Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Ekstraklasa12 September 202615°11,0 mm9 km/h

Läs på svenska

Radomiak RadomCounter-attacks & crosses

Piast GliwiceBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Radomiak Radom (41%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 1.67 (+5 %)

1 · Radomiak Radom 41%X 26%33% Piast Gliwice · 2

41%

26%

33%

Analysis: Radomiak Radom – Piast Gliwice

Erik Lindberg · 11 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

The 63% probability for over 2.5 goals stands out in the matchup between Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice, hinting at a game that might defy the expected defensive postures. While the model slightly favors the hosts with a 41% chance of victory, the 33% for the visitors suggests a tightly contested affair. The expected goals, with Radomiak at 1.51 and Piast at 1.75, indicate potential scoring opportunities on both ends.

Piast Gliwice's physical style could disrupt Radomiak Radom's counter-attacking game, but both teams are likely to find the net, supported by a 65% chance for both teams to score. The head-to-head record is limited to four matches, with Radomiak Radom holding 1 win, 2 draws, and 1 loss, giving us little definitive insight. Instead, Radomiak's slight edge in expected points (9.0 vs. Piast’s 7.5) and higher xG per match (1.5 vs. 1.2) hint at a mild advantage.

Given the projected weather conditions—14.8°C with 11.0 mm of rain—the over 2.5 goals line could offer value despite the dampening effect rain might have on goal frequency. However, the model's lean toward Radomiak adds complexity, suggesting a possible scoreline of 2-1 in their favor.

Radomiak Radom

Form LLDWD

League ranking xG #14xGA #17xT #17xP/match #12Points #12

Key players

Jan GrzesikRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.16
Rafal WolskiRWxG 0.33 · xT 0.11
Christos DonisCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.01

Piast Gliwice

Form LLDWW

League ranking xG #17xGA #13xT #16xP/match #17Points #6

Key players

Igor DrapinskiCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.06
Leandro SancaLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.11
Hugo Claudio Vallejo AvilésLWxG 0.16 · xT 0.01

Match prediction: Radomiak Radom – Piast Gliwice

Predicted score matrix

Piast Gliwice →

Radomiak Radom →

0–04.1%

0–16.4%

0–25.9%

0–33.4%

0–4+2.2%

1–05.5%

1–110.4%

1–28.9%

1–35.2%

1–4+3.4%

2–04.4%

2–17.6%

2–26.7%

2–33.9%

2–4+2.6%

3–02.2%

3–13.8%

3–23.4%

3–32.0%

3–4+1.3%

4+–01.2%

4+–12.0%

4+–21.8%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.7%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-29%
3.2-18%
4.2-27%
5.0-16%

Expected goals

1,51–1,75

Both teams to score

65%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,537%

@2.19

Over 2,563%

@1.67EV+5%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Radomiak Radom or draw (1X)57%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Radomiak Radom or draw (1X)57%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Rafał Wolski to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score65%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Rafał Wolski to score29%
Jakub Lewicki to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 2.563% probability@1.67PinnacleEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Radomiak Radom	X	2 · Piast Gliwice
Pinnacle	2.37	3.51	2.84

Odds updated 9 Sept, 05:12

Odds movement

1+1 %

43 %38 %

2.35 → 2.37

X0 %

29 %24 %

3.50 → 3.51

2-1 %

36 %31 %

2.88 → 2.84

Over 2,50 %

59 %54 %

1.67 → 1.67

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 09/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Radomiak Radom 1Draw 2Piast Gliwice 1

Goals: 3–4 (⌀ 1,8)

Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Radomiak Radom

Piast Gliwice

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Radomiak Radom (6–13)

Piast Gliwice (13–13)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Radomiak Radom

Piast Gliwice

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Radomiak Radom

Piast Gliwice

The teams in numbers

Performance	Radomiak Radom	Piast Gliwice
Points	8	10
xPoints	9	7.5
xG per match	1.5	1.2
xGA per match	2	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.33	0.14
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.5	0.31

Playing style	Radomiak Radom	Piast Gliwice
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.3
Field tilt	0.37	0.5
xT per match	0.84	0.87
xTA per match	1.6	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	23	24
Pressing intensity	0.26	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.29
Entries into the box per match	12	12
Entries into the box against	21	13
Pass completion %	0.76	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.73
Passes per match	329	401
Passes against per match	362	303
Switches of play per match	17	22.9
Long balls per match	21	23

Set pieces	Radomiak Radom	Piast Gliwice
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.04
Corners per match	5.2	5.3
Corners against per match	5.4	6.2
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.35
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.63

Other	Radomiak Radom	Piast Gliwice
Throw-in control	0.83	0.75

The goalkeepers	Filip Majchrowicz (Radomiak Radom)	Domen Gril (Piast Gliwice)
Saves	17	23
Save %	71%	64%
xG prevented	45%	57%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Radomiak Radom

Fixtures, form & tips

Piast Gliwice

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice according to our model?

The model gives Radomiak Radom a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Radomiak Radom 41%, draw 26%, Piast Gliwice 33%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.