01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Bodø/Glimt to win79%
- Over 1.5 goals88%
Norwegian Eliteserien14°4,8 mm23 km/h
Läs på svenska
Bodø/GlimtPossession & high press4–2
RosenborgCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Bodø/Glimt (79%)
Bodø/Glimt – Rosenborg · Norwegian Eliteserien
1 · Bodø/Glimt 79%X 14%8% Rosenborg · 2
79%
14%
Analysis: Bodø/Glimt – Rosenborg
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT: Bodø/Glimt's staggering 79% chance of victory against Rosenborg sets the stage for what appears to be a one-sided encounter. Their model-driven edge is unmistakable, accentuated further by their relentless form of six consecutive wins. The visitors, with only an 8% chance to triumph, are up against a team that not only dominates in head-to-head meetings but does so with a style that suffocates opponents through possession and high pressing. The small sample of five meetings since 2021, showing 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss for Glimt, carries less weight than their recent performances and underlying metrics.
Expected goals further emphasize the disparity: 2.71 for the hosts compared to just 0.90 for Rosenborg. Despite a history rich in goals, averaging 3.8 per clash, the expected rain may temper scoring but remains within the model's calculations. The 70% likelihood of over 2.5 goals suggests a contest where Glimt's firepower could shine, but Rosenborg might find opportunities through counter-attacks and crosses.
For those seeking value, the home victory at odds of 1.37 with Betsson and Nordicbet, or 1.36 with Betsafe, offers an appealing proposition. With the model rating a Bodø/Glimt win at 79%, bettors can find an 8% edge with Betsson and Nordicbet, or a 7% edge with Betsafe—worth considering in a matchup skewed heavily in favor of the hosts.
Bodø/GlimtForm WWWWW
League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Andreas HelmersenFxG 0.96 · xT 0.04
- Jens Petter HaugeLWxG 0.16 · xT 0.42
- Fredrik SjovoldRBxG 0.09 · xT 0.41
RosenborgForm WWLWW
League ranking xG #6xGA #5xT #7xP/match #7Points #7
Key players
- Amin ChiakhaFxG 0.50 · xT 0.06
- Emil Konradsen CeideLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.18
- Iver FossumLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.14
Final score
4 – 2
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Bodø/Glimt 79% · Draw 14% · Rosenborg 8%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Rosenborg BKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 15,10fair 33,85-55 %
MissMatch prediction: Bodø/Glimt – Rosenborg
Predicted score matrix
Rosenborg →
Bodø/Glimt →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–02.9%
0–12.3%
0–21.1%
0–30.3%
0–4+0.1%
1
1–07.2%
1–16.8%
1–23.0%
1–30.9%
1–4+0.2%
2
2–010.0%
2–18.9%
2–24.0%
2–31.2%
2–4+0.3%
3
3–09.0%
3–18.1%
3–23.6%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–011.7%
4+–110.5%
4+–24.7%
4+–31.4%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-010%
- 2.3-09%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.3-18%
- 5.1-07%
Expected goals
2,71–0,90
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,60
19%
218%
321%
419%
5+29%
Under 2,530%
@3.40EV+3%
Over 2,570%
@1.36
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Bodø/Glimt to win79%
- Over 2.5 goals70%
- Kasper Waarts Thenza Høgh to score35%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals70%
- Kasper Waarts Thenza Høgh to score35%
- Tomáš Nemčík to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Bodø/Glimt79% probability@1.37BetssonEV+8%reference odds
- 1 · Bodø/Glimt79% probability@1.37NordicbetEV+8%reference odds
- 1 · Bodø/Glimt79% probability@1.37PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Bodø/Glimt | X | 2 · Rosenborg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | EV+ 2% 1.30 | 5.50 | 7.00 |
| Betsafe | EV+ 7% 1.36 | 5.20 | 7.70 |
| Betsson | EV+ 8% 1.37 | 5.25 | 7.80 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 8% 1.37 | 5.25 | 7.80 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 8% 1.37 | 5.91 | 7.40 |
Odds updated 30 Aug, 05:14
Odds movement
1+1 %
73 %68 %
1.36 → 1.37
X+4 %
19 %14 %
5.66 → 5.91
2+5 %
16 %11 %
7.04 → 7.40
Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 21/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesBodø/Glimt 2Draw 2Rosenborg 1
Goals: 12–7 (⌀ 3,8)
Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.
Key facts
- FK Bodo/Glimt dominate this fixture historically: 2 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.8 goals per meeting on average.
- FK Bodo/Glimt come into this round on 6 straight wins.
- FK Bodo/Glimt have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.
- FK Bodo/Glimt win 76% of their home matches all-time (38 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Bodø/Glimt
Rosenborg
Bodø/Glimt (43–12)
Rosenborg (25–22)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Bodø/Glimt
Rosenborg
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Bodø/Glimt
Rosenborg
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Bodø/Glimt | Rosenborg |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41 | 24 |
| xPoints | 30.2 | 25.7 |
| xG per match | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.39 | 0.17 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| Playing style | Bodø/Glimt | Rosenborg |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.84 | 0.54 |
| xT per match | 2 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.67 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 31 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 29 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 8 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.84 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.8 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 598 | 387 |
| Passes against per match | 294 | 349 |
| Switches of play per match | 40.3 | 20.7 |
| Long balls per match | 43 | 27 |
| Set pieces | Bodø/Glimt | Rosenborg |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 7.7 | 6.5 |
| Corners against per match | 2.5 | 5.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.61 | 0.39 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| Other | Bodø/Glimt | Rosenborg |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Nikita Haikin (Bodø/Glimt) | Leopold Wahlstedt (Rosenborg) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 37 | 53 |
| Save % | 77% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 53% | 50% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Bodø/Glimt vs Rosenborg according to our model?
The model gives Bodø/Glimt a 79% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bodø/Glimt 79%, draw 14%, Rosenborg 8%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 70% and under at 30%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.