Santos Laguna vs FC Juárez: Prediction & Odds (14 Sept 2026)

Liga MX14 September 2026 02:00 CESTEstadio Corona, Torreón28°37 km/h

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Santos LagunaCounter-attacks & crosses

FC JuárezPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Santos Laguna (45%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.42 (+14 %)

1 · Santos Laguna 45%X 30%25% FC Juárez · 2

45%

30%

25%

Analysis: Santos Laguna – FC Juárez

Erik Lindberg · 10 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Santos Laguna's narrow edge in model probabilities might be the only comfort for them as they face FC Juárez, despite a head-to-head record that taunts them with zero wins and three losses in four recent encounters. Yet, the visitors' seven-match losing streak looms large, suggesting a vulnerability that the hosts are well-poised to exploit.

The expected goals narrative supports a slight advantage for Santos, with their 1.50 xG compared to Juárez's 1.29. It's a subtle nod toward a match where the hosts are expected to capitalize on their counter-attacking strengths against a side struggling to find defensive stability. However, the models also predict a tightly contested battle, with 1-1 as the most likely scoreline at 12%, closely followed by 2-1 and 1-0 outcomes for the hosts.

An over 2.5 goals probability of 53% and a 57% chance for both teams to score suggest an open game, yet neither side has shown the finishing prowess to comfortably convert opportunities into a goal-fest. Santos Laguna's higher xPoints and lower xGA per match further underline their defensive edge, which might be just enough to tip the scales in their favor.

While the narrative of a home victory is compelling, the betting landscape offers an intriguing angle. The under 0.5 goals at odds of 17.0 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet presents a value play, with a model rating of 6% offering a rare 10% edge — a long shot, certainly, but an edge nonetheless.

In this encounter, the numbers nudge us towards a narrow Santos win, likely 2-1, with a lean towards the over 2.5 goals market. But for those searching for value, the long odds on a scoreless draw provide a tantalizing, if improbable, opportunity.

Santos Laguna

Form LLLDL

League ranking xG #15xGA #15xT #8xP/match #17Points #17

Key players

Emmanuel EcheverriaLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.24
Fran VillalbaCAMxG 0.12 · xT 0.17
Felipe SánchezCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.08

FC Juárez

Form LLLLL

League ranking xG #18xGA #18xT #18xP/match #18Points #18

Key players

Oscar EstupinanFxG 0.17 · xT -0.01
Jose Luis RodriguezLWxG 0.05 · xT 0.11
Denzell Arturo García BojorquezCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.04

Match prediction: Santos Laguna – FC Juárez

Predicted score matrix

FC Juárez →

Santos Laguna →

0–06.5%

0–17.6%

0–25.1%

0–32.2%

0–4+1.0%

1–08.8%

1–112.2%

1–27.7%

1–33.3%

1–4+1.4%

2–06.9%

2–18.9%

2–25.8%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.1%

3–03.4%

3–14.4%

3–22.9%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.8%

4+–12.3%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-09%
4.1-28%
5.0-18%

Expected goals

1,50–1,29

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@2.42EV+14%

Over 2,553%

@1.52

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Santos Laguna or draw (1X)68%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Santos Laguna or draw (1X)68%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Ezequiel Eduardo Bullaude to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Ezequiel Eduardo Bullaude to score23%
Gilberto Sepúlveda López to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.547% probability@2.42BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
Under 2.547% probability@2.42BetssonEV+14%reference odds
Under 2.547% probability@2.42NordicbetEV+14%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Santos Laguna	X	2 · FC Juárez
Betsafe	1.92	EV+ 7% 3.60	3.55
Betsson	1.92	EV+ 7% 3.60	3.55
Nordicbet	1.92	EV+ 7% 3.60	3.55
Pinnacle	2.00	EV+ 10% 3.71	3.51

Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:39

Odds movement

10 %

50 %45 %

2.01 → 2.00

X+1 %

28 %23 %

3.66 → 3.71

20 %

30 %25 %

3.52 → 3.51

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Santos Laguna 0Draw 1FC Juárez 3

Goals: 3–7 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

Key facts

FC Juarez have lost 7 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Santos Laguna

FC Juárez

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Santos Laguna (4–12)

FC Juárez (3–21)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Santos Laguna

FC Juárez

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Santos Laguna

FC Juárez

The teams in numbers

Performance	Santos Laguna	FC Juárez
Points	1	0
xPoints	6.9	4.6
xG per match	1	0.55
xGA per match	1.5	2.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.11	0.16
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.5

Playing style	Santos Laguna	FC Juárez
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.27
Field tilt	0.46	0.34
xT per match	1.1	0.67
xTA per match	1.1	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	22	27
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.23
Entries into the box per match	13	10
Entries into the box against	14	19
Pass completion %	0.78	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.69
Passes per match	388	309
Passes against per match	416	454
Switches of play per match	38.1	24.1
Long balls per match	42	32

Set pieces	Santos Laguna	FC Juárez
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.01
Corners per match	7.1	2.7
Corners against per match	5.6	7.6
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.47	0.56
First touch, defensive corners %	0.51	0.49

Other	Santos Laguna	FC Juárez
Throw-in control	0.66	0.64

The goalkeepers	Carlos Acevedo (Santos Laguna)	Sebastian Jurado (FC Juárez)
Saves	36	31
Save %	75%	61%
xG prevented	51%	31%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Santos Laguna

Fixtures, form & tips

FC Juárez

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Santos Laguna vs FC Juárez according to our model?

The model gives Santos Laguna a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Santos Laguna 45%, draw 30%, FC Juárez 25%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.