01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Legia Warszawa to win63%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Ekstraklasa16°9 km/h
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Legia WarszawaPossession & high pressvs
Widzew ŁódźPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Legia Warszawa (63%)
Legia Warszawa – Widzew Łódź · Ekstraklasa
1 · Legia Warszawa 63%X 21%16% Widzew Łódź · 2
63%
21%
16%
Analysis: Legia Warszawa – Widzew Łódź
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT: Legia Warszawa's current form and statistical edge paint a clear picture ahead of their clash with Widzew Łódź. With a 63% chance of victory according to model probabilities, Legia stand as clear favorites. Their unbeaten streak of ten league matches complements a potent attack that has found the net in each of these contests. The numbers suggest a likely scoreline of 2-0 or 2-1, further emphasizing Legia's upper hand.
Despite both teams adopting a possession-based, high-press style, Legia's execution has been superior. They average 1.9 expected goals per match compared to Widzew's 1.7, while also maintaining a tighter defensive record with an xGA of 1.1 against Widzew's 1.2. Even with Widzew's slight edge in expected points, Legia's ability to both create and convert chances should see them prevail.
The head-to-head record, albeit with a small sample size of four matches, further tilts the scales in Legia's favor. Three wins and one draw since 2023 reinforce their dominance in this matchup. Widzew, with just a 16% probability of victory, face an uphill battle against a team that has consistently demonstrated superiority both historically and in current form.
With a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals, the game could see more than a couple of goals, but caution is warranted given the clash of similar playing styles. Both teams to score is also reasonably probable at 53%, suggesting Widzew might find a way through Legia's defenses, albeit not enough to tilt the balance.
The sharpest angle remains backing Legia to continue their imperious form with another victory.
Legia WarszawaForm WDWDD
League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #8xP/match #5Points #3
Key players
- Mileta RajovicFxG 0.46 · xT -0.02
- Łukasz ZjawińskiFxG 0.46 · xT 0.03
- Damian Dawid SzymańskiCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.07
Widzew ŁódźForm DWLDL
League ranking xG #7xGA #4xT #11xP/match #4Points #13
Key players
- Juljan ShehuCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.15
- Francisco Javier Álvarez RodríguezCMxG 0.13 · xT 0.07
- Christopher ChengLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.05
Match prediction: Legia Warszawa – Widzew Łódź
Predicted score matrix
Widzew Łódź →
Legia Warszawa →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.0%
0–14.1%
0–22.0%
0–30.6%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–09.8%
1–19.5%
1–24.3%
1–31.3%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–010.7%
2–19.9%
2–24.5%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–07.6%
3–17.0%
3–23.2%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–06.7%
4+–16.2%
4+–22.8%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-011%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-010%
- 4.1-110%
- 5.3-08%
Expected goals
2,14–0,92
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,541%
@1.90
Over 2,559%
@1.90EV+11%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Legia Warszawa to win63%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Mileta Rajović to score42%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Mileta Rajović to score42%
- Przemysław Wiśniewski to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Legia Warszawa63% probability@1.85PinnacleEV+17%reference odds
- 1 · Legia Warszawa63% probability@1.85BetsafeEV+17%reference odds
- 1 · Legia Warszawa63% probability@1.85BetssonEV+17%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Legia Warszawa | X | 2 · Widzew Łódź |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 17% 1.85 | 3.40 | 3.95 |
| Betsson | EV+ 17% 1.85 | 3.40 | 3.95 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 17% 1.85 | 3.40 | 3.95 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 17% 1.85 | 3.57 | 4.10 |
Odds updated 7 Sept, 05:13
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesLegia Warszawa 3Draw 1Widzew Łódź 0
Goals: 6–2 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.
Key facts
- Legia Warszawa are unbeaten in their last 10 league matches.
- Legia Warszawa have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Legia Warszawa
Widzew Łódź
Legia Warszawa (12–4)
Widzew Łódź (10–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Legia Warszawa
Widzew Łódź
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Legia Warszawa
Widzew Łódź
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Legia Warszawa | Widzew Łódź |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 12 | 6 |
| xPoints | 9.4 | 9.5 |
| xG per match | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.15 | 0.32 |
| Playing style | Legia Warszawa | Widzew Łódź |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.58 | 0.4 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.75 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 33 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 359 | 284 |
| Passes against per match | 331 | 349 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.8 | 25.3 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Legia Warszawa | Widzew Łódź |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| Corners per match | 5.2 | 5.3 |
| Corners against per match | 3.5 | 6.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.52 | 0.68 |
| Other | Legia Warszawa | Widzew Łódź |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.68 |
| The goalkeepers | Ottó Hindrich (Legia Warszawa) | Bartłomiej Drągowski (Widzew Łódź) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 16 | 23 |
| Save % | 80% | 74% |
| xG prevented | 49% | 81% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź according to our model?
The model gives Legia Warszawa a 63% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Legia Warszawa 63%, draw 21%, Widzew Łódź 16%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.