Hamarkameratene vs Kristiansund: Prediction & Odds (30 Aug 2026)

Norwegian Eliteserien30 August 202616°1,3 mm16 km/h

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HamarkamerateneLow block & direct

2–2

KristiansundLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Hamarkameratene (46%)Best value by the model: 2 · Kristiansund @ 4.55 (+24 %)

1 · Hamarkameratene 46%X 26%27% Kristiansund · 2

46%

26%

27%

Analysis: Hamarkameratene – Kristiansund

Oscar Nilsson · 27 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Hamarkameratene holds the upper hand against Kristiansund, riding a streak of domination in their head-to-heads since 2021. The hosts have collected three wins and two draws in their last five encounters, a small sample but still noteworthy for setting a psychological advantage. Combine this with a model probability giving Hamarkameratene a 46% chance of victory, and the scene is set for a home win as the most probable outcome.

Digging into the expected goals, Hamarkameratene leads with 1.66 compared to Kristiansund's 1.18, and both sides seem evenly matched in their defensively lax, direct playing styles. Thus, it's likely we'll see opportunities on both ends. The over 2.5 goals market sits at 54%, with both teams to score at 57%, numbers that suggest a slight lean towards a high-scoring affair. Yet, the expected rain might just dampen the attacking flair a bit, although it's already calculated into the model.

Points and xPoints further tilt the scales in Hamarkameratene's favor, as they lead Kristiansund with 22 points to 15, and 21.5 xPoints to 19.6. Despite not being a chasm, these numbers consistently point to a slight edge for the home side, indicating that Kristiansund will face an uphill battle. Their xG and xGA per match figures reveal similarly close margins, yet Hamarkameratene still holds the slight statistical advantage.

The likelihood of a 1-1 or 2-1 scoreline looms, but the model's lean toward Hamarkameratene at 46% highlights the best betting angle. Currently, Unibet offers odds of 2.20 for a Hamarkameratene win, presenting potential value for those seeking a calculated risk in a match where the numbers align more snugly with the hosts' ambitions.

Hamarkameratene

Form LLWDL

League ranking xG #12xGA #11xT #15xP/match #11Points #9

Key players

Loris MettlerFxG 0.16 · xT 0.20
Henrik UdahlFxG 0.45 · xT 0.02
Mame Alassane NiangFxG 0.31 · xT -0.04

Kristiansund

Form DLLWL

League ranking xG #15xGA #14xT #16xP/match #15Points #14

Key players

Leander AlvheimFxG 0.36 · xT 0.00
Jesper IsaksenLWBxG 0.09 · xT 0.07
Sander Hestetun KilenLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.08

Final score

2 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Hamarkameratene 46% · Draw 26% · Kristiansund 27%

Match prediction: Hamarkameratene – Kristiansund

Predicted score matrix

Kristiansund →

Hamarkameratene →

0–06.2%

0–16.6%

0–24.1%

0–31.6%

0–4+0.6%

1–09.3%

1–111.8%

1–26.8%

1–32.7%

1–4+1.0%

2–08.0%

2–19.5%

2–25.6%

2–32.2%

2–4+0.8%

3–04.4%

3–15.3%

3–23.1%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.5%

4+–02.7%

4+–13.2%

4+–21.9%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-09%
4.2-08%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,66–1,18

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

@2.08

Over 2,554%

@1.73

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Hamarkameratene to win46%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Hamarkameratene to win46%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Aksel Baran Potur to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Aksel Baran Potur to score23%
Wilfred George Igor to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Kristiansund27% probability@4.55PinnacleEV+24%reference odds
2 · Kristiansund27% probability@3.70Bet365EV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Hamarkameratene	X	2 · Kristiansund
Bet365	1.90	3.50	EV+ 1% 3.70
Pinnacle	1.83	3.73	EV+ 24% 4.55

Odds updated 30 Aug, 05:14

Odds movement

1-4 %

54 %49 %

1.91 → 1.83

X+8 %

29 %24 %

3.46 → 3.73

2+8 %

25 %20 %

4.20 → 4.55

Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 21/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Hamarkameratene 3Draw 2Kristiansund 0

Goals: 8–4 (⌀ 2,4)

Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.

Key facts

Hamarkameratene dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 0 in 5 meetings.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Hamarkameratene

Kristiansund

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Hamarkameratene (24–30)

Kristiansund (15–27)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Hamarkameratene

Kristiansund

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Hamarkameratene

Kristiansund

The teams in numbers

Performance	Hamarkameratene	Kristiansund
Points	22	15
xPoints	21.5	19.6
xG per match	1.3	1.1
xGA per match	1.7	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.16
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.34	0.23

Playing style	Hamarkameratene	Kristiansund
Build-up efficiency	0.38	0.32
Field tilt	0.34	0.39
xT per match	0.85	0.71
xTA per match	1.3	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	22	24
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.2
Entries into the box per match	12	10
Entries into the box against	18	16
Pass completion %	0.77	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.73
Passes per match	369	324
Passes against per match	434	450
Switches of play per match	26.3	25.2
Long balls per match	34	35

Set pieces	Hamarkameratene	Kristiansund
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.07
Corners per match	4	4.3
Corners against per match	5.6	6.6
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.45
First touch, defensive corners %	0.61	0.71

Other	Hamarkameratene	Kristiansund
Throw-in control	0.68	0.66

The goalkeepers	Marcus Sandberg (Hamarkameratene)	Adrian Saether (Kristiansund)
Saves	61	42
Save %	69%	68%
xG prevented	48%	54%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Hamarkameratene

Fixtures, form & tips

Kristiansund

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Hamarkameratene vs Kristiansund according to our model?

The model gives Hamarkameratene a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hamarkameratene 46%, draw 26%, Kristiansund 27%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.