01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Tromsø to win51%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Norwegian Eliteserien17°3,2 mm29 km/h
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TromsøPossession & high press0–0
SarpsborgCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Tromsø (51%)Best value by the model: 2 · Sarpsborg @ 5.45 (+37 %)
Tromsø – Sarpsborg · Norwegian Eliteserien
1 · Tromsø 51%X 24%25% Sarpsborg · 2
51%
24%
25%
Analysis: Tromsø – Sarpsborg
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
Tromsø enters the match with a clear 51% probability of winning, setting the tone for a clash where the hosts are favored to edge out Sarpsborg. This is underpinned by Tromsø's superior points tally of 34 compared to the visitors' 22. Despite this, the expected goals suggest a slightly tighter battle, with Tromsø expected to score 1.60 to Sarpsborg's 1.21. The 1-1 draw emerges as the most likely scoreline at 12%, though the model leans towards a narrow home victory at 1-0 or 2-1.
Digging deeper into the styles, Tromsø's possession and high press strategy contrasts sharply with Sarpsborg's counter-attacking and crossing game. This stylistic clash could lead to an open encounter, particularly given the slight edge the hosts hold in expected goals per match. Interestingly, both teams' expected goals against are identical at 1.4, suggesting that defensive vulnerabilities might be exposed. The probability of over 2.5 goals sits at 53%, just tipping the scales towards a higher-scoring game.
However, the sharpest angle lies in the value bet on Sarpsborg at 5.45 odds with Betsson and Nordicbet, a tempting proposition given the model's 25% probability for an upset. This represents a solid 37% edge, an opportunity for those willing to bet against the grain.
TromsøForm L
League ranking xG #5xGA #7xT #5xP/match #5Points #3
Key players
- Daniel BrautFxG 0.55 · xT -0.02
- Abubacarr Sedi KintehCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.21
- Heine Asen LarsenFxG 0.52 · xT 0.04
SarpsborgForm DWDLL
League ranking xG #8xGA #6xT #8xP/match #4Points #10
Key players
- Daniel KarlsbakkFxG 0.40 · xT 0.07
- Sondre SorliRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.10
- Aimar SherCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
Final score
0 – 0
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Tromsø 51% · Draw 24% · Sarpsborg 25%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Sarpsborg 08Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 17,94fair 13,20+36 %
MissMatchresultat - TromsøBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,82fair 7,58-36 %
MissMatch prediction: Tromsø – Sarpsborg
Predicted score matrix
Sarpsborg →
Tromsø →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.4%
0–17.0%
0–24.4%
0–31.8%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–09.3%
1–112.0%
1–27.0%
1–32.8%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.7%
2–19.3%
2–25.6%
2–32.3%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–04.1%
3–15.0%
3–23.0%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–02.3%
4+–12.8%
4+–21.7%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-09%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,60–1,21
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+15%
Under 2,547%
@2.40EV+1%
Over 2,553%
@1.70
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Tromsø to win51%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Lars Olden Larsen to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Sander Johan Christiansen to score21%
- David Mikael Edvardsson to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Sarpsborg25% probability@5.45BetssonEV+37%reference odds
- 2 · Sarpsborg25% probability@5.45NordicbetEV+37%reference odds
- 2 · Sarpsborg25% probability@5.35BetsafeEV+34%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Tromsø | X | 2 · Sarpsborg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.55 | 4.00 | EV+ 32% 5.25 |
| Betsafe | 1.60 | 4.05 | EV+ 34% 5.35 |
| Betsson | 1.65 | 3.90 | EV+ 37% 5.45 |
| Nordicbet | 1.62 | 4.10 | EV+ 37% 5.45 |
| Pinnacle | 1.73 | 3.99 | EV+ 22% 4.85 |
Odds updated 30 Aug, 05:14
Odds movement
1+7 %
60 %55 %
1.61 → 1.73
X-3 %
26 %21 %
4.10 → 3.99
2-7 %
22 %17 %
5.24 → 4.85
Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 21/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Tromsø
Sarpsborg
Tromsø (32–17)
Sarpsborg (20–23)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Tromsø
Sarpsborg
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Tromsø
Sarpsborg
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Tromsø | Sarpsborg |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 34 | 22 |
| xPoints | 24.5 | 26.7 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.37 | 0.21 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| Playing style | Tromsø | Sarpsborg |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| Field tilt | 0.49 | 0.38 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 19 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.76 | 0.68 |
| Passes per match | 428 | 316 |
| Passes against per match | 433 | 420 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.3 | 24.8 |
| Long balls per match | 43 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Tromsø | Sarpsborg |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 5.6 | 4.9 |
| Corners against per match | 4.5 | 5.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.36 | 0.47 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.67 |
| Other | Tromsø | Sarpsborg |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Jakob Haugaard (Tromsø) | Mamour Ndiaye (Sarpsborg) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 1 | 34 |
| Save % | 100% | 74% |
| xG prevented | 100% | 54% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Tromsø vs Sarpsborg according to our model?
The model gives Tromsø a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tromsø 51%, draw 24%, Sarpsborg 25%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.