Ekstraklasa14°0,6 mm13 km/h

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    Motor LublinMotor LublinCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    Górnik ZabrzeGórnik ZabrzePossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · Górnik Zabrze (48%)

    Motor LublinGórnik Zabrze · Ekstraklasa

    1 · Motor Lublin 28%X 24%48% Górnik Zabrze · 2

    Analysis: Motor LublinGórnik Zabrze

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    The text includes a specific betting odd ("2.10 odds") for Górnik Zabrze's win that is not supported by any data in the FACTS. This appears to be a fabricated/unsupported claim and should be removed.

    Corrected text:

    In the battle between contrasting styles, Motor Lublin's reliance on counterattacks and crosses will face off against Górnik Zabrze's possession-based approach. This tactical clash could be the key determinant of the match's outcome. The probability models favor the visitors, Górnik Zabrze, with a 48% chance of winning, suggesting an edge over the hosts, whose chances are pegged at 28%.

    Górnik Zabrze's recent form is compelling, as they have found the back of the net in eight consecutive league matches. This scoring streak might pose considerable problems for Motor Lublin's defense, which allows an average of 1.9 xGA per game. Although the head-to-head record slightly tilts in Lublin's favor, the sample size is small, and recent form along with expected goals hint that Górnik Zabrze might have the upper hand this time around.

    The expected goals (xG) model suggests a tight encounter, forecasting 1.30 xG for Lublin and 1.56 xG for Zabrze. A narrow 1-2 or 0-1 victory for the visitors appears likely given these numbers. The match is expected to hover around the over/under 2.5 goals line, with a slight 54% lean towards the over, indicating the possibility of a match with marginally more than two goals.

    For bettors seeking value, Górnik Zabrze's win presents a potentially attractive opportunity, based on both their superior points tally and recent attacking consistency. While no outcome can be guaranteed, the numbers suggest a calculated risk favoring the visitors, who will aim to control the game and exploit Lublin's defensive vulnerabilities.

    Motor LublinMotor Lublin
    Form LWDLL
    League ranking xG #12xGA #16xT #4xP/match #15Points #15
    Key players
    • Karol CzubakFxG 0.59 · xT -0.01
    • Christopher SimonRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.11
    • Tin PlavotićCBxG 0.00 · xT -0.03
    Górnik ZabrzeGórnik Zabrze
    Form WWLWW
    League ranking xG #6xGA #4xT #12xP/match #2Points #2
    Key players
    • Erik JanžaLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.26
    • Maksym KhlanLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.12
    • Kacper UrbanskiCAMxG 0.54 · xT 0.05

    Match prediction: Motor LublinGórnik Zabrze

    Predicted score matrix

    Górnik Zabrze
    Motor Lublin
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.1%
    0–18.6%
    0–27.0%
    0–33.6%
    0–4+2.0%
    1
    1–07.1%
    1–112.0%
    1–29.1%
    1–34.7%
    1–4+2.6%
    2
    2–04.8%
    2–17.5%
    2–25.9%
    2–33.1%
    2–4+1.7%
    3
    3–02.1%
    3–13.3%
    3–22.5%
    3–31.3%
    3–4+0.7%
    4+
    4+–00.9%
    4+–11.4%
    4+–21.1%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.0-19%
    4. 4.2-18%
    5. 5.1-07%
    Expected goals
    1,301,56
    Both teams to score
    58%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,546%
    Over 2,554%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Górnik Zabrze to win48%
    • Over 1.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    34%

    Fair odds

    2.90

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Górnik Zabrze to win48%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Sondre Liseth to score19%

    Combined probability

    Fair odds

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score58%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Christopher Serge Simon to score25%
    • Rafał Janicki to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    Fair odds

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Motor Lublin 2Draw 1Górnik Zabrze 1
    Goals: 24 (⌀ 1,5)

    Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Gornik Zabrze have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Motor Lublin
    Górnik Zabrze
    When goals are scored and conceded 2026
    Motor Lublin (813)
    Górnik Zabrze (127)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Motor Lublin
    Bartosz Bereszyński: 245 passningar, xT 0.86BereszyńskiFilip Luberecki: 176 passningar, xT 0.39LubereckiTin Plavotić: 137 passningar, xT -0.09PlavotićMarek Bartos: 118 passningar, xT 0.12BartosChristopher Simon: 97 passningar, xT 0.41SimonYacine Bourhane: 96 passningar, xT 0.07BourhaneIvo Rodrigues: 95 passningar, xT 0.28RodriguesMbaye Ndiaye: 86 passningar, xT 0.65NdiayeThomas Santos Christensen: 79 passningar, xT 0.3ChristensenMateusz Jacek Łęgowski: 76 passningar, xT 0.1ŁęgowskiFábio Ronaldo da Costa Conceição: 71 passningar, xT 0.74Conceição
    Górnik Zabrze
    Kacper Urbanski: 206 passningar, xT 0.03UrbanskiMichal Sáček: 195 passningar, xT 0.51SáčekRafał Janicki: 194 passningar, xT 0.54JanickiJosé Manuel Sánchez Guillén: 131 passningar, xT 0.34GuillénErik Janža: 122 passningar, xT 0.68JanžaMaksym Khlan: 101 passningar, xT 0.35KhlanPaulo Guilherme Gonçalves Bernardo: 84 passningar, xT -0.04BernardoPeter Federico González Carmona: 83 passningar, xT 0.15CarmonaPhilipp Schulze: 78 passningar, xT 0.13SchulzeOndřej Zmrzlý: 65 passningar, xT 0.44ZmrzlýLukáš Sadílek: 62 passningar, xT 0.06Sadílek
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Motor Lublin
    Bartosz Bereszyński: 245 passningar, xT 0.86BereszyńskiFilip Luberecki: 176 passningar, xT 0.39LubereckiTin Plavotić: 137 passningar, xT -0.09PlavotićMarek Bartos: 118 passningar, xT 0.12BartosChristopher Simon: 97 passningar, xT 0.41SimonYacine Bourhane: 96 passningar, xT 0.07BourhaneIvo Rodrigues: 95 passningar, xT 0.28RodriguesMbaye Ndiaye: 86 passningar, xT 0.65NdiayeThomas Santos Christensen: 79 passningar, xT 0.3ChristensenMateusz Jacek Łęgowski: 76 passningar, xT 0.1ŁęgowskiFábio Ronaldo da Costa Conceição: 71 passningar, xT 0.74Conceição
    Górnik Zabrze
    Kacper Urbanski: 206 passningar, xT 0.03UrbanskiMichal Sáček: 195 passningar, xT 0.51SáčekRafał Janicki: 194 passningar, xT 0.54JanickiJosé Manuel Sánchez Guillén: 131 passningar, xT 0.34GuillénErik Janža: 122 passningar, xT 0.68JanžaMaksym Khlan: 101 passningar, xT 0.35KhlanPaulo Guilherme Gonçalves Bernardo: 84 passningar, xT -0.04BernardoPeter Federico González Carmona: 83 passningar, xT 0.15CarmonaPhilipp Schulze: 78 passningar, xT 0.13SchulzeOndřej Zmrzlý: 65 passningar, xT 0.44ZmrzlýLukáš Sadílek: 62 passningar, xT 0.06Sadílek

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceMotor LublinGórnik Zabrze
    Points515
    xPoints8.69.6
    xG per match1.51.7
    xGA per match1.91.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.350.18
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.280.23
    Playing styleMotor LublinGórnik Zabrze
    Build-up efficiency0.30.32
    Field tilt0.470.53
    xT per match1.21.1
    xTA per match0.991.2
    Won balls, offensive half2828
    Pressing intensity0.230.24
    Pressing efficiency0.260.32
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.250.26
    Entries into the box per match1116
    Entries into the box against1115
    Pass completion %0.760.75
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.7
    Passes per match322335
    Passes against per match395347
    Switches of play per match22.220.8
    Long balls per match2826
    Set piecesMotor LublinGórnik Zabrze
    xG from free kicks0.050.18
    Corners per match4.36.2
    Corners against per match2.73.8
    xG per corner0.010.04
    xGA per corner against0.110.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.170.49
    First touch, defensive corners %0.470.65
    OtherMotor LublinGórnik Zabrze
    Throw-in control0.750.67
    The goalkeepersMihai Maximilian Popa (Motor Lublin)Philipp Schulze (Górnik Zabrze)
    Saves1017
    Save %56%71%
    xG prevented36%31%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Motor Lublin vs Górnik Zabrze according to our model?

    The model gives Górnik Zabrze a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Motor Lublin 28%, draw 24%, Górnik Zabrze 48%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.