01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Brann to win50%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Norwegian Eliteserien13°5,9 mm22 km/h
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BrannPossession control1–2
LillestrømPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Brann (50%)Best value by the model: 2 · Lillestrøm @ 4.37 (+17 %)
Brann – Lillestrøm · Norwegian Eliteserien
1 · Brann 50%X 24%27% Lillestrøm · 2
50%
24%
27%
Analysis: Brann – Lillestrøm
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
With Brann's 50% win probability against Lillestrøm's 27%, the model leans toward a home victory despite an intriguing edge in xPoints favoring the visitors. Brann's possession control style should match interestingly against Lillestrøm's high press, but the rain might dampen both teams' attacking ambitions, already factored into the model's numbers.
Head-to-head stats suggest Brann holds the upper hand, having won both encounters since 2021. But with only two matches in this sample, it weighs less in our assessment compared to the season's xG data. Brann's expected goals per match stand at 1.8, slightly ahead of Lillestrøm's 1.6, though the visitors concede less on average. It's a delicate balance, with the hosts having a historical 62% home win rate, yet this match feels tighter.
The most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 2-1 indicate a close contest. While the probabilities show a 58% chance for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, the weather might tip this toward fewer goals. The xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball slightly favors Brann, implying they might create more immediate threats.
The standout angle here is the value in the under 2.5 goals market. Despite the 58% probability for over 2.5, betting odds suggest otherwise, offering an opportunity for savvy punters. With Nordicbet, Betsson, and Betsafe offering odds of 2.68, 2.65, and 2.62 respectively on under 2.5, they're pricing the under at a significant edge compared to the model's 42% likelihood.
In a match where neither side seems poised to dominate, under 2.5 goals emerges as a sharp play, thanks to the generous odds provided by these bookmakers.
BrannForm WLWWD
League ranking xG #3xGA #9xT #2xP/match #12Points #5
Key players
- Noah HolmFxG 0.47 · xT 0.05
- Joachim SoltvedtLWBxG 0.21 · xT 0.37
- Denzel De RoeveRBxG 0.10 · xT 0.30
LillestrømForm LLLDL
League ranking xG #7xGA #3xT #11xP/match #3Points #6
Key players
- Ruben GabrielsenCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.10
- Lars RangerRWBxG 0.17 · xT 0.13
- Salieu DrammehRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.16
Final score
1 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Brann 50% · Draw 24% · Lillestrøm 27%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - BrannBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,27fair 6,03-29 %
MissMatchresultat - LillestrømBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,67fair 12,93-33 %
MissMatch prediction: Brann – Lillestrøm
Predicted score matrix
Lillestrøm →
Brann →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.2%
0–15.6%
0–23.7%
0–31.5%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–08.4%
1–111.0%
1–26.6%
1–32.7%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.8%
2–19.6%
2–25.9%
2–32.4%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–04.7%
3–15.8%
3–23.5%
3–31.5%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–03.2%
4+–13.9%
4+–22.4%
4+–31.0%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,80–1,23
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
223%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,542%
@2.68EV+9%
Over 2,558%
@1.49
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Brann to win50%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Noah Emmanuel Jean Holm to score33%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Noah Emmanuel Jean Holm to score33%
- Ulrik Yttergård Jenssen to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Lillestrøm27% probability@4.37PinnacleEV+17%reference odds
- Under 2.542% probability@2.68NordicbetEV+12%reference odds
- Under 2.542% probability@2.65BetssonEV+11%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Brann | X | 2 · Lillestrøm |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.85 | 3.85 | EV+ 6% 3.95 |
| Betsson | 1.85 | 3.90 | EV+ 7% 4.00 |
| Nordicbet | 1.85 | 3.90 | EV+ 7% 4.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.75 | EV+ 2% 4.30 | EV+ 17% 4.37 |
Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:32
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Brann win since 31 August — the odds have shortened from 1.84 to 1.75 (−5%).
1-5 %
56 %51 %
1.84 → 1.75
X+6 %
25 %20 %
4.07 → 4.30
2+15 %
26 %21 %
3.81 → 4.37
Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesBrann 2Draw 0Lillestrøm 0
Goals: 4–1 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.
Key facts
- Brann win 62% of their home matches all-time (39 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Brann
Lillestrøm
Brann (36–27)
Lillestrøm (24–25)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Brann
Lillestrøm
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Brann
Lillestrøm
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Brann | Lillestrøm |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 26 | 26 |
| xPoints | 22.5 | 27.6 |
| xG per match | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.3 | 0.26 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| Playing style | Brann | Lillestrøm |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.65 | 0.52 |
| xT per match | 1.6 | 0.96 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 21 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 432 | 424 |
| Passes against per match | 284 | 374 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.1 | 26 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Brann | Lillestrøm |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 6.5 | 5.4 |
| Corners against per match | 5.2 | 5.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.45 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| Other | Brann | Lillestrøm |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Mathias Dyngeland (Brann) | Pontus Jacob Ragne Dahlberg (Lillestrøm) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 35 | 68 |
| Save % | 67% | 74% |
| xG prevented | 40% | 56% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Brann vs Lillestrøm according to our model?
The model gives Brann a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Brann 50%, draw 24%, Lillestrøm 27%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.