FC Juárez vs Pachuca: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

Liga MX5 September 2026 05:00 CESTEstadio Olímpico Benito Juárez, Ciudad Juárez28°0,3 mm19 km/h

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FC JuárezLow block & direct

PachucaCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · Pachuca (51%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.18 (+9 %)

1 · FC Juárez 23%X 27%51% Pachuca · 2

23%

27%

51%

Analysis: FC Juárez – Pachuca

Sofia Andersson · 31 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

FC Juárez's six-game losing streak overshadows their historical edge in this matchup. Despite winning twice in the past five meetings with Pachuca, the hosts' abysmal current form places them on shaky ground. Juárez's expected goals of 1.02 pale against Pachuca's 1.65, a gap that suggests Juárez will struggle to convert chances against a well-organized visitor defense.

Pachuca arrives with a clear statistical advantage. Not only do they lead in points and expected points, but their average xG per match—1.3 compared to Juárez's 0.55—illustrates a more consistent offensive output. The visitors' style of counter-attacking and utilizing crosses could exploit Juárez's direct but vulnerable defensive setup. The model sees Pachuca as 51% favorites, aligning with their superior metrics across the board.

For those seeking a sharp betting angle, the under 0.5 goals market presents an enticing value. At odds of 15.0 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, and rated as a 7% likelihood by the model, this bet offers a 9% edge. While it reflects a long shot, the payoff could be significant if Juárez's offensive struggles continue and Pachuca opts for a cautious approach.

FC Juárez

Form LLLLL

League ranking xG #18xGA #18xT #18xP/match #18Points #18

Key players

Oscar EstupinanFxG 0.18 · xT -0.01
Denzell Arturo García BojorquezCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.04
Jose Luis RodriguezCAMxG 0.05 · xT 0.13

Pachuca

Form LLLDD

League ranking xG #10xGA #15xT #5xP/match #12Points #15

Key players

Salomon RondonFxG 0.62 · xT 0.02
Oussama IdrissiLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.28
Elias MontielCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.07

Match prediction: FC Juárez – Pachuca

Predicted score matrix

Pachuca →

FC Juárez →

0–07.3%

0–111.1%

0–29.4%

0–35.2%

0–4+3.1%

1–06.7%

1–112.0%

1–29.6%

1–35.3%

1–4+3.2%

2–03.6%

2–15.9%

2–24.9%

2–32.7%

2–4+1.6%

3–01.2%

3–12.0%

3–21.7%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.4%

4+–10.6%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-111%
3.1-210%
4.0-29%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,02–1,65

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

@2.18EV+9%

Over 2,550%

@1.88

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Pachuca to win51%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Pachuca to win51%
Under 2.5 goals50%
Rodolfo Gilbert Pizarro Thomas to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Rodolfo Gilbert Pizarro Thomas to score23%
Ramón Rodríguez Jiménez to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.550% probability@2.18PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
2 · Pachuca51% probability@2.04PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
2 · Pachuca51% probability@1.98BetsafeEV+0%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · FC Juárez	X	2 · Pachuca
Betsafe	3.55	3.40	EV+ 0% 1.98
Betsson	3.55	3.40	EV+ 0% 1.98
Nordicbet	3.55	3.40	EV+ 0% 1.98
Pinnacle	3.44	3.65	EV+ 3% 2.04

Odds updated 2 Sept, 17:36

Odds movement

1-3 %

30 %25 %

3.55 → 3.44

X-1 %

28 %23 %

3.69 → 3.65

2+3 %

50 %45 %

1.99 → 2.04

Over 2,50 %

59 %54 %

1.68 → 1.69

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 02/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

FC Juárez 2Draw 2Pachuca 1

Goals: 7–7 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

Key facts

FC Juarez dominate this fixture historically: 2 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
FC Juarez have lost 6 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

FC Juárez

Pachuca

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

FC Juárez (3–19)

Pachuca (8–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

FC Juárez

Pachuca

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

FC Juárez

Pachuca

The teams in numbers

Performance	FC Juárez	Pachuca
Points	0	5
xPoints	3.6	7.6
xG per match	0.55	1.3
xGA per match	2.3	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.16	0.22
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.56	0.11

Playing style	FC Juárez	Pachuca
Build-up efficiency	0.27	0.32
Field tilt	0.33	0.48
xT per match	0.65	1.1
xTA per match	1.4	1
Won balls, offensive half	27	26
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.19
Entries into the box per match	11	11
Entries into the box against	21	13
Pass completion %	0.72	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.73
Passes per match	297	311
Passes against per match	476	397
Switches of play per match	23.7	31.7
Long balls per match	32	43

Set pieces	FC Juárez	Pachuca
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.12
Corners per match	3	4.6
Corners against per match	8.5	4.8
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.53	0.57
First touch, defensive corners %	0.48	0.66

Other	FC Juárez	Pachuca
Throw-in control	0.6	0.67

The goalkeepers	Sebastian Jurado (FC Juárez)	Carlos Moreno (Pachuca)
Saves	29	19
Save %	62%	70%
xG prevented	32%	28%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins FC Juárez vs Pachuca according to our model?

The model gives Pachuca a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FC Juárez 23%, draw 27%, Pachuca 51%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.