Korona Kielce vs Wisla Krakow: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

Ekstraklasa5 September 202618°3,0 mm27 km/h

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Korona KielceCounter-attacks & crosses

1–1

Wisla KrakowPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Korona Kielce (49%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 6.50 (+21 %)

1 · Korona Kielce 49%X 27%24% Wisla Krakow · 2

49%

27%

24%

Analysis: Korona Kielce – Wisla Krakow

Sofia Andersson · 4 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

With Korona Kielce holding a 49% chance to win against Wisla Krakow, the model clearly leans towards the hosts despite their lower points tally. The key here is the discrepancy between performance and expected performance. Korona's expected goals (xG) sit at 1.76 compared to Wisla's 1.25, suggesting they have the potential to be more lethal in attack. This, coupled with Wisla's ability to control possession, sets the stage for a tactical battle between counter-attacks and ball retention.

Interestingly, Wisla's actual points and expected points both edge out their rivals, indicating they've been more consistent or perhaps luckier in converting opportunities or avoiding costly errors. However, their xG per match of 2.0 compared to Korona's 1.2 tells a tale of a team that creates more chances but doesn't necessarily translate this into a higher probability win in this matchup. Their xGA also slightly improves on Korona's, pointing to a marginally tighter defense.

Given the model's preference for Korona, there's value in betting on the home side at odds 2.18, available with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. This represents an 8% edge, a significant mark when assessing potential returns. The most likely scorelines, with 1-1 and 2-1 leading the pack, suggest a close and competitive game, with a slight lean towards over 2.5 goals at 58%. Both teams finding the net at 59% further supports this narrative.

A small head-to-head sample means little weight should be placed on past encounters; the current season's dynamics are more telling. The interplay of styles—Korona's counter-attacking against Wisla's possession—could determine the match's rhythm. While the 1-1 draw looms as the single most probable scoreline, Korona's knack for exploiting defensive gaps could tip the balance to a 2-1 home victory.

Ultimately, the sharpest angle here is the value on Korona at 2.18. The odds reflect not only a likely outcome but a strategic opportunity based on performance indicators rather than table placements.

Korona Kielce

Form LDWDW

League ranking xG #17xGA #11xT #18xP/match #12Points #9

Key players

Mariusz Paweł StępińskiFxG 0.35 · xT 0.00
Wiktor DlugoszRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.12
Morgan FassbenderLWxG 0.32 · xT 0.01

Wisla Krakow

Form LWLDW

League ranking xG #1xGA #6xT #12xP/match #3Points #4

Key players

Jordi Sánchez RibasFxG 0.73 · xT 0.06
Julian LelieveldRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.26
Thody Élie YouanRWxG 0.37 · xT 0.07

Final score

1 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Korona Kielce 49% · Draw 27% · Wisla Krakow 24%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Korona KielceBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,24fair 6,28-1 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Wisla KrakowBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 8,24fair 12,29-33 %

Miss

Match prediction: Korona Kielce – Wisla Krakow

Predicted score matrix

Wisla Krakow →

Korona Kielce →

0–05.3%

0–15.9%

0–23.9%

0–31.6%

0–4+0.7%

1–08.3%

1–111.2%

1–26.8%

1–32.8%

1–4+1.2%

2–07.6%

2–19.5%

2–26.0%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.0%

3–04.4%

3–15.6%

3–23.5%

3–31.5%

3–4+0.6%

4+–02.9%

4+–13.6%

4+–22.3%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-08%
4.2-08%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,76–1,25

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,542%

@2.05

Over 2,558%

@1.80EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Korona Kielce to win49%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Korona Kielce to win49%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Mariusz Paweł Stępiński to score36%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Mariusz Paweł Stępiński to score36%
Alan Uryga to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 4.519% probability@6.50Paddy PowerEV+21%reference odds
1 · Korona Kielce49% probability@2.28PinnacleEV+13%reference odds
1 · Korona Kielce49% probability@2.22BetsafeEV+10%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Korona Kielce	X	2 · Wisla Krakow
Betsafe	EV+ 10% 2.22	3.35	2.95
Betsson	EV+ 10% 2.22	3.35	2.95
Nordicbet	EV+ 10% 2.22	3.35	2.95
Paddy Power	EV+ 1% 2.05	3.40	3.00
Pinnacle	EV+ 13% 2.28	3.50	3.14

Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:32

Odds movement

1+2 %

45 %40 %

2.23 → 2.28

X-2 %

29 %24 %

3.56 → 3.50

2+4 %

33 %28 %

3.03 → 3.14

Over 2,5+6 %

58 %53 %

1.69 → 1.80

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Korona Kielce

Wisla Krakow

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Korona Kielce (6–4)

Wisla Krakow (12–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Korona Kielce

Wisla Krakow

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Korona Kielce

Wisla Krakow

The teams in numbers

Performance	Korona Kielce	Wisla Krakow
Points	8	10
xPoints	6.3	9.8
xG per match	1.2	2
xGA per match	1.6	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.25	0.07
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.17	0.2

Playing style	Korona Kielce	Wisla Krakow
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.27
Field tilt	0.51	0.55
xT per match	0.72	1
xTA per match	1.2	1
Won balls, offensive half	25	24
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.24
Entries into the box per match	12	13
Entries into the box against	14	13
Pass completion %	0.76	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.73
Passes per match	337	364
Passes against per match	359	330
Switches of play per match	27.6	20.9
Long balls per match	33	25

Set pieces	Korona Kielce	Wisla Krakow
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.02
Corners per match	4.1	5.3
Corners against per match	6.5	5.6
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.32
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.58

Other	Korona Kielce	Wisla Krakow
Throw-in control	0.75	0.79

The goalkeepers	Xavier Dziekonski (Korona Kielce)	Marcel Łubik (Wisla Krakow)
Saves	11	27
Save %	73%	73%
xG prevented	55%	44%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Korona Kielce

Fixtures, form & tips

Wisla Krakow

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Korona Kielce vs Wisla Krakow according to our model?

The model gives Korona Kielce a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Korona Kielce 49%, draw 27%, Wisla Krakow 24%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.