CD Guadalajara vs Pumas UNAM: Prediction & Odds (14 Sept 2026)

Liga MX14 September 2026Estadio Akron, Guadalajara19°6,1 mm13 km/h

Läs på svenska

CD GuadalajaraPossession & high press

Pumas UNAMPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · CD Guadalajara (60%)Best value by the model: 2 · Pumas UNAM @ 5.90 (+5 %)

1 · CD Guadalajara 60%X 23%18% Pumas UNAM · 2

60%

23%

18%

Analysis: CD Guadalajara – Pumas UNAM

Sofia Andersson · 10 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: The 60% win probability for CD Guadalajara underlines their commanding form, unbeaten in six league matches. This statistical edge is reinforced by their expected goal tally of 1.86, which dwarfs Pumas UNAM's 1.11. The hosts are not only superior in points but also lead on expected points and goals per match. Although the recent head-to-head sample is small—four games since 2023—it still tilts in Guadalajara's favor with two wins and two draws.

Pumas UNAM's possession control could struggle against Guadalajara's high press, especially with the rain potentially slowing down the play. While both teams show a 57% chance of scoring, Guadalajara's tactical approach and current streak suggest they have the upper hand. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 57% aligns with the model's expectation of a higher-scoring affair, despite the potential dampening effect of the weather.

With a model lean towards Guadalajara and the metrics heavily skewed in their favor, a 2-1 victory for the home side seems plausible. The matchup's nuances and Guadalajara's tactical superiority strongly support backing the hosts in this contest.

CD Guadalajara

Form DWWDW

League ranking xG #9xGA #4xT #1xP/match #12Points #2

Key players

Bryan GonzalezLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.20
Ricardo MarinFxG 0.69 · xT 0.09
Armando GonzalezFxG 0.27 · xT -0.20

Pumas UNAM

Form WWDDL

League ranking xG #16xGA #9xT #9xP/match #15Points #12

Key players

Sebastian CordovaFxG 0.10 · xT 0.11
Robert MoralesFxG 0.14 · xT 0.06
Nathan SilvaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: CD Guadalajara – Pumas UNAM

Predicted score matrix

Pumas UNAM →

CD Guadalajara →

0–05.4%

0–15.4%

0–23.1%

0–31.2%

0–4+0.4%

1–09.2%

1–110.9%

1–25.9%

1–32.2%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.9%

2–19.9%

2–25.5%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.7%

3–05.5%

3–16.1%

3–23.4%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.4%

4+–03.9%

4+–14.4%

4+–22.4%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-09%
4.2-09%
5.3-16%

Expected goals

1,86–1,11

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.20

Over 2,557%

@1.68

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

CD Guadalajara to win60%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

CD Guadalajara to win60%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Ricardo Marín Sánchez to score39%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Ricardo Marín Sánchez to score39%
Pedro Jeampierre Vite Uca to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Pumas UNAM18% probability@5.90BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
2 · Pumas UNAM18% probability@5.90BetssonEV+5%reference odds
2 · Pumas UNAM18% probability@5.90NordicbetEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · CD Guadalajara	X	2 · Pumas UNAM
Bet365	1.55	4.00	5.50
Betfair Exchange	1.10	1.11	1.10
Betsafe	1.50	4.05	EV+ 5% 5.90
Betsson	1.50	4.05	EV+ 5% 5.90
Nordicbet	1.50	4.05	EV+ 5% 5.90
Pinnacle	1.51	4.43	EV+ 4% 5.84

Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:11

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

CD Guadalajara 2Draw 2Pumas UNAM 0

Goals: 5–3 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

Key facts

Club Deportivo Guadalajara are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

CD Guadalajara

Pumas UNAM

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

CD Guadalajara (12–6)

Pumas UNAM (8–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

CD Guadalajara

Pumas UNAM

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

CD Guadalajara

Pumas UNAM

The teams in numbers

Performance	CD Guadalajara	Pumas UNAM
Points	14	8
xPoints	9.2	6.9
xG per match	1.4	1
xGA per match	1.1	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.14

Playing style	CD Guadalajara	Pumas UNAM
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.3
Field tilt	0.64	0.46
xT per match	1.6	1.1
xTA per match	0.79	0.99
Won balls, offensive half	26	24
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.26
Entries into the box per match	19	12
Entries into the box against	10	12
Pass completion %	0.83	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.73
Passes per match	512	374
Passes against per match	344	368
Switches of play per match	28.1	31.8
Long balls per match	31	35

Set pieces	CD Guadalajara	Pumas UNAM
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.03
Corners per match	7.9	5
Corners against per match	3.6	3.9
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.6	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.32	0.61

Other	CD Guadalajara	Pumas UNAM
Throw-in control	0.68	0.66

The goalkeepers	Raul Rangel (CD Guadalajara)	Keylor Antonio Navas Gamboa (Pumas UNAM)
Saves	23	15
Save %	79%	65%
xG prevented	38%	37%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

CD Guadalajara

Fixtures, form & tips

Pumas UNAM

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins CD Guadalajara vs Pumas UNAM according to our model?

The model gives CD Guadalajara a 60% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: CD Guadalajara 60%, draw 23%, Pumas UNAM 18%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.