01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Górnik Zabrze to win48%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Ekstraklasa14°0,6 mm13 km/h
Läs på svenskaAnna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
The text includes a specific betting odd ("2.10 odds") for Górnik Zabrze's win that is not supported by any data in the FACTS. This appears to be a fabricated/unsupported claim and should be removed.
Corrected text:
In the battle between contrasting styles, Motor Lublin's reliance on counterattacks and crosses will face off against Górnik Zabrze's possession-based approach. This tactical clash could be the key determinant of the match's outcome. The probability models favor the visitors, Górnik Zabrze, with a 48% chance of winning, suggesting an edge over the hosts, whose chances are pegged at 28%.
Górnik Zabrze's recent form is compelling, as they have found the back of the net in eight consecutive league matches. This scoring streak might pose considerable problems for Motor Lublin's defense, which allows an average of 1.9 xGA per game. Although the head-to-head record slightly tilts in Lublin's favor, the sample size is small, and recent form along with expected goals hint that Górnik Zabrze might have the upper hand this time around.
The expected goals (xG) model suggests a tight encounter, forecasting 1.30 xG for Lublin and 1.56 xG for Zabrze. A narrow 1-2 or 0-1 victory for the visitors appears likely given these numbers. The match is expected to hover around the over/under 2.5 goals line, with a slight 54% lean towards the over, indicating the possibility of a match with marginally more than two goals.
For bettors seeking value, Górnik Zabrze's win presents a potentially attractive opportunity, based on both their superior points tally and recent attacking consistency. While no outcome can be guaranteed, the numbers suggest a calculated risk favoring the visitors, who will aim to control the game and exploit Lublin's defensive vulnerabilities.
01 · 2 legs
02 · 3 legs
03 · 4 legs
No odds available yet.
Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
| Performance | Motor Lublin | Górnik Zabrze |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 5 | 15 |
| xPoints | 8.6 | 9.6 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.35 | 0.18 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| Playing style | Motor Lublin | Górnik Zabrze |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.47 | 0.53 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.99 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 322 | 335 |
| Passes against per match | 395 | 347 |
| Switches of play per match | 22.2 | 20.8 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 26 |
| Set pieces | Motor Lublin | Górnik Zabrze |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.18 |
| Corners per match | 4.3 | 6.2 |
| Corners against per match | 2.7 | 3.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.11 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.17 | 0.49 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.47 | 0.65 |
| Other | Motor Lublin | Górnik Zabrze |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| The goalkeepers | Mihai Maximilian Popa (Motor Lublin) | Philipp Schulze (Górnik Zabrze) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 10 | 17 |
| Save % | 56% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 36% | 31% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
The model gives Górnik Zabrze a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Motor Lublin 28%, draw 24%, Górnik Zabrze 48%.
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.