Viking vs Kristiansund: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Norwegian Eliteserien12 September 202613°0,1 mm20 km/h

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VikingPossession & high press

KristiansundLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Viking (74%)Best value by the model: 2 · Kristiansund @ 11.00 (+17 %)

1 · Viking 74%X 16%11% Kristiansund · 2

74%

16%

Analysis: Viking – Kristiansund

Sofia Andersson · 11 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Viking have dominated Kristiansund in their last five meetings, winning each encounter, which sets the stage for another favorable outing for the hosts. Although it's a small sample, it aligns with the current form and strengths of the two teams. Viking's high-press, possession-driven style has proved effective against Kristiansund's more defensive, direct approach. This tactical imbalance, coupled with Viking's consistent goal-scoring form — netting in eight consecutive league matches — tilts the odds heavily in their favor.

The home side boasts a strong record, winning 65% of their matches at their ground historically. Their expected goals per match (1.9) significantly outpaces Kristiansund's (1.1), reflecting a clear attacking advantage. Moreover, Viking's defense is more robust, evidenced by a lower xGA per match at 1.2 compared to Kristiansund's 1.8. These metrics suggest Viking have the upper hand in both offensive and defensive phases.

Model probabilities place Viking at a commanding 74% chance of victory, with the most likely scorelines being 2-0 or 2-1. The over 2.5 goals market is active at 66%, indicating an expectation for multiple goals, despite the visitors' defensive setup. There is a reasonable chance (56%) for both teams to score, though Viking's superior quality could suppress Kristiansund's attacking efforts.

For those seeking a betting angle, there is notable value in Kristiansund's upset odds at 11.0 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model identifies an 11% chance for an away win, uncovering a 17% edge. While Viking remain heavy favorites, this could pique interest for risk-takers valuing high-return wagers.

Viking

Form WWLWD

League ranking xG #2xGA #2xT #3xP/match #2Points #2

Key players

Zlatko TripicLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.62
Edvin AustboLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.18
Peter ChristiansenFxG 0.36 · xT -0.02

Kristiansund

Form LWLDW

League ranking xG #16xGA #15xT #17xP/match #15Points #15

Key players

Leander AlvheimFxG 0.37 · xT 0.00
Jesper IsaksenLWBxG 0.09 · xT 0.06
Sander Hestetun KilenLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: Viking – Kristiansund

Predicted score matrix

Kristiansund →

Viking →

0–03.6%

0–12.9%

0–21.5%

0–30.5%

0–4+0.1%

1–08.0%

1–18.0%

1–23.7%

1–31.1%

1–4+0.3%

2–010.1%

2–19.5%

2–24.5%

2–31.4%

2–4+0.4%

3–08.2%

3–17.8%

3–23.7%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.3%

4+–09.1%

4+–18.5%

4+–24.0%

4+–31.3%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-010%
2.2-110%
3.3-08%
4.1-08%
5.1-18%

Expected goals

2,45–0,94

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

220%

322%

419%

5+25%

Under 2,534%

@3.10EV+4%

Over 2,566%

@1.38

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Viking to win74%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Viking to win74%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Peter Buch Christiansen to score38%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Peter Buch Christiansen to score38%
Heine Gikling Bruseth to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Kristiansund11% probability@11.00BetsafeEV+17%reference odds
2 · Kristiansund11% probability@11.00BetssonEV+17%reference odds
2 · Kristiansund11% probability@11.00NordicbetEV+17%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Viking	X	2 · Kristiansund
Betsafe	1.29	5.25	EV+ 17% 11.00
Betsson	1.30	5.35	EV+ 17% 11.00
Nordicbet	1.30	5.35	EV+ 17% 11.00
Pinnacle	1.27	EV+ 3% 6.60	7.97

Odds updated 11 Sept, 12:38

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Kristiansund win since 7 September — the odds have shortened from 9.24 to 7.97 (−14%).

1+2 %

78 %73 %

1.24 → 1.27

X-9 %

16 %11 %

7.22 → 6.60

2-14 %

14 %9 %

9.24 → 7.97

Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Viking 5Draw 0Kristiansund 0

Goals: 9–2 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.

Key facts

Viking FK dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 0 in 5 meetings.
Viking FK have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
Viking FK win 65% of their home matches all-time (83 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Viking

Kristiansund

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Viking (43–19)

Kristiansund (19–29)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Viking

Kristiansund

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Viking

Kristiansund

The teams in numbers

Performance	Viking	Kristiansund
Points	44	16
xPoints	30.5	21.1
xG per match	1.9	1.1
xGA per match	1.2	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.3	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.16	0.22

Playing style	Viking	Kristiansund
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.32
Field tilt	0.6	0.39
xT per match	1.6	0.73
xTA per match	0.93	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	28	25
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.2
Entries into the box per match	18	10
Entries into the box against	12	16
Pass completion %	0.75	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.73
Passes per match	372	321
Passes against per match	355	447
Switches of play per match	26.2	25.3
Long balls per match	36	35

Set pieces	Viking	Kristiansund
xG from free kicks	0.09	0.06
Corners per match	7	4.3
Corners against per match	5.4	6.7
xG per corner	0.04	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.35	0.48
First touch, defensive corners %	0.56	0.71

Other	Viking	Kristiansund
Throw-in control	0.72	0.67

The goalkeepers	Arild Ostbo (Viking)	Adrian Saether (Kristiansund)
Saves	23	42
Save %	77%	68%
xG prevented	80%	54%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Viking

Fixtures, form & tips

Kristiansund

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Viking vs Kristiansund according to our model?

The model gives Viking a 74% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Viking 74%, draw 16%, Kristiansund 11%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.