Motor Lublin vs Piast Gliwice: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

Ekstraklasa29 August 202618°4,0 mm19 km/h

Läs på svenska

Motor LublinCounter-attacks & crosses

0–2

Piast GliwiceBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Motor Lublin (40%)Best value by the model: 2 · Piast Gliwice @ 3.08 (+7 %)

1 · Motor Lublin 40%X 25%35% Piast Gliwice · 2

40%

25%

35%

Analysis: Motor Lublin – Piast Gliwice

Sofia Andersson · 27 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Motor Lublin holds a slight edge in recent outings against Piast Gliwice, claiming two wins and a draw from their last four encounters. However, the sample size is small, making these results less influential compared to the current form and expected goals statistics. Both sides are tightly matched in model probabilities, with the hosts given a 40% chance of victory against the visitors' 35%, and the 25% probability of a draw reflects the closely contested nature of their matchup.

Lublin's style, built on counter-attacks and crosses, has served them well enough to earn more points and expected points this season compared to their counterparts. Their expected goals (xG) of 1.42 per game slightly edges out Piast's 1.41, while defensively, they allow marginally fewer expected goals against (xGA). This indicates a minor advantage for the hosts, suggesting they might capitalize on their counter-attacking strategy against Piast's more balanced and physical play.

The model points to a 1-1 draw as the most probable scoreline at 12%, with both 2-1 outcomes (either side winning) trailing closely behind at 8% each. The over 2.5 goals probability stands at 54%, slightly favoring a more open match, though the expected rain could suppress scoring chances. The 58% likelihood of both teams finding the net aligns with their offensive and defensive metrics.

Betting angles reveal an opportunity here: Bet365 offers Motor Lublin at odds longer than their 40% model-implied probability. With a statistical lean towards the hosts, backing Lublin could yield value. But with rain a factor, caution is advised on the over 2.5 goals market despite its favorable odds.

Motor Lublin

Form DLLWD

League ranking xG #10xGA #13xT #4xP/match #11Points #13

Key players

Karol CzubakFxG 0.54 · xT 0.05
Christopher SimonRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.14
Bartosz BereszyńskiCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.23

Piast Gliwice

Form LWLLD

League ranking xG #18xGA #17xT #14xP/match #18Points #14

Key players

Leandro SancaFxG 0.28 · xT 0.18
Igor DrapinskiCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.06
Hugo Claudio Vallejo AvilésLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.02

Final score

0 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Motor Lublin 40% · Draw 25% · Piast Gliwice 35%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Piast GliwiceBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,87fair 9,53-17 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Motor LublinBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,28fair 9,39-33 %

Miss

Match prediction: Motor Lublin – Piast Gliwice

Predicted score matrix

Piast Gliwice →

Motor Lublin →

0–06.3%

0–18.0%

0–25.9%

0–32.8%

0–4+1.3%

1–08.1%

1–112.2%

1–28.3%

1–33.9%

1–4+1.9%

2–06.0%

2–18.4%

2–25.9%

2–32.8%

2–4+1.3%

3–02.8%

3–14.0%

3–22.8%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.6%

4+–01.4%

4+–11.9%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-18%
3.1-28%
4.1-08%
5.0-18%

Expected goals

1,42–1,41

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

@2.21EV+2%

Over 2,554%

@1.69

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Motor Lublin or draw (1X)63%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Motor Lublin or draw (1X)63%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Karol Czubak to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Karol Czubak to score27%
Oskar Leśniak to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Piast Gliwice35% probability@3.08PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
Under 2.546% probability@2.21PinnacleEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Motor Lublin	X	2 · Piast Gliwice
Betsafe	2.25	3.40	2.85
Betsson	2.25	3.40	2.85
Nordicbet	2.25	3.40	2.85
Pinnacle	2.26	3.63	EV+ 7% 3.08

Odds updated 29 Aug, 10:25

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Motor Lublin win since 23 August — the odds have shortened from 2.40 to 2.26 (−6%).

1-6 %

43 %38 %

2.40 → 2.26

X+5 %

29 %24 %

3.47 → 3.63

2+9 %

35 %30 %

2.82 → 3.08

Over 2,5-1 %

58 %53 %

1.71 → 1.69

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Motor Lublin 2Draw 1Piast Gliwice 1

Goals: 6–7 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Motor Lublin

Piast Gliwice

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Motor Lublin (6–8)

Piast Gliwice (8–13)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Motor Lublin

Piast Gliwice

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Motor Lublin

Piast Gliwice

The teams in numbers

Performance	Motor Lublin	Piast Gliwice
Points	5	4
xPoints	6.5	4.5
xG per match	1.6	1.1
xGA per match	1.9	2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.36	0.15
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.26	0.34

Playing style	Motor Lublin	Piast Gliwice
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.3
Field tilt	0.47	0.52
xT per match	1.3	0.94
xTA per match	1.2	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	28	22
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.3
Entries into the box per match	12	12
Entries into the box against	13	12
Pass completion %	0.76	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.72
Passes per match	325	377
Passes against per match	389	291
Switches of play per match	22	22.3
Long balls per match	27	23

Set pieces	Motor Lublin	Piast Gliwice
xG from free kicks	0.06	0
Corners per match	3.8	5.7
Corners against per match	2.4	5.7
xG per corner	0.01	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.16	0.31
First touch, defensive corners %	0.33	0.66

Other	Motor Lublin	Piast Gliwice
Throw-in control	0.72	0.74

The goalkeepers	Mihai Maximilian Popa (Motor Lublin)	Domen Gril (Piast Gliwice)
Saves	10	18
Save %	56%	58%
xG prevented	36%	52%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Motor Lublin

Fixtures, form & tips

Piast Gliwice

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Motor Lublin vs Piast Gliwice according to our model?

The model gives Motor Lublin a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Motor Lublin 40%, draw 25%, Piast Gliwice 35%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.