Jagiellonia Białystok vs Slask Wroclaw: Prediction & Odds (6 Sept 2026)

Ekstraklasa6 September 202614°2,2 mm21 km/h

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Jagiellonia BiałystokPossession control

2–1

Slask WroclawLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Jagiellonia Białystok (59%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 4.80 (+5 %)

1 · Jagiellonia Białystok 59%X 20%20% Slask Wroclaw · 2

59%

20%

Analysis: Jagiellonia Białystok – Slask Wroclaw

Marcus Johansson · 4 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The model gives Jagiellonia Białystok a solid 59% win probability, a clear lean towards the hosts. Their possession-based style contrasts sharply with Slask Wroclaw's low block and direct approach, hinting at a clash of football philosophies. Despite an unbeaten head-to-head record since 2023, the small sample of two draws weighs less than their current form and expected goals. Slask's defensive resilience could be tested against Jagiellonia's controlled build-up.

Both teams have vulnerabilities—Jagiellonia's 1.6 xGA suggests they struggle defensively, while Slask's 1.4 xG indicates inefficiencies in attacking play. Yet, the expected goals tilt in Jagiellonia's favor at 1.98 to 1.22, reinforcing their edge. With 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, the numbers hint at a match that could open up, despite the potential dampening effect of rain.

The likeliest scorelines—1-1 and 2-1—reflect the delicate balance between these sides. However, Jagiellonia's home advantage and superior xG suggest a 2-1 victory is within reach. For those seeking value, the over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.80 with Unibet aligns well with the statistical outlook, offering an enticing punt.

Jagiellonia Białystok

Form WWLWL

League ranking xG #6xGA #9xT #7xP/match #10Points #6

Key players

Guilherme Manuel Serrão MontóiaLBxG 0.18 · xT 0.27
Kajetan SzmytLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.09
Nik PrelecFxG 0.51 · xT 0.04

Slask Wroclaw

Form WDLDD

League ranking xG #14xGA #8xT #2xP/match #9Points #14

Key players

Piotr Samiec-TalarRWxG 0.32 · xT 0.31
Luka MarjanacFxG 0.43 · xT 0.23
Przemyslaw BanaszakFxG 0.30 · xT 0.12

Final score

2 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Jagiellonia Białystok 59% · Draw 20% · Slask Wroclaw 20%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Jagiellonia BialystokBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,36fair 5,10-14 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Slask WroclawBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 10,74fair 13,42-20 %

Miss

Match prediction: Jagiellonia Białystok – Slask Wroclaw

Predicted score matrix

Slask Wroclaw →

Jagiellonia Białystok →

0–04.4%

0–14.7%

0–23.0%

0–31.2%

0–4+0.5%

1–07.8%

1–110.2%

1–26.0%

1–32.5%

1–4+1.0%

2–08.0%

2–19.7%

2–26.0%

2–32.4%

2–4+1.0%

3–05.3%

3–16.4%

3–23.9%

3–31.6%

3–4+0.6%

4+–04.1%

4+–15.0%

4+–23.0%

4+–31.2%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-110%
3.2-08%
4.1-08%
5.3-16%

Expected goals

1,98–1,22

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+22%

Under 2,538%

@2.35

Over 2,562%

@1.60

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Jagiellonia Białystok to win59%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Jagiellonia Białystok to win59%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Sergio Lozano Lluch to score38%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Sergio Lozano Lluch to score38%
Irodotos Christodoulou to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 4.522% probability@4.80Paddy PowerEV+5%reference odds
Over 3.540% probability@2.60Paddy PowerEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Jagiellonia Białystok	X	2 · Slask Wroclaw
Betfair Exchange	1.10	1.10	1.10
Betsafe	1.68	3.85	4.10
Betsson	1.68	3.85	4.10
Nordicbet	1.68	3.85	4.10
Paddy Power	1.67	3.80	4.20
Pinnacle	1.68	4.32	4.57

Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36

Odds movement

1+2 %

59 %54 %

1.64 → 1.68

X+2 %

25 %20 %

4.24 → 4.32

2+1 %

23 %18 %

4.53 → 4.57

Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 04/09/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Jagiellonia Białystok 0Draw 2Slask Wroclaw 0

Goals: 3–3 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Jagiellonia Białystok

Slask Wroclaw

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Jagiellonia Białystok (9–7)

Slask Wroclaw (8–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Jagiellonia Białystok

Slask Wroclaw

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Jagiellonia Białystok

Slask Wroclaw

The teams in numbers

Performance	Jagiellonia Białystok	Slask Wroclaw
Points	9	6
xPoints	6.7	8.3
xG per match	1.7	1.4
xGA per match	1.6	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.13	0.36
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.49	0.32

Playing style	Jagiellonia Białystok	Slask Wroclaw
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.3
Field tilt	0.57	0.57
xT per match	1.2	1.3
xTA per match	1.1	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	22	25
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.24
Entries into the box per match	15	18
Entries into the box against	13	16
Pass completion %	0.79	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.7
Passes per match	397	305
Passes against per match	293	346
Switches of play per match	23.1	19.6
Long balls per match	31	27

Set pieces	Jagiellonia Białystok	Slask Wroclaw
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.01
Corners per match	4.2	3.7
Corners against per match	4.6	5.5
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.57
First touch, defensive corners %	0.61	0.62

Other	Jagiellonia Białystok	Slask Wroclaw
Throw-in control	0.76	0.74

The goalkeepers	Slawomir Abramowicz (Jagiellonia Białystok)	Karol Stanisław Niemczycki (Slask Wroclaw)
Saves	13	20
Save %	65%	74%
xG prevented	43%	65%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Jagiellonia Białystok

Fixtures, form & tips

Slask Wroclaw

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Jagiellonia Białystok vs Slask Wroclaw according to our model?

The model gives Jagiellonia Białystok a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jagiellonia Białystok 59%, draw 20%, Slask Wroclaw 20%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.