Deportivo Toluca vs Atlas: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Liga MX12 September 2026Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca15°2,7 mm14 km/h

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Deportivo TolucaPossession control

AtlasPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Deportivo Toluca (74%)

1 · Deportivo Toluca 74%X 16%10% Atlas · 2

74%

16%

Analysis: Deportivo Toluca – Atlas

Oscar Nilsson · 11 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Deportivo Toluca have dominated their recent encounters with Atlas, remaining unbeaten in their last four meetings. With the model assigning a hefty 74% probability to a Toluca victory, the hosts are positioned as clear favorites. This is further reflected in their strong home win rate of 69% over 45 matches. The projected scorelines of 2-0 and 3-0 underline the home side's dominance, supported by their superior xG of 2.50 against Atlas's 0.85.

The matchup between these two possession-oriented teams might not be as evenly matched as their tactical similarities suggest. Toluca's xG per match of 1.9 significantly outstrips Atlas's 1.2, while their defensive solidity is evident in an xGA of 0.96 compared to the visitors' more vulnerable 1.6. The head-to-head record carries less weight due to the small sample size, but it still favors the hosts.

Toluca's style of play and their home advantage suggest a likely over 2.5 goals scenario, with a 65% chance of it happening. The expected rainfall of 2.7 mm might marginally affect scoring, but it is already accounted for in the model's numbers. This makes a 2-0 or 3-0 outcome plausible, with both teams scoring sitting at a 53% probability, hinting at a potential defensive lapse from the hosts.

For bettors, the standout angle is the apparent value on a Toluca win. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offer odds of 1.5, providing a 10% edge according to the model's 74% win probability for the hosts. This creates a compelling opportunity for those looking to back Toluca in this encounter.

Deportivo Toluca

Form LWDWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #7xP/match #4Points #3

Key players

Hélio Júnio Nunes de CastroRWxG 0.45 · xT 0.17
Santiago SimónRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.12
Alexis VegaLWxG 0.46 · xT 0.20

Atlas

Form LWWLD

League ranking xG #12xGA #17xT #15xP/match #16Points #5

Key players

Florián Gonzalo de Jesús MonzónFxG 0.46 · xT 0.01
Sergio Ismael Hernández FloresFxG 0.08 · xT 0.31
Arturo GonzalezCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Deportivo Toluca – Atlas

Predicted score matrix

Atlas →

Deportivo Toluca →

0–03.7%

0–12.8%

0–21.3%

0–30.4%

0–4+0.1%

1–08.6%

1–17.7%

1–23.2%

1–30.9%

1–4+0.2%

2–010.9%

2–19.3%

2–24.0%

2–31.1%

2–4+0.3%

3–09.1%

3–17.8%

3–23.3%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.2%

4+–010.3%

4+–18.8%

4+–23.7%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-011%
2.2-19%
3.3-09%
4.1-09%
5.3-18%

Expected goals

2,50–0,85

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

111%

220%

322%

418%

5+25%

Under 2,535%

@2.28

Over 2,565%

@1.60EV+4%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Deportivo Toluca to win74%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Deportivo Toluca to win74%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Jesús Ricardo Angulo Uriarte to score35%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Jesús Ricardo Angulo Uriarte to score35%
Aldo Paúl Rocha González to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Deportivo Toluca74% probability@1.50BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
1 · Deportivo Toluca74% probability@1.50BetssonEV+10%reference odds
1 · Deportivo Toluca74% probability@1.50NordicbetEV+10%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Deportivo Toluca	X	2 · Atlas
Betsafe	EV+ 10% 1.50	4.05	5.90
Betsson	EV+ 10% 1.50	4.05	5.90
Nordicbet	EV+ 10% 1.50	4.05	5.90
Pinnacle	EV+ 10% 1.49	4.32	6.30

Odds updated 11 Sept, 12:24

Odds movement

10 %

66 %61 %

1.49 → 1.49

X0 %

24 %19 %

4.32 → 4.32

20 %

17 %12 %

6.30 → 6.30

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Deportivo Toluca 2Draw 2Atlas 0

Goals: 8–4 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

Key facts

Deportivo Toluca win 69% of their home matches all-time (45 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Deportivo Toluca

Atlas

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Deportivo Toluca (12–4)

Atlas (10–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Deportivo Toluca

Atlas

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Deportivo Toluca

Atlas

The teams in numbers

Performance	Deportivo Toluca	Atlas
Points	13	13
xPoints	9.9	7.8
xG per match	1.9	1.2
xGA per match	0.96	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.37	0.41
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.13	0.42

Playing style	Deportivo Toluca	Atlas
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.28
Field tilt	0.65	0.45
xT per match	1.1	0.81
xTA per match	0.87	1
Won balls, offensive half	31	21
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.3
Entries into the box per match	18	10
Entries into the box against	12	13
Pass completion %	0.82	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.71
Passes per match	535	344
Passes against per match	279	322
Switches of play per match	39	28.9
Long balls per match	49	32

Set pieces	Deportivo Toluca	Atlas
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.11
Corners per match	6.2	4
Corners against per match	5.3	5.5
xG per corner	0.01	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.31	0.57
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.68

Other	Deportivo Toluca	Atlas
Throw-in control	0.71	0.72

The goalkeepers	Luis Garcia (Deportivo Toluca)	Camilo Vargas (Atlas)
Saves	8	17
Save %	89%	71%
xG prevented	37%	51%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Deportivo Toluca

Fixtures, form & tips

Atlas

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Deportivo Toluca vs Atlas according to our model?

The model gives Deportivo Toluca a 74% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Deportivo Toluca 74%, draw 16%, Atlas 10%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.