01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Tromsø or draw (X2)70%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
Norwegian Eliteserien13°14,4 mm34 km/h
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KristiansundLow block & direct2–0
TromsøPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Tromsø (44%)Best value by the model: 1 · Kristiansund @ 4.30 (+44 %)
Kristiansund – Tromsø · Norwegian Eliteserien
1 · Kristiansund 33%X 22%44% Tromsø · 2
33%
22%
44%
Analysis: Kristiansund – Tromsø
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT: Kristiansund and Tromsø are set to clash, with current form and expected goals favoring the visitors. Tromsø have been more consistent, securing 34 points compared to Kristiansund's 16. Tromsø's possession-based style and effective high press contrast sharply with Kristiansund's direct play and fragile defense, suggesting an intriguing tactical battle.
The expected goals further illuminate the visitors' edge. Tromsø averages 1.7 xG per match, significantly higher than the hosts' 1.1. On the defensive end, Tromsø also outperforms Kristiansund, with an xGA of 1.4 compared to 1.8. This disparity indicates that Tromsø is not only creating more chances but also better at stifling their opponents' opportunities. The model's probabilities of 44% in favor of Tromsø reflect this, with the most likely scoreline being a narrow 1-1 draw at 13%, but 0-1 to Tromsø sits close behind at 11%.
Weather conditions might also play a role, with rain expected. This could suppress scoring, but this is already accounted for in the model's numbers. The over 2.5 goals probability sits at 46%, hinting at a low-scoring affair. Coupled with a 51% chance of both teams finding the net, a cautious approach leans towards an under 2.5 outcome.
Despite Kristiansund's struggles, the betting market presents value in backing them at odds of 4.75 with Betsson and Nordicbet, and slightly lower at 4.7 with Betsafe, given the model rates the home win probability at 33%. While Tromsø remains the more likely victor, the potential return on Kristiansund could be attractive for those willing to take the risk against the grain.
KristiansundForm LLWLD
League ranking xG #16xGA #15xT #17xP/match #16Points #14
Key players
- Leander AlvheimFxG 0.37 · xT 0.00
- Jesper IsaksenLWBxG 0.09 · xT 0.06
- Sander Hestetun KilenLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.08
TromsøForm LD
League ranking xG #5xGA #4xT #5xP/match #5Points #3
Key players
- Daniel BrautFxG 0.54 · xT -0.02
- Abubacarr Sedi KintehCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.21
- Heine Asen LarsenFxG 0.52 · xT 0.04
Final score
2 – 0
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Kristiansund 33% · Draw 22% · Tromsø 44%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - KristiansundBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 12,45fair 15,90-22 %
MissMatchresultat - TromsøBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,63fair 10,32-45 %
MissMatch prediction: Kristiansund – Tromsø
Predicted score matrix
Tromsø →
Kristiansund →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.6%
0–111.0%
0–27.9%
0–33.7%
0–4+1.7%
1
1–08.8%
1–113.0%
1–28.8%
1–34.1%
1–4+1.9%
2
2–05.1%
2–17.0%
2–24.9%
2–32.3%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–01.9%
3–12.6%
3–21.8%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–00.7%
4+–10.9%
4+–20.6%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-111%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.1-09%
- 5.0-09%
Expected goals
1,11–1,39
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@2.11EV+13%
Over 2,546%
@1.77
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Tromsø or draw (X2)70%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Heine Åsen Larsen to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Leander Næss Alvheim to score31%
- David Mikael Edvardsson to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Kristiansund33% probability@4.30BetssonEV+44%reference odds
- 1 · Kristiansund33% probability@4.30NordicbetEV+44%reference odds
- 1 · Kristiansund33% probability@4.26PinnacleEV+42%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Kristiansund | X | 2 · Tromsø |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 42% 4.25 | 3.65 | 1.85 |
| Betsson | EV+ 44% 4.30 | 3.65 | 1.85 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 44% 4.30 | 3.65 | 1.85 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 42% 4.26 | 3.87 | 1.85 |
Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Kristiansund win since 31 August — the odds have shortened from 4.77 to 4.26 (−11%).
1-11 %
24 %19 %
4.77 → 4.26
X-5 %
27 %22 %
4.07 → 3.87
2+10 %
57 %52 %
1.68 → 1.85
Over 2,5+5 %
58 %53 %
1.69 → 1.77
Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Kristiansund
Tromsø
Kristiansund (17–29)
Tromsø (32–17)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Kristiansund
Tromsø
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Kristiansund
Tromsø
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Kristiansund | Tromsø |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 16 | 34 |
| xPoints | 21.1 | 24.5 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.17 | 0.37 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| Playing style | Kristiansund | Tromsø |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.39 | 0.49 |
| xT per match | 0.73 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.2 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 322 | 427 |
| Passes against per match | 447 | 432 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.3 | 23.3 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 42 |
| Set pieces | Kristiansund | Tromsø |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 4.3 | 5.6 |
| Corners against per match | 6.7 | 4.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.48 | 0.36 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.71 | 0.55 |
| Other | Kristiansund | Tromsø |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Adrian Saether (Kristiansund) | Jakob Haugaard (Tromsø) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 42 | 3 |
| Save % | 68% | 100% |
| xG prevented | 54% | 100% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Kristiansund vs Tromsø according to our model?
The model gives Tromsø a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kristiansund 33%, draw 22%, Tromsø 44%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.