Pogoń Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Ekstraklasa12 September 202616°6,0 mm13 km/h

Pogoń SzczecinLow block & direct

Wieczysta KrakówPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Pogoń Szczecin (47%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 4.80 (+6 %)

Limited data — The model has few previous matches with these teams in this league — the forecast therefore rests on thinner data than usual.

1 · Pogoń Szczecin 47%X 26%27% Wieczysta Kraków · 2

47%

26%

27%

Analysis: Pogoń Szczecin – Wieczysta Kraków

Marcus Johansson · 11 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Pogoń Szczecin enters this matchup with a concrete edge both in form and home performance. They've remained unbeaten in their last five league outings and boast a solid home win rate of 61% across their 38 matches. Meanwhile, Wieczysta Kraków, with only four points compared to Pogoń's nine, face a challenging task away from home.

Tactically, the hosts prefer a low defensive line coupled with direct play, which could exploit Wieczysta's high pressing and possession-oriented style. This clash of approaches will be intriguing, especially considering Pogoń's ability to absorb pressure and hit on the counter. The expected goals metrics also slightly favor Pogoń, with an xG of 1.89 compared to Wieczysta’s 1.32, indicating that the hosts might create more quality chances.

The model's probabilities point towards a home victory with a lean at 47%. However, the most likely scorelines, such as 1-1 and 2-1, suggest a closely contested affair. The rainy conditions, with 3.0 mm expected, might dampen attacking fluency but are already factored into the 62% probability for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

For bettors, the key angle lies in the over 2.5 goals market, with a thin yet present 1% edge at odds of 1.62 across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. Given the attacking profiles and the likelihood of defensive lapses, this could be the sharper play. Expect a tight contest, but with goals flowing, a 2-1 victory for Pogoń Szczecin is on the cards.

Pogoń Szczecin

Form WWDDD

League ranking xG #8xGA #10xT #14xP/match #5Points #9

Key players

Paul MukairuFxG 0.37 · xT 0.01
Darko ChurlinovFxG 0.53 · xT 0.00
Fredrik UlvestadCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.18

Wieczysta Kraków

Form LWLLD

League ranking xG #10xGA #12xT #8xP/match #16Points #17

Key players

Tobias ChristensenFxG 0.32 · xT 0.13
Karol FilaRWBxG 0.23 · xT 0.24
Lisandro Pedro Varela SemedoFxG 0.25 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Pogoń Szczecin – Wieczysta Kraków

Predicted score matrix

Wieczysta Kraków →

Pogoń Szczecin →

0–04.3%

0–15.0%

0–23.5%

0–31.5%

0–4+0.7%

1–07.3%

1–110.4%

1–26.6%

1–32.9%

1–4+1.3%

2–07.2%

2–19.5%

2–26.3%

2–32.8%

2–4+1.2%

3–04.5%

3–16.0%

3–24.0%

3–31.7%

3–4+0.8%

4+–03.3%

4+–14.4%

4+–22.9%

4+–31.3%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-110%
3.1-07%
4.2-07%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,89–1,32

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+22%

Under 2,538%

@2.25

Over 2,562%

@1.62EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Pogoń Szczecin to win47%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Pogoń Szczecin to win47%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Paul Omo Mukairu to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score62%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Tobias Christensen to score23%
Mikkel Maigaard Jakobsen to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 4.522% probability@4.80Paddy PowerEV+6%reference odds
Over 3.540% probability@2.55Paddy PowerEV+2%reference odds
Over 2.562% probability@1.62BetsafeEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Pogoń Szczecin	X	2 · Wieczysta Kraków
Betsafe	2.00	3.40	3.35
Betsson	2.00	3.40	3.35
Nordicbet	2.00	3.40	3.35
Paddy Power	1.85	3.75	3.40
Pinnacle	2.07	3.69	3.32

Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:11

Odds movement

10 %

48 %43 %

2.08 → 2.07

X+3 %

28 %23 %

3.59 → 3.69

20 %

31 %26 %

3.33 → 3.32

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Pogon Szczecin are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
Pogon Szczecin win 61% of their home matches all-time (38 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Pogoń Szczecin

Wieczysta Kraków

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Pogoń Szczecin (8–5)

Wieczysta Kraków (9–13)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Pogoń Szczecin

Wieczysta Kraków

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Pogoń Szczecin

Wieczysta Kraków

The teams in numbers

Performance	Pogoń Szczecin	Wieczysta Kraków
Points	9	4
xPoints	9.4	7.1
xG per match	1.6	1.6
xGA per match	1.6	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.4	0.28
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.17	0.63

Playing style	Pogoń Szczecin	Wieczysta Kraków
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.43	0.65
xT per match	0.96	1.2
xTA per match	1.2	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	23	24
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.27
Entries into the box per match	11	17
Entries into the box against	15	16
Pass completion %	0.74	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.74
Passes per match	299	442
Passes against per match	411	317
Switches of play per match	26.3	29.3
Long balls per match	35	33

Set pieces	Pogoń Szczecin	Wieczysta Kraków
xG from free kicks	0.17	0
Corners per match	3.7	5
Corners against per match	4.2	5.9
xG per corner	0.06	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.27	0.47
First touch, defensive corners %	0.56	0.46

Other	Pogoń Szczecin	Wieczysta Kraków
Throw-in control	0.72	0.76

The goalkeepers	Valentin Cojocaru (Pogoń Szczecin)	Antoni Mikulko (Wieczysta Kraków)
Saves	27	14
Save %	87%	58%
xG prevented	61%	56%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Pogoń Szczecin

Fixtures, form & tips

Wieczysta Kraków

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Pogoń Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków according to our model?

The model gives Pogoń Szczecin a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Pogoń Szczecin 47%, draw 26%, Wieczysta Kraków 27%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.