Liga MXEstadio Olímpico Universitario, Mexico City19°24,3 mm16 km/h

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    Pumas UNAMPumas UNAMPossession control
    3–1
    LeónLeónPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Pumas UNAM (51%)

    Pumas UNAM – León · Liga MX

    1 · Pumas UNAM 51%X 27%22% León · 2

    Analysis: Pumas UNAM – León

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    Pumas UNAM and León have faced each other four times since 2023, with Pumas unbeaten in this small sample, securing two wins and two draws. However, when looking at their respective performances this season, León holds a slight advantage in both points and expected points. This could suggest that while Pumas has had the upper hand in direct encounters, León's overall form this season might give them an edge.

    Digging deeper into the expected goals, León appears slightly stronger with an xG of 1.3 per match compared to Pumas' 1.0. This suggests León could generate more scoring opportunities. Interestingly though, Pumas shows a marginally better xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball, highlighting their quick transition capability. With both teams employing possession-oriented styles, this clash could evolve into a tactical battle for midfield supremacy rather than a goal-fest.

    The model indicates a 51% probability for a home win, favoring Pumas UNAM, with the most likely scorelines being 1-1 and 1-0. Given the expected goals of 1.63 for Pumas and 1.04 for León, the match could go either way — leaning slightly towards a low-scoring affair. The over/under is finely balanced at 50%, suggesting no strong skew toward multiple goals despite the rain potentially dampening attacking flair.

    For bettors, there is a slight value in backing Pumas at odds of 1.98 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet, as the model edge is 1%. While no bet is a guarantee, this represents a small but statistically supported opportunity. Pumas UNAM might just edge this one, making a narrow 1-0 victory a plausible outcome under the wet conditions.

    Pumas UNAMPumas UNAM
    Form WWDDL
    League ranking xG #16xGA #7xT #9xP/match #15Points #11
    Key players
    • Sebastian CordovaFxG 0.10 · xT 0.11
    • Robert MoralesFxG 0.14 · xT 0.06
    • Nathan SilvaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.05
    LeónLeón
    Form LWWWD
    League ranking xG #11xGA #8xT #14xP/match #7Points #7
    Key players
    • Diber CambindoFxG 0.36 · xT 0.03
    • Rodrigo EcheverriaFxG 0.02 · xT 0.00
    • Daniel Felipe Arcila RojasLWxG 0.40 · xT 0.13
    Final score
    3 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Pumas UNAM 51% · Draw 27% · León 22%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Pumas UNAMBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,69fair 7,68-13 %
    Hit
    Matchresultat - LeónBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 12,21fair 18,69-35 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Pumas UNAM – León

    Predicted score matrix

    León →
    Pumas UNAM →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.3%
    0–16.9%
    0–23.7%
    0–31.3%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–011.0%
    1–112.1%
    1–26.1%
    1–32.1%
    1–4+0.7%
    2
    2–09.2%
    2–19.6%
    2–25.0%
    2–31.7%
    2–4+0.6%
    3
    3–05.0%
    3–15.2%
    3–22.7%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–02.9%
    4+–13.0%
    4+–21.6%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.2-110%
    4. 4.2-09%
    5. 5.0-07%
    Expected goals
    1,63–1,04
    Both teams to score
    52%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,550%
    @2.14EV+8%
    Over 2,550%
    @1.85

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Pumas UNAM to win51%
    • Under 3.5 goals72%

    Combined probability

    35%

    Fair odds

    2.87

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Pumas UNAM to win51%
    • Under 2.5 goals50%
    • Olávio Vieira dos Santos Júnior to score22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score52%
    • Over 2.5 goals50%
    • Olávio Vieira dos Santos Júnior to score22%
    • Juan José Guevara Possú to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Pumas UNAM51% probability@2.10PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
    • Under 2.550% probability@2.14PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
    • 1 · Pumas UNAM51% probability@1.98BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Pumas UNAMX2 · León
    Betsafe
    EV+ 1%
    1.98    		3.403.55
    Betsson
    EV+ 1%
    1.98    		3.403.55
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 1%
    1.98    		3.403.55
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 8%
    2.10    		3.683.45

    Odds updated 10 Sept, 16:06

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 31 August — the odds have shortened from 1.88 to 1.75 (−7%).

