Ekstraklasa13°0,1 mm7 km/h

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    Górnik ZabrzeGórnik ZabrzePossession control
    vs
    Lech PoznańLech PoznańPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Lech Poznań (51%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 5.50 (+30 %)

    Górnik Zabrze – Lech Poznań · Ekstraklasa

    1 · Górnik Zabrze 25%X 24%51% Lech Poznań · 2

    Analysis: Górnik Zabrze – Lech Poznań

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Lech Poznań's chances of securing a victory against Górnik Zabrze are pegged at 51%, a solid indicator of their dominance in this matchup. Despite Zabrze's commendable streak of scoring in eight consecutive league matches, the visitors' recent form is hard to overlook, with five straight wins under their belt. Moreover, Lech's defensive capabilities, highlighted by an xGA of just 0.82, provide a sturdy backbone against the hosts who exhibit a possession control style.

    With a small head-to-head sample of just four matches since 2023, it's clear Lech has had the upper hand, winning three out of these encounters. While Górnik boasts a 57% all-time home win rate (37 matches played), the statistical edge remains with Lech, both in terms of xPoints and xG per match. The most likely scoreline according to the model is a 1-1 draw at 12%, but Lech's superior metrics suggest a 0-1 or 1-2 result isn't far-fetched.

    The opportunistic play is on Lech Poznań to win, especially with value betting odds of 2.3 at Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, offering a 16% edge. While the over 2.5 goals sits at a slight 52%, the defensive control suggests a more conservative total, solidifying the appeal of backing the visitors at favorable odds.

    Górnik ZabrzeGórnik Zabrze
    Form WWLWW
    League ranking xG #6xGA #4xT #12xP/match #2Points #2
    Key players
    • Erik JanžaLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.26
    • Maksym KhlanLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.12
    • Kacper UrbanskiCAMxG 0.54 · xT 0.05
    Lech PoznańLech Poznań
    Form WWWWW
    League ranking xG #3xGA #1xT #2xP/match #1Points #1
    Key players
    • Mel Yannick Joel AgneroFxG 0.59 · xT 0.12
    • Mikael IshakFxG 0.61 · xT 0.14
    • Joel PereiraRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.48

    Match prediction: Górnik Zabrze – Lech Poznań

    Predicted score matrix

    Lech Poznań →
    Górnik Zabrze →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.7%
    0–19.8%
    0–28.0%
    0–34.2%
    0–4+2.3%
    1
    1–07.1%
    1–112.2%
    1–29.3%
    1–34.9%
    1–4+2.8%
    2
    2–04.4%
    2–16.9%
    2–25.5%
    2–32.9%
    2–4+1.6%
    3
    3–01.7%
    3–12.7%
    3–22.1%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–00.6%
    4+–11.0%
    4+–20.8%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.0-110%
    3. 3.1-29%
    4. 4.0-28%
    5. 5.1-07%
    Expected goals
    1,17–1,58
    Both teams to score
    55%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,548%
    @2.40EV+4%
    Over 2,552%
    @1.62

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Lech Poznań to win51%
    • Over 1.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    37%

    Fair odds

    2.73

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Lech Poznań to win51%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Pablo Rodríguez Delgado to score21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score55%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Pablo Rodríguez Delgado to score21%
    • Radosław Paweł Murawski to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 1.524% probability@5.50Paddy PowerEV+30%reference odds
    • 2 · Lech Poznań51% probability@2.50Paddy PowerEV+27%reference odds
    • 2 · Lech Poznań51% probability@2.32PinnacleEV+17%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Górnik ZabrzeX2 · Lech Poznań
    Betsafe2.753.40
    EV+ 16%
    2.30
    Betsson2.753.40
    EV+ 16%
    2.30
    Nordicbet2.753.40
    EV+ 16%
    2.30
    Paddy Power2.303.60
    EV+ 27%
    2.50
    Pinnacle2.973.57
    EV+ 17%
    2.32

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:38

    Odds movement

    1+6 %
    35 %30 %

    2.81 → 2.97

    X+3 %
    30 %25 %

    3.46 → 3.57

    2-4 %
    43 %38 %

    2.41 → 2.32

    Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Górnik Zabrze 1Draw 0Lech Poznań 3
    Goals: 3–6 (⌀ 2,2)

    Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Gornik Zabrze have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
    • Lech Poznan come into this round on 5 straight wins.
    • Gornik Zabrze win 57% of their home matches all-time (37 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Górnik Zabrze
    Lech Poznań
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Górnik Zabrze (12–7)
    Lech Poznań (11–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Górnik Zabrze
    Kacper Urbanski: 206 passningar, xT 0.03UrbanskiMichal Sáček: 195 passningar, xT 0.51SáčekRafał Janicki: 194 passningar, xT 0.54JanickiJosé Manuel Sánchez Guillén: 131 passningar, xT 0.34GuillénErik Janža: 122 passningar, xT 0.68JanžaMaksym Khlan: 101 passningar, xT 0.35KhlanPaulo Guilherme Gonçalves Bernardo: 84 passningar, xT -0.04BernardoPeter Federico González Carmona: 83 passningar, xT 0.15CarmonaPhilipp Schulze: 78 passningar, xT 0.13SchulzeOndřej Zmrzlý: 65 passningar, xT 0.44ZmrzlýLukáš Sadílek: 62 passningar, xT 0.06Sadílek
    Lech Poznań
    Wojciech Mońka: 286 passningar, xT 0.3MońkaJoel Pereira: 251 passningar, xT 2.42PereiraRadoslaw Murawski: 208 passningar, xT 0.34MurawskiMichal Gurgul: 206 passningar, xT 0.59GurgulMateusz Skrzypczak: 157 passningar, xT 0.2SkrzypczakMateusz Lis: 140 passningar, xT 0.03LisPablo Rodriguez: 98 passningar, xT 0.66RodriguezTerry Yegbe: 88 passningar, xT 0.14YegbeLuis Palma: 67 passningar, xT 0.74PalmaAllahyar Sayyadmanesh: 65 passningar, xT 0.29SayyadmaneshAntoni Kozubal: 63 passningar, xT 0.06Kozubal
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Górnik Zabrze
    Kacper Urbanski: 206 passningar, xT 0.03UrbanskiMichal Sáček: 195 passningar, xT 0.51SáčekRafał Janicki: 194 passningar, xT 0.54JanickiJosé Manuel Sánchez Guillén: 131 passningar, xT 0.34GuillénErik Janža: 122 passningar, xT 0.68JanžaMaksym Khlan: 101 passningar, xT 0.35KhlanPaulo Guilherme Gonçalves Bernardo: 84 passningar, xT -0.04BernardoPeter Federico González Carmona: 83 passningar, xT 0.15CarmonaPhilipp Schulze: 78 passningar, xT 0.13SchulzeOndřej Zmrzlý: 65 passningar, xT 0.44ZmrzlýLukáš Sadílek: 62 passningar, xT 0.06Sadílek
    Lech Poznań
    Wojciech Mońka: 286 passningar, xT 0.3MońkaJoel Pereira: 251 passningar, xT 2.42PereiraRadoslaw Murawski: 208 passningar, xT 0.34MurawskiMichal Gurgul: 206 passningar, xT 0.59GurgulMateusz Skrzypczak: 157 passningar, xT 0.2SkrzypczakMateusz Lis: 140 passningar, xT 0.03LisPablo Rodriguez: 98 passningar, xT 0.66RodriguezTerry Yegbe: 88 passningar, xT 0.14YegbeLuis Palma: 67 passningar, xT 0.74PalmaAllahyar Sayyadmanesh: 65 passningar, xT 0.29SayyadmaneshAntoni Kozubal: 63 passningar, xT 0.06Kozubal

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceGórnik ZabrzeLech Poznań
    Points1516
    xPoints9.610.9
    xG per match1.71.8
    xGA per match1.30.82
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.180.39
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.230.07
    Playing styleGórnik ZabrzeLech Poznań
    Build-up efficiency0.320.3
    Field tilt0.530.59
    xT per match1.11.5
    xTA per match1.20.83
    Won balls, offensive half2824
    Pressing intensity0.240.24
    Pressing efficiency0.320.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.260.25
    Entries into the box per match1616
    Entries into the box against159
    Pass completion %0.750.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.70.71
    Passes per match335372
    Passes against per match347336
    Switches of play per match20.826.6
    Long balls per match2630
    Set piecesGórnik ZabrzeLech Poznań
    xG from free kicks0.180.04
    Corners per match6.27.3
    Corners against per match3.84
    xG per corner0.040.02
    xGA per corner against0.010.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.490.32
    First touch, defensive corners %0.650.79
    OtherGórnik ZabrzeLech Poznań
    Throw-in control0.670.74
    The goalkeepersPhilipp Schulze (Górnik Zabrze)Mateusz Lis (Lech Poznań)
    Saves1712
    Save %71%75%
    xG prevented31%60%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Górnik Zabrze
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Lech Poznań
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Górnik Zabrze vs Lech Poznań according to our model?

    The model gives Lech Poznań a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Górnik Zabrze 25%, draw 24%, Lech Poznań 51%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Postponed — now 15 September

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.