01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Tigres UANL to win61%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Liga MXEstadio Olímpico Benito Juárez, Ciudad Juárez23°5,2 mm32 km/h
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FC JuárezPossession controlvs
Tigres UANLPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Tigres UANL (61%)
FC Juárez – Tigres UANL · Liga MX
1 · FC Juárez 17%X 22%61% Tigres UANL · 2
17%
22%
61%
Analysis: FC Juárez – Tigres UANL
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
The odds on a Tigres win at 1.75 with Bet365 are not supported by any data in the FACTS provided.
Corrected text:
Seven losses on the bounce mark a bleak period for FC Juárez, and nothing in their numbers suggests a turnaround against Tigres UANL. The visitors hold a commanding 61% win probability, backed up by superior expected goals: 2.02 for Tigres compared to just 1.02 for Juárez. The pendulum firmly swings towards Tigres, making them the team to back.
Tigres, with their possession and high press style, appear perfectly equipped to exploit a Juárez side struggling defensively, conceding an average of 2.1 xGA per match. While the hosts aim to control possession, it's an approach that hasn't translated into results or goals, evidenced by their meager 0.55 xG per match. Tigres, far more effective in front of goal, are poised to capitalize.
The head-to-head record is a curious anomaly: 2 wins apiece in a small sample of four matches since 2023. But with Juárez's current form and Tigres' dominance in xPoints (8.5 vs. 4.6), this historical quirk seems unlikely to repeat. The most likely scorelines favor Tigres, with 1-2 and 0-2 outcomes both given a 10% probability, reinforcing the idea of a victory for the visitors.
With a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals, the match leans towards a more open affair, despite Juárez's attacking struggles. The odds favor both teams to score, at 56%, but given Juárez's dire form, a Tigres clean sheet also holds appeal.
In a matchup where every statistic tilts towards Tigres, the visitors should make light work of Juárez's frailties.
FC JuárezForm LLLLL
League ranking xG #18xGA #18xT #18xP/match #18Points #18
Key players
- Oscar EstupinanFxG 0.17 · xT -0.01
- Jose Luis RodriguezLWxG 0.05 · xT 0.11
- Denzell Arturo García BojorquezCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.04
Tigres UANLForm LLWDD
League ranking xG #7xGA #12xT #12xP/match #14Points #15
Key players
- Juan BrunettaCAMxG 0.61 · xT 0.25
- Rodrigo Sebastián Aguirre SotoFxG 0.24 · xT 0.00
- Diego LainezRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.14
Match prediction: FC Juárez – Tigres UANL
Predicted score matrix
Tigres UANL →
FC Juárez →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.1%
0–19.4%
0–29.8%
0–36.6%
0–4+5.3%
1
1–04.6%
1–110.2%
1–210.0%
1–36.7%
1–4+5.4%
2
2–02.5%
2–15.0%
2–25.1%
2–33.4%
2–4+2.7%
3
3–00.8%
3–11.7%
3–21.7%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.9%
4+
4+–00.3%
4+–10.5%
4+–20.5%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.1-210%
- 3.0-210%
- 4.0-19%
- 5.1-37%
Expected goals
1,02–2,02
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,542%
–
Over 2,558%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Tigres UANL to win61%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Juan Francisco Brunetta to score32%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Juan Francisco Brunetta to score32%
- Gilberto Sepúlveda López to be booked23%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesFC Juárez 2Draw 0Tigres UANL 2
Goals: 3–3 (⌀ 1,5)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Key facts
- FC Juarez have lost 7 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
FC Juárez
Tigres UANL
FC Juárez (3–21)
Tigres UANL (9–11)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
FC Juárez
Tigres UANL
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
FC Juárez
Tigres UANL
The teams in numbers
| Performance | FC Juárez | Tigres UANL |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 6 |
| xPoints | 4.6 | 8.5 |
| xG per match | 0.55 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.16 | 0.2 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.5 | 0.17 |
| Playing style | FC Juárez | Tigres UANL |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.34 | 0.61 |
| xT per match | 0.67 | 0.94 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 0.79 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 30 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 17 |
| Entries into the box against | 19 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.73 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 309 | 366 |
| Passes against per match | 454 | 306 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.1 | 30.5 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 33 |
| Set pieces | FC Juárez | Tigres UANL |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.09 |
| Corners per match | 2.7 | 7.5 |
| Corners against per match | 7.6 | 3.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.43 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.49 | 0.5 |
| Other | FC Juárez | Tigres UANL |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| The goalkeepers | Sebastian Jurado (FC Juárez) | Nahuel Guzman (Tigres UANL) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 31 | 21 |
| Save % | 61% | 66% |
| xG prevented | 31% | 48% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins FC Juárez vs Tigres UANL according to our model?
The model gives Tigres UANL a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FC Juárez 17%, draw 22%, Tigres UANL 61%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.