01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Lillestrøm to win58%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Norwegian Eliteserien16°1,4 mm11 km/h
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LillestrømPossession & high press1–4
FredrikstadBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Lillestrøm (58%)Best value by the model: 2 · Fredrikstad @ 5.31 (+9 %)
Lillestrøm – Fredrikstad · Norwegian Eliteserien
1 · Lillestrøm 58%X 22%21% Fredrikstad · 2
58%
22%
21%
Analysis: Lillestrøm – Fredrikstad
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Fredrikstad's recent three-game winning streak adds intrigue to their clash against Lillestrøm, though numbers paint a different picture. The hosts hold a slight edge with a model probability of 58% favoring them. Despite the small head-to-head sample where Lillestrøm has lost twice to Fredrikstad, the hosts display better season form. Their expected goals of 1.92 surpass the visitors' 1.15, indicating control through possession and high pressing.
Lillestrøm's superior xG and xGA metrics further highlight their advantage, backed by a 26-point tally compared to Fredrikstad's 23. The weather, with expected rain, may dampen the goal-scoring potential, aligning with the model's 41% probability for under 2.5 goals. Although the over 2.5 goals market stands at 59%, and both teams to score at 58%, this could be a cautious affair.
For value hunters, the under 2.5 goals offers a potential edge, notably at odds of 2.52 with Nordicbet, despite the model's prediction of a high-scoring outcome. Betting on fewer goals could pay off, with the same under at odds of 2.48 with Betsafe providing a smaller edge. Expect a tight 1-1 or perhaps a 1-0 victory for Lillestrøm, as dry numbers often favor the mundane over the thrilling.
LillestrømForm WLLLD
League ranking xG #7xGA #2xT #10xP/match #3Points #5
Key players
- Ruben GabrielsenCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.10
- Lars RangerRWBxG 0.17 · xT 0.13
- Salieu DrammehRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.16
FredrikstadForm LLWWW
League ranking xG #14xGA #15xT #13xP/match #16Points #8
Key players
- Henrik SkogvoldFxG 0.22 · xT 0.02
- Rocco SheinCAMxG 0.12 · xT 0.09
- Daniel EidRBxG 0.10 · xT 0.23
Final score
1 – 4
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Lillestrøm 58% · Draw 22% · Fredrikstad 21%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - FredrikstadBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 14,53fair 15,34-5 %
HitMatchresultat - LillestrømBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,88fair 5,47-11 %
MissMatch prediction: Lillestrøm – Fredrikstad
Predicted score matrix
Fredrikstad →
Lillestrøm →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.0%
0–15.1%
0–23.1%
0–31.2%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–08.7%
1–110.6%
1–25.9%
1–32.2%
1–4+0.8%
2
2–08.6%
2–19.8%
2–25.6%
2–32.2%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–05.5%
3–16.3%
3–23.6%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–04.1%
4+–14.7%
4+–22.7%
4+–31.0%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.3-16%
Expected goals
1,92–1,15
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,541%
@2.52EV+1%
Over 2,559%
@1.69
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Lillestrøm to win58%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Gustav Kjølstad Nyheim to score35%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Gustav Kjølstad Nyheim to score35%
- Ulrik Tillung Fredriksen to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Fredrikstad21% probability@5.31PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
- Under 2.541% probability@2.52NordicbetEV+3%reference odds
- Under 3.563% probability@1.62NordicbetEV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Lillestrøm | X | 2 · Fredrikstad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.61 | 4.10 | 4.50 |
| Betsafe | 1.68 | 4.05 | 4.70 |
| Betsson | 1.72 | 3.90 | 4.75 |
| Nordicbet | 1.68 | 4.10 | 4.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.70 | 3.78 | EV+ 9% 5.31 |
Odds updated 30 Aug, 05:14
Odds movement
1+1 %
58 %53 %
1.68 → 1.70
X+1 %
28 %23 %
3.73 → 3.78
2+1 %
21 %16 %
5.25 → 5.31
Over 2,50 %
59 %54 %
1.69 → 1.69
Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 21/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
3 matchesLillestrøm 1Draw 0Fredrikstad 2
Goals: 3–5 (⌀ 2,7)
Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.
Key facts
- Fredrikstad come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Lillestrøm
Fredrikstad
Lillestrøm (23–21)
Fredrikstad (18–27)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Lillestrøm
Fredrikstad
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Lillestrøm
Fredrikstad
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Lillestrøm | Fredrikstad |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 26 | 23 |
| xPoints | 26.9 | 17.8 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.27 | 0.1 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| Playing style | Lillestrøm | Fredrikstad |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| Field tilt | 0.52 | 0.42 |
| xT per match | 0.97 | 0.89 |
| xTA per match | 0.99 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 423 | 375 |
| Passes against per match | 375 | 426 |
| Switches of play per match | 26.1 | 25.6 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 37 |
| Set pieces | Lillestrøm | Fredrikstad |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| Corners per match | 5.2 | 4.1 |
| Corners against per match | 5.3 | 5.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.69 | 0.5 |
| Other | Lillestrøm | Fredrikstad |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.77 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Pontus Jacob Ragne Dahlberg (Lillestrøm) | Martin Borsheim (Fredrikstad) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 63 | 59 |
| Save % | 76% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 59% | 37% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Lillestrøm vs Fredrikstad according to our model?
The model gives Lillestrøm a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lillestrøm 58%, draw 22%, Fredrikstad 21%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.