Norwegian Eliteserien13°17 km/h

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    SarpsborgSarpsborgCounter-attacks & crosses
    2–2
    VålerengaVålerengaBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 1 · Sarpsborg (43%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 4.27 (+13 %)

    Sarpsborg – Vålerenga · Norwegian Eliteserien

    1 · Sarpsborg 43%X 26%31% Vålerenga · 2

    Analysis: Sarpsborg – Vålerenga

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    Sarpsborg's 43% win probability sets the stage for a clash where the hosts, with a counter-attacking and crossing style, hold a slight edge over the visitors. The narrow difference in points and expected points (xPoints) tips in favor of the home side, suggesting a team that has underperformed relative to its potential. Despite a small head-to-head sample where Sarpsborg has failed to secure a win, the match leans towards them as the more likely victor.

    Both teams are likely to find the back of the net, with a 64% probability for both sides to score and a 63% chance for the match to breach the 2.5-goal mark. Sarpsborg's attacking edge is palpable through their superior xG and marginally better xGA. Vålerenga's balanced and physical approach might struggle against Sarpsborg's pace and crossing, favoring a 2-1 outcome for the hosts as a plausible scoreline.

    Despite high odds for goals, the under 2.5 market presents compelling value. Nordicbet offers odds at 2.98, with a calculated 11% edge versus the model's rating of 37%. For those eyeing value, Betsafe and Betsson also stand at appealing odds, slightly lower yet still advantageous. The under represents a smart play against expectations.

    SarpsborgSarpsborg
    Form WDLLD
    League ranking xG #8xGA #6xT #10xP/match #4Points #10
    Key players
    • Daniel KarlsbakkFxG 0.37 · xT 0.06
    • Sondre SorliRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.10
    • Aimar SherCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
    VålerengaVålerenga
    Form WLLDD
    League ranking xG #10xGA #13xT #6xP/match #11Points #11
    Key players
    • Henrik BjordalRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.17
    • Mathias GrundetjernFxG 0.40 · xT 0.04
    • Elias SorensenFxG 0.19 · xT 0.12
    Final score
    2 – 2
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Sarpsborg 43% · Draw 26% · Vålerenga 31%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - VålerengaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,94fair 8,70-20 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Sarpsborg 08Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 4,11fair 6,09-33 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Sarpsborg – Vålerenga

    Predicted score matrix

    Vålerenga →
    Sarpsborg →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.2%
    0–15.5%
    0–24.3%
    0–32.1%
    0–4+1.1%
    1
    1–06.6%
    1–110.5%
    1–27.5%
    1–33.7%
    1–4+1.9%
    2
    2–06.1%
    2–19.0%
    2–26.6%
    2–33.3%
    2–4+1.7%
    3
    3–03.6%
    3–15.3%
    3–23.9%
    3–31.9%
    3–4+1.0%
    4+
    4+–02.3%
    4+–13.5%
    4+–22.5%
    4+–31.3%
    4+–4+0.6%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-28%
    4. 4.1-07%
    5. 5.2-27%
    Expected goals
    1,76–1,47
    Both teams to score
    64%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,2
    Under 2,537%
    @3.00EV+10%
    Over 2,563%
    @1.40

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Sarpsborg or draw (1X)68%
    • Over 1.5 goals84%

    Combined probability

    57%

    Fair odds

    1.75

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Sarpsborg or draw (1X)68%
    • Over 2.5 goals63%
    • Daniel Seland Karlsbakk to score21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score64%
    • Over 2.5 goals63%
    • Daniel Seland Karlsbakk to score21%
    • Fidèle Brice Ambina to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • X · Draw26% probability@4.27PinnacleEV+13%reference odds
    • Under 2.537% probability@3.00NordicbetEV+12%reference odds
    • Under 2.537% probability@2.98BetssonEV+11%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · SarpsborgX2 · Vålerenga
    Betsafe1.95
    EV+ 2%
    3.85
    EV+ 9%
    3.55
    Betsson1.95
    EV+ 3%
    3.90
    EV+ 10%
    3.60
    Nordicbet1.95
    EV+ 3%
    3.90
    EV+ 10%
    3.60
    Pinnacle1.96
    EV+ 13%
    4.27
    EV+ 6%
    3.46

    Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Sarpsborg win since 31 August — the odds have shortened from 2.18 to 1.96 (−10%).

