01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Brann to win49%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
Norwegian Eliteserien17°1,5 mm19 km/h
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SandefjordPossession control0–0
BrannPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Brann (49%)
Sandefjord – Brann · Norwegian Eliteserien
1 · Sandefjord 27%X 23%49% Brann · 2
27%
23%
49%
Analysis: Sandefjord – Brann
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT: A clash of styles is unlikely when two possession-oriented teams, Sandefjord and Brann, meet. Both sides favor control and methodical buildup, setting the stage for a tactical battle rather than an open spectacle. Brann, with the upper hand historically in this fixture, have won three of their last five encounters against Sandefjord, a stat that weighs lightly given the small sample size but cannot be ignored.
The numbers paint a clear picture: Brann is favored with a 49% likelihood of victory, compared to Sandefjord’s 27%, and the probabilities suggest a tilt toward the visitors. The expected goals forecast of 1.94 for Brann versus 1.32 for Sandefjord underlines the visitors' attacking edge. This matches with Brann’s streak of scoring in 13 consecutive league matches, suggesting they have the firepower to breach the hosts' defense.
With a 63% probability for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score, the model leans towards a lively affair in terms of scoring despite the possession-heavy styles. This aligns with the most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 1-2, both at 10%. Yet, the visitors’ defensive solidity, reflected in their xGA of 1.6 compared to Sandefjord’s 1.8, might just tip the balance, forecasting a likely 1-2 win for Brann.
For those seeking value, Brann offers a promising opportunity. Nordicbet provides odds of 2.2 for an away win, translating to an 8% edge according to the model. Betsafe and Betsson also offer competitive odds at 2.18 and 2.15, respectively. These figures suggest a compelling case for backing Brann, with value clearly on their side.
SandefjordForm LLLLW
League ranking xG #13xGA #13xT #14xP/match #14Points #13
Key players
- Sebastian Holm MathisenFxG 0.40 · xT -0.02
- Evangelos PatoulidisRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.19
- Jakob DunsbyLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.20
BrannForm WWLWW
League ranking xG #3xGA #9xT #2xP/match #10Points #6
Key players
- Noah Jean HolmFxG 0.48 · xT 0.05
- Joachim SoltvedtLWBxG 0.21 · xT 0.36
- Denzel De RoeveRBxG 0.10 · xT 0.30
Final score
0 – 0
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Sandefjord 27% · Draw 23% · Brann 49%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - BrannBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,96fair 5,16-4 %
MissMatchresultat - SandefjordBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,92fair 11,30-30 %
MissMatch prediction: Sandefjord – Brann
Predicted score matrix
Brann →
Sandefjord →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.1%
0–17.2%
0–27.2%
0–34.7%
0–4+3.6%
1
1–04.8%
1–110.1%
1–29.5%
1–36.2%
1–4+4.7%
2
2–03.3%
2–16.5%
2–26.3%
2–34.1%
2–4+3.1%
3
3–01.5%
3–12.8%
3–22.8%
3–31.8%
3–4+1.4%
4+
4+–00.6%
4+–11.2%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.6%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.1-210%
- 3.0-27%
- 4.0-17%
- 5.2-16%
Expected goals
1,32–1,94
Both teams to score
63%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
112%
221%
322%
418%
5+23%
Under 2,537%
@2.55
Over 2,563%
@1.55
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Brann to win49%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Noah Emmanuel Jean Holm to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score63%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Noah Emmanuel Jean Holm to score28%
- Sander Risan Mørk to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Brann49% probability@2.20NordicbetEV+8%reference odds
- 2 · Brann49% probability@2.18BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
- 2 · Brann49% probability@2.15Bet365EV+6%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Sandefjord | X | 2 · Brann |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.70 | EV+ 6% 2.15 |
| Betsafe | 2.95 | 3.85 | EV+ 7% 2.18 |
| Betsson | 3.25 | 3.70 | EV+ 6% 2.15 |
| Nordicbet | 2.98 | 3.90 | EV+ 8% 2.20 |
| Pinnacle | 3.30 | 3.84 | EV+ 5% 2.13 |
Odds updated 30 Aug, 05:14
Odds movement
1+5 %
33 %28 %
3.14 → 3.30
X+3 %
28 %23 %
3.74 → 3.84
2-1 %
47 %42 %
2.16 → 2.13
Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 21/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesSandefjord 1Draw 1Brann 3
Goals: 4–8 (⌀ 2,4)
Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.
Key facts
- Brann dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
- Brann have scored in 13 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Sandefjord
Brann
Sandefjord (15–23)
Brann (36–27)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Sandefjord
Brann
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Sandefjord
Brann
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Sandefjord | Brann |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 18 | 25 |
| xPoints | 20.1 | 21.6 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| Playing style | Sandefjord | Brann |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.42 | 0.65 |
| xT per match | 0.86 | 1.6 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 21 |
| Entries into the box against | 18 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 393 | 431 |
| Passes against per match | 376 | 278 |
| Switches of play per match | 26.2 | 27.4 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 35 |
| Set pieces | Sandefjord | Brann |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 5.7 | 6.7 |
| Corners against per match | 6.6 | 5.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.3 | 0.42 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.65 | 0.61 |
| Other | Sandefjord | Brann |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.67 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Elias Hadaya (Sandefjord) | Mathias Dyngeland (Brann) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 60 | 30 |
| Save % | 72% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 51% | 38% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Sandefjord vs Brann according to our model?
The model gives Brann a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sandefjord 27%, draw 23%, Brann 49%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.