    1+4 %
    48 %43 %

    2.01 → 2.10

    X+4 %
    29 %24 %

    3.54 → 3.68

    2-5 %
    30 %25 %

    3.63 → 3.45

    Over 2,5-7 %
    55 %50 %

    1.88 → 1.75

    Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 10/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Pumas UNAM 2Draw 2León 0
    Goals: 8–4 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Pumas UNAM
    León
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Pumas UNAM (8–8)
    León (8–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Pumas UNAM
    Nathan Silva: 270 passningar, xT 0.2SilvaRuben Duarte: 217 passningar, xT 0.42DuarteRodrigo Lopez: 187 passningar, xT 1.08LopezVictor Arteaga: 145 passningar, xT 0.29ArteagaPedro Jeampierre Vite Uca: 144 passningar, xT 0.12UcaKeylor Antonio Navas Gamboa: 132 passningar, xT -0.02GamboaUriel Antuna: 107 passningar, xT 0.86AntunaAdalberto Carrasquilla: 83 passningar, xT 0.49CarrasquillaPablo Bennevendo: 65 passningar, xT 0.56BennevendoÁlvaro Anyiver Angulo Mosquera: 62 passningar, xT 0.03MosqueraAntonio Jeremiah Leone Larios: 60 passningar, xT 0.25Larios
    León
    Juan José Guevara Possú: 246 passningar, xT 0.23PossúJhohan Sebastián Romaña Espitia: 147 passningar, xT 0.18EspitiaIvan Rodriguez: 145 passningar, xT 0.16RodriguezJordi Cortizo: 134 passningar, xT 0.42CortizoOscar Garcia: 132 passningar, xT 0.33GarciaSebastian Vegas: 130 passningar, xT 0.2VegasRodrigo Echeverria: 125 passningar, xT -0.01EcheverriaFernando Beltran: 111 passningar, xT 0.5BeltranIvan Moreno: 103 passningar, xT 0.27MorenoDaniel Felipe Arcila Rojas: 73 passningar, xT 0.19RojasPaul Bellon: 63 passningar, xT 0.06Bellon
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Pumas UNAM
    Nathan Silva: 270 passningar, xT 0.2SilvaRuben Duarte: 217 passningar, xT 0.42DuarteRodrigo Lopez: 187 passningar, xT 1.08LopezVictor Arteaga: 145 passningar, xT 0.29ArteagaPedro Jeampierre Vite Uca: 144 passningar, xT 0.12UcaKeylor Antonio Navas Gamboa: 132 passningar, xT -0.02GamboaUriel Antuna: 107 passningar, xT 0.86AntunaAdalberto Carrasquilla: 83 passningar, xT 0.49CarrasquillaPablo Bennevendo: 65 passningar, xT 0.56BennevendoÁlvaro Anyiver Angulo Mosquera: 62 passningar, xT 0.03MosqueraAntonio Jeremiah Leone Larios: 60 passningar, xT 0.25Larios
    León
    Juan José Guevara Possú: 246 passningar, xT 0.23PossúJhohan Sebastián Romaña Espitia: 147 passningar, xT 0.18EspitiaIvan Rodriguez: 145 passningar, xT 0.16RodriguezJordi Cortizo: 134 passningar, xT 0.42CortizoOscar Garcia: 132 passningar, xT 0.33GarciaSebastian Vegas: 130 passningar, xT 0.2VegasRodrigo Echeverria: 125 passningar, xT -0.01EcheverriaFernando Beltran: 111 passningar, xT 0.5BeltranIvan Moreno: 103 passningar, xT 0.27MorenoDaniel Felipe Arcila Rojas: 73 passningar, xT 0.19RojasPaul Bellon: 63 passningar, xT 0.06Bellon

    The teams in numbers

    PerformancePumas UNAMLeón
    Points810
    xPoints6.98.8
    xG per match11.3
    xGA per match1.31.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.190.17
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.140.18
    Playing stylePumas UNAMLeón
    Build-up efficiency0.30.32
    Field tilt0.460.45
    xT per match1.10.81
    xTA per match0.991.2
    Won balls, offensive half2426
    Pressing intensity0.250.23
    Pressing efficiency0.30.28
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.260.22
    Entries into the box per match1212
    Entries into the box against1211
    Pass completion %0.770.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.730.7
    Passes per match374331
    Passes against per match368373
    Switches of play per match31.824.9
    Long balls per match3530
    Set piecesPumas UNAMLeón
    xG from free kicks0.030.07
    Corners per match54.6
    Corners against per match3.95.1
    xG per corner0.010.03
    xGA per corner against0.010.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.330.5
    First touch, defensive corners %0.610.71
    OtherPumas UNAMLeón
    Throw-in control0.660.68
    The goalkeepersKeylor Antonio Navas Gamboa (Pumas UNAM)Oscar Garcia (León)
    Saves1521
    Save %65%78%
    xG prevented37%48%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Pumas UNAM
    Fixtures, form & tips
    León
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Pumas UNAM vs León according to our model?

    The model gives Pumas UNAM a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Pumas UNAM 51%, draw 27%, León 22%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.