Ekstraklasa17°20 km/h

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    Radomiak RadomRadomiak RadomCounter-attacks & crosses
    0–0
    Zagłębie LubinZagłębie LubinLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Radomiak Radom (45%)

    Radomiak Radom – Zagłębie Lubin · Ekstraklasa

    1 · Radomiak Radom 45%X 26%29% Zagłębie Lubin · 2

    Analysis: Radomiak Radom – Zagłębie Lubin

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    Three straight defeats might have Radomiak Radom second-guessing themselves as they prepare to welcome Zagłębie Lubin. The hosts are struggling to shake off a losing streak, yet the underlying numbers suggest they might be undervalued here. They generate more expected goals per match than their visitors, outpacing them 1.3 to 1.1 xG. This could tilt the scale slightly in their favor despite recent results.

    Zagłębie Lubin, with their penchant for a low defensive block and direct play, have found a measure of success against Radomiak in the past year, boasting three wins in their last four encounters. However, with the sample size being small, it's more prudent to lean on current form and expected goals to gauge this matchup's true dynamic. The visitors may have more points in the bag, but Radomiak's xPoints edge reflects a potential for turning the tide.

    The clash of styles here could be telling. Radomiak's preference for counterattacks and crosses might just exploit Zagłębie’s conservative approach. Yet, their defensive fragility is a concern, as evidenced by their 2.2 xGA per match. It's a setup ripe for both teams finding the net, and the model suggests a slight edge towards Radomiak, with a 45% chance of victory.

    For the value seekers, Radomiak's odds of 2.38 at Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet stand out. These odds present a 7% edge according to the model's evaluation. The numbers lean towards a tight affair, potentially finishing 1-1 or 1-0, with a modest nod towards an over 2.5 goals outcome. However, the real play is on the home side's value, setting the stage for Radomiak to potentially bounce back on favorable terms.

    Radomiak RadomRadomiak Radom
    Form LWLLL
    League ranking xG #13xGA #17xT #15xP/match #14Points #17
    Key players
    • Jan GrzesikRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.15
    • Rafal WolskiCAMxG 0.26 · xT 0.07
    • Ibrahima CamaraCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.02
    Zagłębie LubinZagłębie Lubin
    Form LLWLW
    League ranking xG #18xGA #4xT #16xP/match #7Points #5
    Key players
    • Marcel RegulaRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.06
    • Filip KocabaFxG 0.23 · xT 0.03
    • Mateusz GrzybekRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.27
    Final score
    0 – 0
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Radomiak Radom 45% · Draw 26% · Zagłębie Lubin 29%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Radomiak RadomBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,62fair 7,81-2 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Zaglebie LubinBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 9,11fair 15,13-40 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Radomiak Radom – Zagłębie Lubin

    Predicted score matrix

    Zagłębie Lubin →
    Radomiak Radom →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.9%
    0–17.1%
    0–24.2%
    0–31.6%
    0–4+0.6%
    1
    1–010.1%
    1–112.2%
    1–26.7%
    1–32.5%
    1–4+0.9%
    2
    2–08.3%
    2–19.4%
    2–25.3%
    2–32.0%
    2–4+0.7%
    3
    3–04.4%
    3–15.0%
    3–22.8%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–02.5%
    4+–12.8%
    4+–21.6%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.2-08%
    5. 5.0-17%
    Expected goals
    1,59–1,14
    Both teams to score
    54%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,549%
    @1.94
    Over 2,551%
    @1.91

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Radomiak Radom to win45%
    • Over 1.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    37%

    Fair odds

    2.68

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Radomiak Radom to win45%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%
    • Maurides Roque Junior to score24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score54%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%
    • Maurides Roque Junior to score24%
    • Filip Kocaba to be booked25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Radomiak Radom45% probability@2.47PinnacleEV+11%reference odds
    • 1 · Radomiak Radom45% probability@2.38BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
    • 1 · Radomiak Radom45% probability@2.38BetssonEV+7%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Radomiak RadomX2 · Zagłębie Lubin
    Betsafe
    EV+ 7%
    2.38    		3.202.80
    Betsson
    EV+ 7%
    2.38    		3.202.80
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 7%
    2.38    		3.202.80
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 11%
    2.47    		3.342.96

    Odds updated 23 Aug, 05:10

    Odds movement

    1+4 %
    42 %37 %

    2.37 → 2.47

    X+1 %
    31 %26 %

    3.31 → 3.34

    2-1 %
    35 %30 %

    2.99 → 2.96

    Over 2,5+2 %
    53 %48 %

    1.88 → 1.91

    Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 20/08/2026 → 23/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Radomiak Radom 1Draw 0Zagłębie Lubin 3
    Goals: 3–4 (⌀ 1,8)

    Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Radomiak Radom have lost 3 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Radomiak Radom
    Zagłębie Lubin
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Radomiak Radom (4–12)
    Zagłębie Lubin (5–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Radomiak Radom
    Kryspin Szcześniak: 168 passningar, xT 0.16SzcześniakAdrián Diéguez Grande: 158 passningar, xT 0.09GrandeZie Ouattara: 150 passningar, xT 0.17OuattaraIbrahima Camara: 147 passningar, xT 0.03CamaraConrado Buchanelli Holz: 128 passningar, xT 0.1HolzRafal Wolski: 104 passningar, xT 0.22WolskiLucas Lima Linhares: 96 passningar, xT 0.98LinharesJan Grzesik: 77 passningar, xT 0.44GrzesikChristos Donis: 63 passningar, xT -0.02DonisFilip Majchrowicz: 59 passningar, xT 0MajchrowiczFilip Koperski: 41 passningar, xT 0.04Koperski
    Zagłębie Lubin
    Michal Nalepa: 117 passningar, xT 0.52NalepaAleks Lawniczak: 78 passningar, xT 0.12LawniczakJosip Corluka: 67 passningar, xT 0.18CorlukaFilip Kocaba: 62 passningar, xT 0.07KocabaSebastian Kerk: 56 passningar, xT 0.18KerkDamian Dabrowski: 51 passningar, xT 0.05DabrowskiZlatan Alomerović: 48 passningar, xT 0.06AlomerovićIgor Orlikowski: 39 passningar, xT 0.09OrlikowskiDamian Michalski: 39 passningar, xT -0.11MichalskiMateusz Grzybek: 34 passningar, xT 0.48GrzybekJasmin Buric: 29 passningar, xT 0.03Buric
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Radomiak Radom
    Kryspin Szcześniak: 168 passningar, xT 0.16SzcześniakAdrián Diéguez Grande: 158 passningar, xT 0.09GrandeZie Ouattara: 150 passningar, xT 0.17OuattaraIbrahima Camara: 147 passningar, xT 0.03CamaraConrado Buchanelli Holz: 128 passningar, xT 0.1HolzRafal Wolski: 104 passningar, xT 0.22WolskiLucas Lima Linhares: 96 passningar, xT 0.98LinharesJan Grzesik: 77 passningar, xT 0.44GrzesikChristos Donis: 63 passningar, xT -0.02DonisFilip Majchrowicz: 59 passningar, xT 0MajchrowiczFilip Koperski: 41 passningar, xT 0.04Koperski
    Zagłębie Lubin
    Michal Nalepa: 117 passningar, xT 0.52NalepaAleks Lawniczak: 78 passningar, xT 0.12LawniczakJosip Corluka: 67 passningar, xT 0.18CorlukaFilip Kocaba: 62 passningar, xT 0.07KocabaSebastian Kerk: 56 passningar, xT 0.18KerkDamian Dabrowski: 51 passningar, xT 0.05DabrowskiZlatan Alomerović: 48 passningar, xT 0.06AlomerovićIgor Orlikowski: 39 passningar, xT 0.09OrlikowskiDamian Michalski: 39 passningar, xT -0.11MichalskiMateusz Grzybek: 34 passningar, xT 0.48GrzybekJasmin Buric: 29 passningar, xT 0.03Buric

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceRadomiak RadomZagłębie Lubin
    Points36
    xPoints4.54.4
    xG per match1.31.1
    xGA per match2.21.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.280.12
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.530.15
    Playing styleRadomiak RadomZagłębie Lubin
    Build-up efficiency0.290.28
    Field tilt0.290.31
    xT per match0.810.71
    xTA per match1.90.95
    Won balls, offensive half2024
    Pressing intensity0.270.24
    Pressing efficiency0.250.32
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.220.26
    Entries into the box per match1113
    Entries into the box against2414
    Pass completion %0.780.69
    Pass completion % under pressure0.720.63
    Passes per match340237
    Passes against per match416314
    Switches of play per match18.421.4
    Long balls per match1933
    Set piecesRadomiak RadomZagłębie Lubin
    xG from free kicks0.010
    Corners per match2.54.9
    Corners against per match4.66.5
    xG per corner0.010.07
    xGA per corner against0.030.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.40.33
    First touch, defensive corners %0.560.7
    OtherRadomiak RadomZagłębie Lubin
    Throw-in control0.80.83
    The goalkeepersFilip Majchrowicz (Radomiak Radom)Aleks Lawniczak (Zagłębie Lubin)
    Saves85
    Save %57%100%
    xG prevented28%100%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Radomiak Radom
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Zagłębie Lubin
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Radomiak Radom vs Zagłębie Lubin according to our model?

    The model gives Radomiak Radom a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Radomiak Radom 45%, draw 26%, Zagłębie Lubin 29%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Postponed — now 15 September

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.