01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Rosenborg to win59%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
Norwegian Eliteserien13°17 km/h
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RosenborgCounter-attacks & crosses4–0
HamarkamerateneLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Rosenborg (59%)Best value by the model: 2 · Hamarkameratene @ 9.03 (+66 %)
Rosenborg – Hamarkameratene · Norwegian Eliteserien
1 · Rosenborg 59%X 23%18% Hamarkameratene · 2
59%
23%
18%
Analysis: Rosenborg – Hamarkameratene
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT: Rosenborg's knack for scoring in the last eight league games sets the stage for a fascinating encounter against a Hamarkameratene side known for sturdy defensive tactics and direct play. With 59% win probability, the hosts are favored to extend their solid home form where they historically win 56% of matches. The visitors, with a mere 18% chance of victory, face a formidable challenge, especially given Rosenborg's attacking momentum.
While the head-to-head record since 2021 shows Rosenborg with an upper hand, with three wins in four matches, the small sample size means recent form and expected goals carry more weight. Rosenborg's xG of 1.6 per match against Hamarkameratene's 1.3 suggests a slight offensive edge, while defensively, the hosts' xGA of 1.5 offers a tighter ship compared to the visitors' 1.7. These figures hint at a game where Rosenborg is poised to control the narrative, likely through counter-attacks and exploiting crosses.
Goals seem likely, with the model suggesting a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% probability of both teams finding the net. The most probable scorelines are 2-1 and 1-1, each at 10%, pointing to a narrow victory or a draw. However, Rosenborg’s ability to find net consistently positions them as the team to back, with a 2-1 scoreline appearing most plausible.
Given the statistical lean towards goals and Rosenborg's attacking form, backing over 2.5 goals aligns well with the numbers. It's a dry play, grounded in a methodical analysis of current trends and expected match dynamics.
RosenborgForm WLWWL
League ranking xG #6xGA #8xT #8xP/match #7Points #8
Key players
- Emil Konradsen CeideLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.19
- Amin ChiakhaFxG 0.48 · xT 0.05
- Iver FossumLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.14
HamarkamerateneForm LWDLD
League ranking xG #13xGA #12xT #16xP/match #10Points #9
Key players
- Loris MettlerFxG 0.16 · xT 0.20
- Markus JohnsgardFxG 0.37 · xT 0.02
- Mame Alassane NiangFxG 0.31 · xT -0.04
Final score
4 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Rosenborg 59% · Draw 23% · Hamarkameratene 18%
Match prediction: Rosenborg – Hamarkameratene
Predicted score matrix
Hamarkameratene →
Rosenborg →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.4%
0–14.2%
0–22.5%
0–30.9%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–08.4%
1–19.7%
1–25.1%
1–31.9%
1–4+0.6%
2
2–09.1%
2–19.9%
2–25.4%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–06.3%
3–16.9%
3–23.8%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–05.4%
4+–15.9%
4+–23.2%
4+–31.2%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-110%
- 2.1-110%
- 3.2-09%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.3-17%
Expected goals
2,10–1,09
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
113%
221%
322%
418%
5+22%
Under 2,538%
–
Over 2,562%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Rosenborg to win59%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Amin Chiakha to score32%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Amin Chiakha to score32%
- Ethan Amundsen-Day to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Hamarkameratene18% probability@9.03PinnacleEV+66%reference odds
- X · Draw23% probability@5.89PinnacleEV+33%reference odds
- Under 3.561% probability@1.72PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Rosenborg | X | 2 · Hamarkameratene |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.32 | EV+ 33% 5.89 | EV+ 66% 9.03 |
Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:32
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Rosenborg win since 31 August — the odds have shortened from 1.40 to 1.32 (−6%).
1-6 %
75 %65 %
1.40 → 1.32
X+17 %
23 %13 %
5.03 → 5.89
2+30 %
17 %7 %
6.93 → 9.03
Pinnacle · 16 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesRosenborg 3Draw 0Hamarkameratene 1
Goals: 5–4 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.
Key facts
- Rosenborg have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
- Rosenborg win 56% of their home matches all-time (39 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Rosenborg
Hamarkameratene
Rosenborg (27–26)
Hamarkameratene (26–32)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Rosenborg
Hamarkameratene
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Rosenborg
Hamarkameratene
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Rosenborg | Hamarkameratene |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 24 | 23 |
| xPoints | 26.3 | 22.6 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| Playing style | Rosenborg | Hamarkameratene |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| Field tilt | 0.53 | 0.35 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 0.84 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 18 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 390 | 370 |
| Passes against per match | 359 | 425 |
| Switches of play per match | 20.9 | 26.7 |
| Long balls per match | 26 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Rosenborg | Hamarkameratene |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 6.2 | 4.3 |
| Corners against per match | 6.2 | 5.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.4 | 0.37 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.61 | 0.59 |
| Other | Rosenborg | Hamarkameratene |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Leopold Wahlstedt (Rosenborg) | Marcus Sandberg (Hamarkameratene) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 56 | 64 |
| Save % | 68% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 47% | 47% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Rosenborg vs Hamarkameratene according to our model?
The model gives Rosenborg a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rosenborg 59%, draw 23%, Hamarkameratene 18%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.