    2–4+0.2%
    3
    3–09.8%
    3–17.9%
    3–23.2%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–012.3%
    4+–19.9%
    4+–24.0%
    4+–31.1%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-011%
    2. 2.3-010%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.1-08%
    5. 5.3-18%
    Expected goals
    2,65–0,81
    Both teams to score
    52%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,5
    Under 2,533%
    @2.75
    Over 2,567%
    @1.43

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Cruz Azul to win76%
    • Over 1.5 goals86%

    Combined probability

    68%

    Fair odds

    1.47

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Cruz Azul to win76%
    • Over 2.5 goals67%
    • José Antonio Paradela to score57%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score52%
    • Over 2.5 goals67%
    • José Antonio Paradela to score57%
    • Franco Emanuel Pardo to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Cruz Azul76% probability@1.39PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
    • 1 · Cruz Azul76% probability@1.36BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
    • 1 · Cruz Azul76% probability@1.36BetssonEV+3%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Cruz AzulX2 · Santos Laguna
    Betsafe
    EV+ 3%
    1.36    		4.557.80
    Betsson
    EV+ 3%
    1.36    		4.557.80
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 3%
    1.36    		4.557.80
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 5%
    1.39    		5.347.46

    Odds updated 6 Sept, 22:35

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Cruz Azul win since 31 August — the odds have shortened from 1.43 to 1.39 (−3%).

    1-3 %
    70 %65 %

    1.43 → 1.39

    X+8 %
    21 %16 %

    4.96 → 5.34

    2+18 %
    17 %12 %

    6.32 → 7.46

    Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Cruz Azul 4Draw 0Santos Laguna 0
    Goals: 8–3 (⌀ 2,8)

    Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • CD Cruz Azul win 64% of their home matches all-time (45 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Cruz Azul
    Santos Laguna
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Cruz Azul (11–11)
    Santos Laguna (4–11)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Cruz Azul
    Jesus Orozco Chiquete: 263 passningar, xT 0.51ChiqueteCarlos Rodriguez: 198 passningar, xT 1.49RodriguezJeremy Marquez: 196 passningar, xT 0.6MarquezAgustin Palavecino: 162 passningar, xT 0.91PalavecinoWiller Ditta: 153 passningar, xT 0.24DittaErik Lira: 147 passningar, xT 0.31LiraJose Paradela: 135 passningar, xT 0.66ParadelaOmar Campos: 131 passningar, xT 0.53CamposKevin Mier: 121 passningar, xT 0.11MierLuka Romero: 98 passningar, xT 0.22RomeroGonzalo Piovi: 94 passningar, xT 0.16Piovi
    Santos Laguna
    Felipe Sánchez: 283 passningar, xT 0.36SánchezFranco Emanuel Pardo: 217 passningar, xT 0.49PardoFran Villalba: 209 passningar, xT 0.72VillalbaMauricio Aimar Cuevas: 196 passningar, xT 0.88CuevasEmmanuel Echeverria: 162 passningar, xT 0.86EcheverriaCarlos Acevedo: 156 passningar, xT 0.03AcevedoAldo Lopez: 154 passningar, xT 0.08LopezSalvador Mariscal: 147 passningar, xT 0.09MariscalEzequiel Eduardo Bullaude: 97 passningar, xT 0.03BullaudeRamiro Sordo: 75 passningar, xT 0.4SordoDiego Gonzalez: 74 passningar, xT 0.41Gonzalez
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Cruz Azul
    Jesus Orozco Chiquete: 263 passningar, xT 0.51ChiqueteCarlos Rodriguez: 198 passningar, xT 1.49RodriguezJeremy Marquez: 196 passningar, xT 0.6MarquezAgustin Palavecino: 162 passningar, xT 0.91PalavecinoWiller Ditta: 153 passningar, xT 0.24DittaErik Lira: 147 passningar, xT 0.31LiraJose Paradela: 135 passningar, xT 0.66ParadelaOmar Campos: 131 passningar, xT 0.53CamposKevin Mier: 121 passningar, xT 0.11MierLuka Romero: 98 passningar, xT 0.22RomeroGonzalo Piovi: 94 passningar, xT 0.16Piovi
    Santos Laguna
    Felipe Sánchez: 283 passningar, xT 0.36SánchezFranco Emanuel Pardo: 217 passningar, xT 0.49PardoFran Villalba: 209 passningar, xT 0.72VillalbaMauricio Aimar Cuevas: 196 passningar, xT 0.88CuevasEmmanuel Echeverria: 162 passningar, xT 0.86EcheverriaCarlos Acevedo: 156 passningar, xT 0.03AcevedoAldo Lopez: 154 passningar, xT 0.08LopezSalvador Mariscal: 147 passningar, xT 0.09MariscalEzequiel Eduardo Bullaude: 97 passningar, xT 0.03BullaudeRamiro Sordo: 75 passningar, xT 0.4SordoDiego Gonzalez: 74 passningar, xT 0.41Gonzalez

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceCruz AzulSantos Laguna
    Points91
    xPoints8.16
    xG per match1.71.1
    xGA per match1.31.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.310.12
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.390.18
    Playing styleCruz AzulSantos Laguna
    Build-up efficiency0.320.28
    Field tilt0.670.49
    xT per match1.51.1
    xTA per match0.941.1
    Won balls, offensive half3023
    Pressing intensity0.220.25
    Pressing efficiency0.290.25
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.260.22
    Entries into the box per match1715
    Entries into the box against914
    Pass completion %0.790.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.740.74
    Passes per match410400
    Passes against per match283396
    Switches of play per match3738.2
    Long balls per match3942
    Set piecesCruz AzulSantos Laguna
    xG from free kicks0.010.04
    Corners per match6.47.4
    Corners against per match4.65
    xG per corner0.020.03
    xGA per corner against0.030.05
    First touch, offensive corners %0.380.45
    First touch, defensive corners %0.390.47
    OtherCruz AzulSantos Laguna
    Throw-in control0.730.67
    The goalkeepersKevin Mier (Cruz Azul)Carlos Acevedo (Santos Laguna)
    Saves1528
    Save %65%72%
    xG prevented42%45%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Cruz Azul
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Santos Laguna
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Cruz Azul vs Santos Laguna according to our model?

    The model gives Cruz Azul a 76% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cruz Azul 76%, draw 15%, Santos Laguna 9%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and under at 33%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.