01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Bodø/Glimt to win77%
- Over 1.5 goals88%
Norwegian Eliteserien12°4,6 mm11 km/h
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FredrikstadBalanced & physical1–2
Bodø/GlimtPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Bodø/Glimt (77%)
Fredrikstad – Bodø/Glimt · Norwegian Eliteserien
1 · Fredrikstad 9%X 14%77% Bodø/Glimt · 2
14%
77%
Analysis: Fredrikstad – Bodø/Glimt
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
The model gives Bodø/Glimt a commanding 77% chance to win, a figure backed by their relentless form and their 7-game winning streak. They have consistently dominated the head-to-head with Fredrikstad, winning four out of the last five meetings. This small sample is less significant than the current form and expected goals, where the visitors average 2.7 xG per match compared to the hosts' 1.3.
Fredrikstad are on a strong 4-game winning streak themselves, but their 0.87 expected goals against Bodø/Glimt's 2.73 suggests they face a significant uphill battle. Their balanced and physical style might struggle against the visitors' high press and possession-based approach. The rain, predicted at 4.6 mm, could suppress scoring but is already factored into the model's strong lean towards over 2.5 goals (70%).
Betsson and Nordicbet offer Bodø/Glimt at 1.3 odds, aligning perfectly with the model's 77% win probability for the visitors, albeit with no edge. The most likely scoreline is 0-2 at 10%, closely followed by 0-3 and 1-2 at 9%. Expect Bodø/Glimt to continue their scoring run, while Fredrikstad's task seems daunting against the in-form visitors.
FredrikstadForm LWWWW
League ranking xG #12xGA #16xT #14xP/match #17Points #7
Key players
- Daniel EidRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.23
- Benjamin FaraasFxG 0.40 · xT 0.02
- Henrik SkogvoldFxG 0.23 · xT 0.03
Bodø/GlimtForm WWWWW
League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Andreas HelmersenFxG 0.99 · xT 0.06
- Jens Petter HaugeLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.41
- Fredrik SjovoldRBxG 0.10 · xT 0.41
Final score
1 – 2
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Fredrikstad 9% · Draw 14% · Bodø/Glimt 77%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Bodø/GlimtBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 3,16fair 3,55-11 %
MissMatchresultat - FredrikstadBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 22,24fair 36,58-39 %
MissMatch prediction: Fredrikstad – Bodø/Glimt
Predicted score matrix
Bodø/Glimt →
Fredrikstad →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–02.9%
0–17.3%
0–210.2%
0–39.2%
0–4+12.2%
1
1–02.2%
1–16.7%
1–28.9%
1–38.1%
1–4+10.6%
2
2–01.0%
2–12.8%
2–23.9%
2–33.5%
2–4+4.6%
3
3–00.3%
3–10.8%
3–21.1%
3–31.0%
3–4+1.3%
4+
4+–00.1%
4+–10.2%
4+–20.3%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.0-210%
- 2.0-39%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.1-38%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
0,87–2,73
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,60
19%
218%
321%
419%
5+29%
Under 2,530%
@3.00
Over 2,570%
@1.40
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Bodø/Glimt to win77%
- Over 2.5 goals70%
- Ole Didrik Blomberg to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals70%
- Ole Didrik Blomberg to score26%
- Samuel Ruben Leach Holm to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Bodø/Glimt77% probability@1.33PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
- 2 · Bodø/Glimt77% probability@1.32BetssonEV+2%reference odds
- 2 · Bodø/Glimt77% probability@1.32NordicbetEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Fredrikstad | X | 2 · Bodø/Glimt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 9.60 | 5.20 | EV+ 1% 1.31 |
| Betsson | 9.80 | 5.30 | EV+ 2% 1.32 |
| Nordicbet | 9.80 | 5.30 | EV+ 2% 1.32 |
| Pinnacle | 7.91 | 5.88 | EV+ 3% 1.33 |
Odds updated 4 Sept, 11:37
Odds movement
1+1 %
14 %9 %
7.83 → 7.91
X+1 %
18 %13 %
5.84 → 5.88
2+1 %
76 %71 %
1.32 → 1.33
Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesFredrikstad 0Draw 1Bodø/Glimt 4
Goals: 2–11 (⌀ 2,6)
Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.
Key facts
- FK Bodo/Glimt dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 0 in 5 meetings.
- Fredrikstad come into this round on 4 straight wins.
- FK Bodo/Glimt come into this round on 7 straight wins.
- FK Bodo/Glimt have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Fredrikstad
Bodø/Glimt
Fredrikstad (22–28)
Bodø/Glimt (47–14)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Fredrikstad
Bodø/Glimt
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Fredrikstad
Bodø/Glimt
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Fredrikstad | Bodø/Glimt |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 26 | 44 |
| xPoints | 19.9 | 32.5 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 2.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.16 | 0.41 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.3 | 0.18 |
| Playing style | Fredrikstad | Bodø/Glimt |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| Field tilt | 0.42 | 0.82 |
| xT per match | 0.9 | 2.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.67 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 31 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 29 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.84 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.79 |
| Passes per match | 374 | 595 |
| Passes against per match | 427 | 303 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.3 | 40.9 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 44 |
| Set pieces | Fredrikstad | Bodø/Glimt |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 4 | 8 |
| Corners against per match | 6.1 | 2.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.59 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.65 |
| Other | Fredrikstad | Bodø/Glimt |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Martin Borsheim (Fredrikstad) | Nikita Haikin (Bodø/Glimt) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 64 | 38 |
| Save % | 70% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 38% | 52% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Fredrikstad vs Bodø/Glimt according to our model?
The model gives Bodø/Glimt a 77% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fredrikstad 9%, draw 14%, Bodø/Glimt 77%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 70% and under at 30%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.