Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

Ekstraklasa22 August 202620°8,7 mm18 km/h

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Piast Gliwice

Legia Warszawa

The model's lean: 2 · Legia Warszawa (41%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.36 (+0 %)

1 · Piast Gliwice 29%X 30%41% Legia Warszawa · 2

29%

30%

41%

Match prediction: Piast Gliwice – Legia Warszawa

Predicted score matrix

Legia Warszawa →

Piast Gliwice →

0–07.8%

0–110.6%

0–28.1%

0–34.0%

0–4+2.0%

1–08.0%

1–112.7%

1–29.1%

1–34.5%

1–4+2.3%

2–04.7%

2–16.9%

2–25.1%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.3%

3–01.8%

3–12.6%

3–21.9%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.6%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-29%
4.0-28%
5.1-08%

Expected goals

1,12–1,47

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

225%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,552%

@1.90

Over 2,548%

@1.80

Ready-made bet suggestions

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01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Legia Warszawa or draw (X2)71%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Double chance Legia Warszawa or draw (X2)71%
Under 2.5 goals52%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals48%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.574% probability@1.36BetsafeEV+0%
Under 3.574% probability@1.36BetssonEV+0%
Under 3.574% probability@1.36NordicbetEV+0%

Bookmaker	1 · Piast Gliwice	X	2 · Legia Warszawa
Betsafe	3.30	3.25	2.05
Betsson	3.30	3.25	2.05
Nordicbet	3.30	3.25	2.05

Odds updated 17 Aug, 18:36

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa according to our model?

The model gives Legia Warszawa a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Piast Gliwice 29%, draw 30%, Legia Warszawa 41%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.