Necaxa vs Puebla: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Liga MX12 September 2026 03:00 CESTEstadio Victoria, Aguascalientes20°2,4 mm6 km/h

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NecaxaPossession control

PueblaLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Necaxa (56%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 4.45 (+12 %)

1 · Necaxa 56%X 24%20% Puebla · 2

56%

24%

20%

Analysis: Necaxa – Puebla

Erik Lindberg · 4 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: With rain forecasted at 3.0 mm, the wet conditions might tilt this Liga MX clash in favor of a more conservative approach, yet the model suggests a different narrative. Necaxa, projected to control possession, faces a Puebla side content with sitting deep and hitting on the break. Despite their defensive setup, the visitors might find themselves overwhelmed against a Necaxa team who hold a strong historical edge with three wins and a draw in their last four encounters. However, the small sample size means this head-to-head record may mislead more than illuminate.

The model leans heavily toward Necaxa, giving them a 56% chance of victory compared to Puebla's 20%. Their expected goals of 2.06 outshine Puebla's 1.31, indicating a likely control of the game's tempo. Despite having fewer points in the league, Necaxa's playing style and higher expected xG per match (1.5 compared to Puebla's 1.2) suggest they can unlock Puebla's defense, particularly at home.

The most probable scorelines tell a story of moderate scoring, with 2-1 and 1-1 both hovering at 10% likelihood. While a 2-0 result for the home side lingers at 7%, the probabilities favor a match that sees both teams finding the net. Such odds align with the 64% chance of both teams scoring and a 66% possibility of over 2.5 goals being scored, despite the weather's potential dampening effect.

For those looking to bet, the best value lies with backing Necaxa to win, reflecting the model's strong lean. With both teams struggling defensively, under the rainy skies, a 2-1 home victory seems the most plausible outcome — a cautious yet rewarding punt for the diligent bettor.

Necaxa

Form WLLDL

League ranking xG #9xGA #11xT #12xP/match #8Points #12

Key players

Julián Simón CarranzaFxG 0.62 · xT 0.04
Ricardo MonrealRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.19
Daniel Ulises LeyvaCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.16

Puebla

Form LDWWL

League ranking xG #12xGA #6xT #17xP/match #5Points #8

Key players

Brayan GarnicaRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.10
Kevin VelascoRWxG 0.30 · xT 0.18
Eduardo Mustre TorresFxG 0.23 · xT 0.01

Match prediction: Necaxa – Puebla

Predicted score matrix

Puebla →

Necaxa →

0–03.7%

0–14.2%

0–22.9%

0–31.3%

0–4+0.6%

1–06.8%

1–19.5%

1–26.1%

1–32.7%

1–4+1.2%

2–07.3%

2–19.6%

2–26.3%

2–32.7%

2–4+1.2%

3–05.0%

3–16.6%

3–24.3%

3–31.9%

3–4+0.8%

4+–04.2%

4+–15.5%

4+–23.6%

4+–31.6%

4+–4+0.7%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-110%
2.1-110%
3.2-07%
4.1-07%
5.3-17%

Expected goals

2,06–1,31

Both teams to score

64%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

220%

322%

418%

5+25%

Under 2,534%

@2.22

Over 2,566%

@1.60EV+5%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Necaxa to win56%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Necaxa to win56%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Julián Simón Carranza to score35%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score64%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Julián Simón Carranza to score35%
Sergio Abel Sanabria Ortega to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 4.525% probability@4.45BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
Over 4.525% probability@4.45BetssonEV+12%reference odds
Over 4.525% probability@4.45NordicbetEV+12%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Necaxa	X	2 · Puebla
Betsafe	EV+ 10% 1.98	3.45	3.45
Betsson	EV+ 10% 1.98	3.45	3.45
Nordicbet	EV+ 10% 1.98	3.45	3.45
Pinnacle	EV+ 9% 1.96	3.73	3.61

Odds updated 7 Sept, 07:36

Odds movement

1-4 %

50 %45 %

2.04 → 1.96

X+2 %

28 %23 %

3.65 → 3.73

2+5 %

29 %24 %

3.43 → 3.61

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 07/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Necaxa 3Draw 1Puebla 0

Goals: 6–1 (⌀ 1,8)

Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Necaxa

Puebla

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Necaxa (8–11)

Puebla (9–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Necaxa

Puebla

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Necaxa

Puebla

The teams in numbers

Performance	Necaxa	Puebla
Points	7	10
xPoints	8.3	9.9
xG per match	1.5	1.2
xGA per match	1.4	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.1	0.1
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.17

Playing style	Necaxa	Puebla
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.43	0.41
xT per match	0.95	0.75
xTA per match	1.1	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	24	20
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.23
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.16
Entries into the box per match	12	9
Entries into the box against	14	16
Pass completion %	0.76	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.72
Passes per match	331	273
Passes against per match	333	481
Switches of play per match	28	30.1
Long balls per match	36	39

Set pieces	Necaxa	Puebla
xG from free kicks	0.03	0
Corners per match	5.8	4.8
Corners against per match	5	5.8
xG per corner	0.05	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.31	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.43	0.59

Other	Necaxa	Puebla
Throw-in control	0.63	0.62

The goalkeepers	Luis Ronaldo Jiménez González (Necaxa)	Daniel Gutierrez (Puebla)
Saves	23	20
Save %	70%	71%
xG prevented	53%	51%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Necaxa vs Puebla according to our model?

The model gives Necaxa a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Necaxa 56%, draw 24%, Puebla 20%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.