    1-10 %
    52 %42 %

    2.18 → 1.96

    X+11 %
    29 %19 %

    3.83 → 4.27

    2+14 %
    35 %25 %

    3.04 → 3.46

    Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    3 matches
    Sarpsborg 0Draw 1Vålerenga 2
    Goals: 3–8 (⌀ 3,7)

    Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Sarpsborg
    Vålerenga
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Sarpsborg (20–23)
    Vålerenga (31–38)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Sarpsborg
    Anders Hiim: 236 passningar, xT 1.04HiimAimar Sher: 232 passningar, xT 0.48SherMarius Lode: 194 passningar, xT 0.23LodeClaus Niyukuri: 165 passningar, xT 0.41NiyukuriSander Christiansen: 158 passningar, xT 0.25ChristiansenBjørn Inge Utvik: 156 passningar, xT 0.25UtvikLeander Oy: 117 passningar, xT 0.29OyOlaus Jair Skarsem: 113 passningar, xT 0.56SkarsemSondre Sorli: 79 passningar, xT 0.61SorliAndreas Nibe Hansen: 65 passningar, xT 0.16HansenVictor Emanuel Halvorsen: 60 passningar, xT 0.11Halvorsen
    Vålerenga
    Aaron Kiil Olsen: 230 passningar, xT 0.35OlsenCarl Lange: 192 passningar, xT 0.38LangeKolbeinn Birgir Finnsson: 153 passningar, xT 1.18FinnssonIvan Tarek Fjellstad Näsberg: 142 passningar, xT 0.24NäsbergOscar Thore Hedvall: 120 passningar, xT 0.37HedvallSebastian Jarl: 107 passningar, xT 0.27JarlPetter Strand: 100 passningar, xT 0.44StrandHakon Sjatil: 89 passningar, xT 0.35SjatilLucas Janus Ravn-Haren: 83 passningar, xT 0.21Ravn-HarenMagnus Hee Westergaard: 78 passningar, xT -0.02WestergaardHenrik Bjordal: 63 passningar, xT 0.83Bjordal
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Sarpsborg
    Anders Hiim: 236 passningar, xT 1.04HiimAimar Sher: 232 passningar, xT 0.48SherMarius Lode: 194 passningar, xT 0.23LodeClaus Niyukuri: 165 passningar, xT 0.41NiyukuriSander Christiansen: 158 passningar, xT 0.25ChristiansenBjørn Inge Utvik: 156 passningar, xT 0.25UtvikLeander Oy: 117 passningar, xT 0.29OyOlaus Jair Skarsem: 113 passningar, xT 0.56SkarsemSondre Sorli: 79 passningar, xT 0.61SorliAndreas Nibe Hansen: 65 passningar, xT 0.16HansenVictor Emanuel Halvorsen: 60 passningar, xT 0.11Halvorsen
    Vålerenga
    Aaron Kiil Olsen: 230 passningar, xT 0.35OlsenCarl Lange: 192 passningar, xT 0.38LangeKolbeinn Birgir Finnsson: 153 passningar, xT 1.18FinnssonIvan Tarek Fjellstad Näsberg: 142 passningar, xT 0.24NäsbergOscar Thore Hedvall: 120 passningar, xT 0.37HedvallSebastian Jarl: 107 passningar, xT 0.27JarlPetter Strand: 100 passningar, xT 0.44StrandHakon Sjatil: 89 passningar, xT 0.35SjatilLucas Janus Ravn-Haren: 83 passningar, xT 0.21Ravn-HarenMagnus Hee Westergaard: 78 passningar, xT -0.02WestergaardHenrik Bjordal: 63 passningar, xT 0.83Bjordal

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceSarpsborgVålerenga
    Points2322
    xPoints27.522.7
    xG per match1.61.5
    xGA per match1.41.7
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.20.31
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.220.25
    Playing styleSarpsborgVålerenga
    Build-up efficiency0.360.36
    Field tilt0.380.5
    xT per match1.11.2
    xTA per match1.11.1
    Won balls, offensive half2325
    Pressing intensity0.240.23
    Pressing efficiency0.260.29
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.230.27
    Entries into the box per match1516
    Entries into the box against1916
    Pass completion %0.740.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.690.71
    Passes per match324370
    Passes against per match423386
    Switches of play per match25.623.4
    Long balls per match3232
    Set piecesSarpsborgVålerenga
    xG from free kicks0.040.01
    Corners per match4.86.7
    Corners against per match5.25.6
    xG per corner0.040.03
    xGA per corner against0.030.05
    First touch, offensive corners %0.470.42
    First touch, defensive corners %0.670.52
    OtherSarpsborgVålerenga
    Throw-in control0.720.75
    The goalkeepersMamour Ndiaye (Sarpsborg)Oscar Thore Hedvall (Vålerenga)
    Saves3460
    Save %74%61%
    xG prevented54%46%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Sarpsborg
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Vålerenga
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Sarpsborg vs Vålerenga according to our model?

    The model gives Sarpsborg a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sarpsborg 43%, draw 26%, Vålerenga 31%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.