01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Monterrey to win66%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
Liga MXEstadio BBVA, Monterrey29°16 km/h
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MonterreyPossession controlvs
Atlético San LuisCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Monterrey (66%)
Monterrey – Atlético San Luis · Liga MX
1 · Monterrey 66%X 20%14% Atlético San Luis · 2
66%
20%
14%
Analysis: Monterrey – Atlético San Luis
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
The sharp edge? Monterrey at 1.55 with Bet365 appears to be value, considering their higher model probability and superior expected metrics. — This specific betting odds figure is not supported by the given facts and should be removed.
Corrected TEXT:
Monterrey versus Atlético San Luis is set up as a clash of styles. A team built around possession control meets a side relying on counter-attacks and crosses. The hosts are expected to dominate the ball, and with an expected goals tally of 2.26, they are likely to create more chances. San Luis, however, won't shy away from hitting on the break, looking to exploit any gaps with their 1.06 xG. The numbers suggest a balanced but competitive affair.
Despite Monterrey's dominant home record, winning 58% of their matches, the head-to-head is tied at 3-3 since 2023. This small sample might make some hesitate, but Monterrey's superior xPoints (8.5 vs 5.9) on the season hints at a clearer edge. The model gives Monterrey a 66% probability of victory, indicating a statistical advantage.
Goals seem probable here. The over 2.5 goals option looks attractive at 64%, driven by both teams' tendencies to find the net. Monterrey's attacking prowess at home aligns with their scoring average, while San Luis's counter-attacking strategy might just find the gaps in Monterrey's defense. The fixture has historically been high-scoring, with an average of 3.0 goals per game, and this match seems no different.
Considering Monterrey's higher model probability and superior expected metrics, they look the stronger side on paper. As for the scoreline, 2-1 to Monterrey feels like the most plausible outcome. The betting angle leans towards Monterrey pulling through, with a nod towards the over on goals.
MonterreyForm WLWWL
League ranking xG #1xGA #11xT #9xP/match #4Points #7
Key players
- Oliver TorresFxG 0.09 · xT 0.36
- Diego Martín Rossi MarachlianFxG 0.58 · xT 0.13
- Victor GuzmanCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.05
Atlético San LuisForm LDDLD
League ranking xG #15xGA #9xT #13xP/match #16Points #16
Key players
- Sebastien Salles LamongeCAMxG 0.09 · xT 0.10
- Rafael Nicolas Llorente SanzFxG 0.30 · xT 0.11
- Román Torres AcostaRWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.14
Match prediction: Monterrey – Atlético San Luis
Predicted score matrix
Atlético San Luis →
Monterrey →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.9%
0–13.6%
0–22.0%
0–30.7%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–07.9%
1–18.9%
1–24.6%
1–31.6%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–09.2%
2–19.8%
2–25.2%
2–31.8%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–06.9%
3–17.4%
3–23.9%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–06.6%
4+–17.0%
4+–23.7%
4+–31.3%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-110%
- 2.2-09%
- 3.1-19%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.3-17%
Expected goals
2,26–1,06
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
112%
220%
322%
418%
5+24%
Under 2,536%
@2.42
Over 2,564%
@1.57EV+1%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Monterrey to win66%
- Over 2.5 goals64%
- Diego Martín Rossi Marachlian to score39%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals64%
- Diego Martín Rossi Marachlian to score39%
- Óscar Uriel Macías Mora to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Monterrey66% probability@1.67Paddy PowerEV+10%reference odds
- Over 4.524% probability@4.50Paddy PowerEV+8%reference odds
- Over 3.542% probability@2.40Paddy PowerEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Monterrey | X | 2 · Atlético San Luis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.48 | 4.15 | 5.90 |
| Betsson | 1.48 | 4.15 | 5.90 |
| Nordicbet | 1.48 | 4.15 | 5.90 |
| Paddy Power | EV+ 10% 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.48 | 4.64 | 5.90 |
Odds updated 28 Aug, 11:40
Odds movement
10 %
66 %61 %
1.48 → 1.48
X-1 %
23 %18 %
4.67 → 4.64
20 %
18 %13 %
5.92 → 5.90
Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 26/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesMonterrey 3Draw 0Atlético San Luis 3
Goals: 11–7 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Key facts
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.
- CF Monterrey win 58% of their home matches all-time (64 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Monterrey
Atlético San Luis
Monterrey (12–7)
Atlético San Luis (5–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Monterrey
Atlético San Luis
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Monterrey
Atlético San Luis
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Monterrey | Atlético San Luis |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 3 |
| xPoints | 8.5 | 5.9 |
| xG per match | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.57 | 0.2 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| Playing style | Monterrey | Atlético San Luis |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.27 |
| Field tilt | 0.6 | 0.51 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 0.89 |
| xTA per match | 0.79 | 0.87 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 21 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.82 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 405 | 453 |
| Passes against per match | 313 | 318 |
| Switches of play per match | 33.8 | 23 |
| Long balls per match | 38 | 23 |
| Set pieces | Monterrey | Atlético San Luis |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 5.6 | 3.6 |
| Corners against per match | 3.6 | 5.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.46 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.67 | 0.32 |
| Other | Monterrey | Atlético San Luis |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Luis Cardenas (Monterrey) | Andres Sanchez (Atlético San Luis) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 12 | 13 |
| Save % | 63% | 59% |
| xG prevented | 23% | 31% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Monterrey vs Atlético San Luis according to our model?
The model gives Monterrey a 66% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Monterrey 66%, draw 20%, Atlético San Luis 14%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.