01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Rosenborg to win51%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Norwegian Eliteserien12°19 km/h
Läs på svenska
RosenborgCounter-attacks & crossesvs
TromsøPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Rosenborg (51%)Best value by the model: 2 · Tromsø @ 4.95 (+22 %)
Rosenborg – Tromsø · Norwegian Eliteserien
1 · Rosenborg 51%X 24%25% Tromsø · 2
51%
24%
25%
Analysis: Rosenborg – Tromsø
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Rosenborg's 57% home win record might make them look like favorites, but there's more to this matchup than meets the eye. While the model leans towards a home victory, giving Rosenborg a 51% chance of winning, Tromsø's form this season cannot be ignored, as they lead on points with 34 compared to the hosts' 27. The expected goals tell a slightly different story, with both teams averaging 1.7 xG per match. Yet, the edge in xPoints is with Rosenborg, suggesting they've been a bit unlucky or inefficient compared to Tromsø.
Rosenborg's recent scoring streak—finding the net in nine consecutive league games—highlights their attacking potency, which might help them break down Tromsø's high press. However, Tromsø's strategy of possession and high pressing could disrupt Rosenborg’s rhythm, potentially leading to a tighter contest than expected. Despite the home advantage, Rosenborg’s defense, allowing 1.5 xGA per match, could be vulnerable to Tromsø's attacking phases.
The goal probabilities hint at a close affair, with the most likely scorelines being 1-1 and either team edging it with a single-goal margin. The over 2.5 goals probability at 51% barely tips the scale, but the model sees both teams scoring as slightly more probable. Yet, the smart money might be elsewhere.
Value hunters should note the odds suggesting value in betting on under 2.5 goals at 2.3 with Nordicbet, as the model calculates a 49% chance of that outcome, offering a 12% edge. Moreover, the away win at odds 4.5 with Betsson also presents a significant edge of 11% according to the model. While the hosts may have the edge in several metrics, Tromsø's value and form make them a tempting outsider bet.
RosenborgForm LWWLW
League ranking xG #6xGA #8xT #8xP/match #7Points #6
Key players
- Emil Konradsen CeideLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.19
- Amin ChiakhaFxG 0.51 · xT 0.05
- Iver FossumLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.14
TromsøForm LDL
League ranking xG #5xGA #4xT #5xP/match #5Points #3
Key players
- Daniel BrautFxG 0.54 · xT -0.02
- Abubacarr Sedi KintehCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.21
- Heine Asen LarsenFxG 0.52 · xT 0.04
Match prediction: Rosenborg – Tromsø
Predicted score matrix
Tromsø →
Rosenborg →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.9%
0–16.9%
0–23.9%
0–31.4%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–010.4%
1–112.1%
1–26.4%
1–32.3%
1–4+0.8%
2
2–08.7%
2–19.5%
2–25.2%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–04.7%
3–15.2%
3–22.8%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–02.8%
4+–13.0%
4+–21.6%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,63–1,09
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,70
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
@2.30EV+10%
Over 2,551%
@1.62
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Rosenborg to win51%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Amin Chiakha to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Amin Chiakha to score29%
- David Mikael Edvardsson to be booked26%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Tromsø25% probability@4.95BetssonEV+22%reference odds
- 2 · Tromsø25% probability@4.95NordicbetEV+22%reference odds
- 2 · Tromsø25% probability@4.90BetsafeEV+21%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Rosenborg | X | 2 · Tromsø |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.75 | 3.65 | EV+ 21% 4.90 |
| Betsson | 1.75 | 3.65 | EV+ 22% 4.95 |
| Nordicbet | 1.75 | 3.65 | EV+ 22% 4.95 |
| Pinnacle | 1.69 | EV+ 3% 4.21 | EV+ 17% 4.76 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:38
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Rosenborg win since 7 September — the odds have shortened from 1.78 to 1.69 (−5%).
1-5 %
57 %52 %
1.78 → 1.69
X+7 %
26 %21 %
3.94 → 4.21
2+12 %
24 %19 %
4.24 → 4.76
Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Rosenborg have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
- Rosenborg win 57% of their home matches all-time (40 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Rosenborg
Tromsø
Rosenborg (31–26)
Tromsø (32–17)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Rosenborg
Tromsø
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Rosenborg
Tromsø
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Rosenborg | Tromsø |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 27 | 34 |
| xPoints | 28.3 | 24.5 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.17 | 0.37 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| Playing style | Rosenborg | Tromsø |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.55 | 0.49 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 399 | 427 |
| Passes against per match | 354 | 432 |
| Switches of play per match | 21 | 23.3 |
| Long balls per match | 27 | 42 |
| Set pieces | Rosenborg | Tromsø |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 6.2 | 5.6 |
| Corners against per match | 6.1 | 4.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.61 | 0.55 |
| Other | Rosenborg | Tromsø |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Leopold Wahlstedt (Rosenborg) | Jakob Haugaard (Tromsø) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 58 | 3 |
| Save % | 69% | 60% |
| xG prevented | 49% | 33% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Rosenborg vs Tromsø according to our model?
The model gives Rosenborg a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rosenborg 51%, draw 24%, Tromsø 25%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.