Tijuana vs Querétaro: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Liga MX12 September 2026 05:00 CESTEstadio Caliente, Tijuana26°19 km/h

Läs på svenska

TijuanaBalanced & physical

QuerétaroLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Tijuana (51%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.06 (+8 %)

1 · Tijuana 51%X 27%22% Querétaro · 2

51%

27%

22%

Analysis: Tijuana – Querétaro

Marcus Johansson · 7 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Tijuana's balanced and physical approach is likely to control the tempo against Querétaro's low-defense, direct style. With the hosts winning 56% of their home matches all-time and a perfect head-to-head record since 2023, the scales tip in their favor. Querétaro's direct play might struggle to find openings against a side that generally concedes less than a goal per match on average.

Looking at the numbers, Tijuana is favored with a 51% likelihood according to the model, and its expected goals (1.54) significantly surpass Querétaro's (1.03). Despite the visitors' ability to score, reflected in the 51% chance for both teams to find the net, Tijuana's defensive solidity and home advantage make a clean sheet plausible. The most likely scorelines suggest a close affair, with 1-1 and 1-0 outcomes reflecting the expected strategies and respective team strengths.

However, the over/under 2.5 goals probability is finely balanced at 48%, hinting at a match that could either break open or stay tight. Given the tactical profiles, a closely contested game seems probable, with Tijuana possibly edging it 1-0 or 2-1. The small head-to-head sample size (four matches) should be taken with caution, but Tijuana's recent dominance can't be ignored.

For those looking to capitalize on value, the home win at odds of 2.08 presents a 6% edge with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, according to the model. This assessment does not guarantee a result but strongly suggests Tijuana as the more likely victor. Ending on this firm betting angle aligns with the analyzed probabilities and offers a potential sweet spot for bettors focused on value.

Tijuana

Form WDWLW

League ranking xG #5xGA #3xT #4xP/match #1Points #4

Key players

Gilberto MoraFxG 0.87 · xT 0.12
Ignacio RiveroRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.02
Ivan TonaCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.16

Querétaro

Form WWDLW

League ranking xG #8xGA #14xT #5xP/match #6Points #7

Key players

Ali AvilaFxG 0.48 · xT 0.05
Carlo Adriano García PradesCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.04
Santiago HomenchenkoCDMxG 0.38 · xT 0.14

Match prediction: Tijuana – Querétaro

Predicted score matrix

Querétaro →

Tijuana →

0–08.0%

0–17.5%

0–24.1%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.5%

1–011.4%

1–112.5%

1–26.3%

1–32.2%

1–4+0.7%

2–09.1%

2–19.4%

2–24.8%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.5%

3–04.7%

3–14.8%

3–22.5%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.5%

4+–12.6%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.2-09%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,54–1,03

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,552%

@2.06EV+4%

Over 2,548%

@1.77

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Tijuana to win51%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Tijuana to win51%
Under 2.5 goals52%
Jonathan Yael Padilla Sandoval to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Jonathan Yael Padilla Sandoval to score21%
Lucas Nicolás Abascia to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.552% probability@2.06PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
Under 2.552% probability@1.98BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
Under 2.552% probability@1.98BetssonEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Tijuana	X	2 · Querétaro
Betsafe	EV+ 1% 1.98	3.40	3.55
Betsson	EV+ 1% 1.98	3.40	3.55
Nordicbet	EV+ 1% 1.98	3.40	3.55
Pinnacle	1.95	3.38	4.03

Odds updated 10 Sept, 10:37

Odds movement

1-5 %

50 %45 %

2.05 → 1.95

X+3 %

31 %26 %

3.27 → 3.38

2+6 %

27 %22 %

3.81 → 4.03

Over 2,5-1 %

56 %51 %

1.78 → 1.77

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 10/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Tijuana 4Draw 0Querétaro 0

Goals: 7–3 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

Key facts

Club Tijuana win 56% of their home matches all-time (43 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Tijuana

Querétaro

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Tijuana (10–7)

Querétaro (9–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Tijuana

Querétaro

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Tijuana

Querétaro

The teams in numbers

Performance	Tijuana	Querétaro
Points	13	10
xPoints	11.4	9.6
xG per match	1.6	1.5
xGA per match	0.99	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.18
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.1	0.19

Playing style	Tijuana	Querétaro
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.33
Field tilt	0.34	0.48
xT per match	1.1	1.1
xTA per match	1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	19	22
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.18	0.21
Entries into the box per match	11	11
Entries into the box against	13	15
Pass completion %	0.79	0.71
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.7
Passes per match	337	242
Passes against per match	446	372
Switches of play per match	31.1	18.8
Long balls per match	38	28

Set pieces	Tijuana	Querétaro
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.05
Corners per match	2.8	3.9
Corners against per match	5.8	6.9
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.76	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.51	0.48

Other	Tijuana	Querétaro
Throw-in control	0.74	0.57

The goalkeepers	Antonio Rodriguez (Tijuana)	Guillermo Allison (Querétaro)
Saves	18	16
Save %	72%	73%
xG prevented	47%	49%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Tijuana vs Querétaro according to our model?

The model gives Tijuana a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tijuana 51%, draw 27%, Querétaro 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.