01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Molde to win63%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
Norwegian Eliteserien13°10,8 mm21 km/h
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MoldePossession control2–0
KFUMBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Molde (63%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 7.60 (+50 %)
Molde – KFUM · Norwegian Eliteserien
1 · Molde 63%X 22%15% KFUM · 2
63%
22%
15%
Analysis: Molde – KFUM
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Molde's firm grip on possession control often defines their matches, but in the clash against KFUM, there's an intriguing contrast in styles. The home team edges the visitors in expected goals (xG) and expected points (xPoints), suggesting an underlying strength that the league table already hints at. Yet, Molde's historical dominance at home—winning 56% of their matches—doesn't extend to their head-to-head record against KFUM. The sample is small, with only five meetings since 2021, yet the visitors have managed to assert themselves with two wins to Molde's one.
The models paint a picture of an encounter where Molde should have the upper hand. A 63% win probability and expected goals tilted in their favor (2.03 to 0.97) suggest the hosts are likely to capitalize on their attacking prowess. However, KFUM's physicality and balanced approach shouldn't be underestimated, especially given the historical trend of high-scoring affairs—an average of 3.6 goals per meeting in their past five encounters.
Both teams to score (54% probability) and the over 2.5 goals lean (58%) highlight the likelihood of a match that doesn't shy away from action, rain and all. The weather, with expected rain of 2.4 mm, typically dampens scoring, but this is already factored into the model, which still anticipates goals.
Despite the model's lean towards Molde and the narrow margins in expected goals, the sharpest angle lies elsewhere. With odds as high as 9.4 on KFUM winning at Betsson and Nordicbet, and 9.2 at Betsafe, there's clear value in betting on the underdogs. The model rates the visitors' chances at 15%, offering a substantial edge of over 40% at those odds. While Molde remains favorites, the price on KFUM is too tempting to ignore.
MoldeForm WDLWD
League ranking xG #4xGA #5xT #4xP/match #6Points #4
Key players
- Fredrik GulbrandsenFxG 0.32 · xT 0.00
- Eirik HestadRWxG 0.39 · xT 0.09
- Trent Toure Koné-DohertyFxG 0.69 · xT 0.17
KFUMForm LWWDL
League ranking xG #17xGA #11xT #12xP/match #15Points #13
Key players
- Bilal NjieFxG 0.36 · xT 0.07
- Teodor Berg HaltvikFxG 0.39 · xT 0.06
- Magnus Wolff EikremFxG 0.14 · xT 0.31
Final score
2 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Molde 63% · Draw 22% · KFUM 15%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - KFUM OsloBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 18,69fair 23,21-19 %
MissMatchresultat - MoldeBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 2,87fair 5,29-46 %
MissMatch prediction: Molde – KFUM
Predicted score matrix
KFUM →
Molde →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.3%
0–14.6%
0–22.3%
0–30.8%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–09.9%
1–110.1%
1–24.7%
1–31.5%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–010.3%
2–110.0%
2–24.8%
2–31.6%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–07.0%
3–16.7%
3–23.3%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–05.6%
4+–15.4%
4+–22.6%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-010%
- 2.1-110%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.1-010%
- 5.3-07%
Expected goals
2,03–0,97
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,542%
@3.40EV+40%
Over 2,558%
@1.33
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Molde to win63%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Jacob Steen Vestergaard Christensen to score32%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Jacob Steen Vestergaard Christensen to score32%
- Robin Gravli Rasch to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 1.520% probability@7.60NordicbetEV+50%reference odds
- Under 1.520% probability@7.50BetssonEV+48%reference odds
- Under 2.542% probability@3.40NordicbetEV+44%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Molde | X | 2 · KFUM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.32 | EV+ 13% 5.25 | EV+ 40% 9.20 |
| Betsson | 1.33 | EV+ 14% 5.30 | EV+ 43% 9.40 |
| Nordicbet | 1.33 | EV+ 14% 5.30 | EV+ 43% 9.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.31 | EV+ 31% 6.08 | EV+ 24% 8.11 |
Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36
Odds movement
1-3 %
74 %69 %
1.36 → 1.31
X+13 %
19 %14 %
5.37 → 6.08
2+7 %
15 %10 %
7.60 → 8.11
Pinnacle · 16 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesMolde 1Draw 2KFUM 2
Goals: 9–9 (⌀ 3,6)
Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.
Key facts
- KFUM dominate this fixture historically: 2 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.6 goals per meeting on average.
- Molde win 56% of their home matches all-time (39 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Molde
KFUM
Molde (36–29)
KFUM (20–31)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Molde
KFUM
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Molde
KFUM
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Molde | KFUM |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 28 | 19 |
| xPoints | 26.6 | 21.1 |
| xG per match | 1.8 | 1 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| Playing style | Molde | KFUM |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| Field tilt | 0.59 | 0.42 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 0.96 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 17 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.81 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 483 | 336 |
| Passes against per match | 326 | 427 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.9 | 18.6 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 27 |
| Set pieces | Molde | KFUM |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.1 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 5.3 | 4.2 |
| Corners against per match | 4.3 | 5 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.54 | 0.56 |
| Other | Molde | KFUM |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Albert Posiadała (Molde) | Havar Jenssen (KFUM) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 37 | 27 |
| Save % | 65% | 60% |
| xG prevented | 44% | 33% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Molde vs KFUM according to our model?
The model gives Molde a 63% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Molde 63%, draw 22%, KFUM 15%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.