Radomiak Radom vs KS Cracovia: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

Ekstraklasa29 August 202619°3,2 mm19 km/h

Läs på svenska

Radomiak RadomCounter-attacks & crosses

2–1

KS CracoviaCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · KS Cracovia (42%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 7.50 (+24 %)

1 · Radomiak Radom 32%X 26%42% KS Cracovia · 2

32%

26%

42%

Analysis: Radomiak Radom – KS Cracovia

Anna Karlsson · 27 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT: The clash between Radomiak Radom and KS Cracovia is set to unfold with an intriguing tactical symmetry. Both teams favor counter-attacking play, relying heavily on crosses. This shared style hints at a game that could see quick transitions and aerial duels. Despite Radomiak's impressive head-to-head record since 2023, having never lost to Cracovia in their four encounters, the visitors come in as the side currently in better form, both statistically and in the standings.

Cracovia's model probability to win stands at 42%, suggesting a slight edge over Radomiak's 32%. With expected goals (xG) of 1.53 to Radomiak's 1.34, Cracovia's attacking potential is evident. Importantly, the visitors also boast a more solid defensive unit, allowing only 1.2 xGA per match compared to Radomiak's concerning 2.0. This defensive frailty could be where Cracovia finds the breakthrough, especially given Radomiak's counter-attacking setup which might leave gaps in their already vulnerable backline.

The most likely scorelines reflect a tight contest, with 1-1 at 12% and 1-2 at 9%. Yet, the over 2.5 goals probability of 55% speaks to the potential for more scoring, albeit tempered by the rain forecast, a factor known to dampen offensive output. Meanwhile, both teams to score comes in at a solid 58%, aligning with the expected back-and-forth nature of the game.

While Radomiak's unbeaten streak in this matchup carries weight, the numbers suggest that Cracovia might finally tip the scales in their favor. A 2-1 victory for the visitors is a plausible outcome, leaning towards an over 2.5 goals scenario.

Radomiak Radom

Form WLLLD

League ranking xG #15xGA #18xT #17xP/match #15Points #16

Key players

Jan GrzesikRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.14
Rafal WolskiRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.10
Christos DonisCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.01

KS Cracovia

Form DLDWW

League ranking xG #5xGA #3xT #6xP/match #5Points #3

Key players

Ajdin HasicRWxG 0.44 · xT 0.35
Dijon KameriCMxG 0.21 · xT 0.02
Beno SelanFxG 0.05 · xT -0.02

Final score

2 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Radomiak Radom 32% · Draw 26% · KS Cracovia 42%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Radomiak RadomBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,41fair 10,43-10 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Cracovia KrakowBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,18fair 8,05-11 %

Miss

Match prediction: Radomiak Radom – KS Cracovia

Predicted score matrix

KS Cracovia →

Radomiak Radom →

0–06.0%

0–18.3%

0–26.6%

0–33.4%

0–4+1.8%

1–07.2%

1–111.9%

1–28.9%

1–34.5%

1–4+2.4%

2–05.1%

2–17.8%

2–26.0%

2–33.1%

2–4+1.6%

3–02.3%

3–13.5%

3–22.7%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.7%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.6%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-18%
4.2-18%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

1,34–1,53

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,545%

@1.92

Over 2,555%

@1.95EV+7%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance KS Cracovia or draw (X2)67%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance KS Cracovia or draw (X2)67%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Kahveh Zahiroleslam to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Rafał Wolski to score26%
Amir Fouad Aboud Al Ammari to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 4.516% probability@7.50Paddy PowerEV+24%reference odds
Over 3.533% probability@3.60Paddy PowerEV+17%reference odds
2 · KS Cracovia42% probability@2.63Paddy PowerEV+10%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Radomiak Radom	X	2 · KS Cracovia
Betsafe	2.95	3.25	2.25
Betsson	2.95	3.25	2.25
Nordicbet	2.95	3.25	2.25
Paddy Power	2.40	3.25	EV+ 10% 2.63
Pinnacle	3.01	3.26	EV+ 4% 2.48

Odds updated 29 Aug, 10:25

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards the draw since 23 August — the odds have shortened from 3.72 to 3.26 (−12%).

1+2 %

34 %29 %

2.94 → 3.01

X-12 %

30 %25 %

3.72 → 3.26

2+12 %

43 %38 %

2.22 → 2.48

Over 2,5+5 %

53 %48 %

1.85 → 1.93

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Radomiak Radom 3Draw 1KS Cracovia 0

Goals: 7–2 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Radomiak Radom

KS Cracovia

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Radomiak Radom (4–12)

KS Cracovia (5–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Radomiak Radom

KS Cracovia

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Radomiak Radom

KS Cracovia

The teams in numbers

Performance	Radomiak Radom	KS Cracovia
Points	4	8
xPoints	5.5	8.2
xG per match	1.2	1.8
xGA per match	2	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.23	0.23
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.45	0.22

Playing style	Radomiak Radom	KS Cracovia
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.31
Field tilt	0.35	0.48
xT per match	0.8	1.3
xTA per match	1.7	0.94
Won balls, offensive half	22	25
Pressing intensity	0.27	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.25
Entries into the box per match	12	15
Entries into the box against	23	14
Pass completion %	0.77	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.68
Passes per match	348	324
Passes against per match	379	338
Switches of play per match	16.9	17.7
Long balls per match	20	22

Set pieces	Radomiak Radom	KS Cracovia
xG from free kicks	0	0.03
Corners per match	4.1	6.7
Corners against per match	4.1	6.3
xG per corner	0.02	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.69

Other	Radomiak Radom	KS Cracovia
Throw-in control	0.82	0.76

The goalkeepers	Filip Majchrowicz (Radomiak Radom)	Sebastian Madejski (KS Cracovia)
Saves	10	15
Save %	63%	75%
xG prevented	34%	36%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Radomiak Radom

Fixtures, form & tips

KS Cracovia

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Radomiak Radom vs KS Cracovia according to our model?

The model gives KS Cracovia a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Radomiak Radom 32%, draw 26%, KS Cracovia 42%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.