01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Viking to win56%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
Norwegian Eliteserien14°2,2 mm12 km/h
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SandefjordPossession controlvs
VikingPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Viking (56%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.68 (+3 %)
Sandefjord – Viking · Norwegian Eliteserien
1 · Sandefjord 22%X 22%56% Viking · 2
22%
22%
56%
Analysis: Sandefjord – Viking
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Viking's 56% win probability sets them firmly in the driver's seat against Sandefjord. This dominance is not only theoretical; it is backed by a perfect record in their past five encounters against the hosts. With 5 wins out of 5 since 2021, Viking has had the upper hand, a streak that fuels their confidence yet again. Notably, Sandefjord's inability to convert possession into tangible results has been a persistent issue, mirrored in their meager 19 points compared to Viking's formidable 43.
Expected goals add another layer to the prediction. Viking's xG of 2.01 against Sandefjord's 1.18 suggests a likely scoreline favoring the visitors. The model forecasts a 1-1 or 1-2 finish, with a lean towards Viking. The anticipated 3.6 goals per historical meeting points to a typically high-scoring affair, but 14.4 mm of rain could potentially dampen this, as heavy conditions often stifle scoring opportunities.
For betting angles, the under 3.5 goals market presents value. Both Betsson and Nordicbet offer odds of 1.7, with the model finding a 3% edge, rating it a 61% probability. Additionally, a sharper play can be found with under 2.5 at odds of 2.68 with Nordicbet, holding a firm 3% edge.
SandefjordForm LLLWD
League ranking xG #14xGA #14xT #15xP/match #13Points #12
Key players
- Sebastian Holm MathisenFxG 0.39 · xT -0.02
- Evangelos PatoulidisRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.19
- Vetle Walle EgeliLWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
VikingForm DWWLW
League ranking xG #2xGA #2xT #3xP/match #2Points #2
Key players
- Zlatko TripicLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.60
- Edvin AustboLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.18
- Henrik HeggheimRBxG 0.13 · xT 0.11
Match prediction: Sandefjord – Viking
Predicted score matrix
Viking →
Sandefjord →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.4%
0–18.0%
0–28.3%
0–35.6%
0–4+4.4%
1
1–04.6%
1–110.1%
1–29.8%
1–36.6%
1–4+5.2%
2
2–02.9%
2–15.8%
2–25.8%
2–33.9%
2–4+3.1%
3
3–01.1%
3–12.3%
3–22.3%
3–31.5%
3–4+1.2%
4+
4+–00.4%
4+–10.9%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.1-210%
- 3.0-28%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-37%
Expected goals
1,18–2,01
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
113%
221%
322%
418%
5+22%
Under 2,538%
@2.68EV+0%
Over 2,562%
@1.49
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Viking to win56%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Simen Kvia-Egeskog to score31%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Simen Kvia-Egeskog to score31%
- Sander Risan Mørk to be booked27%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.538% probability@2.68NordicbetEV+3%reference odds
- Under 3.561% probability@1.68BetssonEV+2%reference odds
- Under 3.561% probability@1.68NordicbetEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Sandefjord | X | 2 · Viking |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 0% 4.65 | 4.15 | 1.68 |
| Betsson | EV+ 1% 4.70 | 4.20 | 1.68 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 1% 4.70 | 4.20 | 1.68 |
| Pinnacle | 4.33 | 4.33 | 1.69 |
Odds updated 2 Sept, 20:36
Odds movement
1-5 %
24 %19 %
4.58 → 4.33
X-2 %
24 %19 %
4.40 → 4.33
2+3 %
59 %54 %
1.65 → 1.69
Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 02/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesSandefjord 0Draw 0Viking 5
Goals: 5–13 (⌀ 3,6)
Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.
Key facts
- Viking FK dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 0 in 5 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.6 goals per meeting on average.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Sandefjord
Viking
Sandefjord (15–23)
Viking (42–18)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Sandefjord
Viking
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Sandefjord
Viking
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Sandefjord | Viking |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 19 | 43 |
| xPoints | 21.9 | 28.9 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| Playing style | Sandefjord | Viking |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.42 | 0.6 |
| xT per match | 0.86 | 1.6 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 0.94 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 18 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 393 | 375 |
| Passes against per match | 379 | 353 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.6 | 26.5 |
| Long balls per match | 38 | 36 |
| Set pieces | Sandefjord | Viking |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| Corners per match | 5.6 | 7.1 |
| Corners against per match | 6.4 | 5.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.65 | 0.58 |
| Other | Sandefjord | Viking |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Elias Hadaya (Sandefjord) | Arild Ostbo (Viking) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 64 | 23 |
| Save % | 74% | 79% |
| xG prevented | 51% | 81% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Sandefjord vs Viking according to our model?
The model gives Viking a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sandefjord 22%, draw 22%, Viking 56%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.