Ekstraklasa21°13 km/h

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    Raków CzęstochowaRaków CzęstochowaPossession & high press
    2–5
    Jagiellonia BiałystokJagiellonia BiałystokPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Raków Częstochowa (45%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.44 (+1 %)

    Raków Częstochowa – Jagiellonia Białystok · Ekstraklasa

    1 · Raków Częstochowa 45%X 27%28% Jagiellonia Białystok · 2

    Analysis: Raków Częstochowa – Jagiellonia Białystok

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    The expected goals (xG) suggest a tight contest, with Raków holding a slight advantage at 1.51 compared to Jagiellonia's 1.25. Yet, the visitors have shown better defensive statistics, conceding fewer xGA per match at 1.6 compared to Raków's 1.9. The model sees a 52% chance for over 2.5 goals, suggesting a slightly higher likelihood of a high-scoring affair, while both teams to score is slightly more likely at 56%.

    For the shrewd bettor, the under 3.5 market offers a small edge. Odds of 1.44 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet align with the model's 70% probability, providing a modest value opportunity. A dry 1-1 draw or a narrow 1-0 victory for Raków seems the most reasonable expectation.

    Raków Częstochowa's current form is a concern, with three consecutive losses weighing on their shoulders. Despite this, they are marginal favorites against Jagiellonia Białystok, with a model probability of 45% for a home win. The head-to-head record since 2023 is slim, showing a slight edge for Jagiellonia with two wins over Raków's single victory in four matches. However, given the limited sample size, this historical data takes a backseat to current metrics and expected goals.

    Raków CzęstochowaRaków Częstochowa
    Form WWLLL
    League ranking xG #8xGA #16xT #7xP/match #17Points #18
    Key players
    • Patryk MakuchFxG 0.62 · xT 0.16
    • Jerzy NapierajCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.23
    • Jean Carlos SilvaRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.16
    Jagiellonia BiałystokJagiellonia Białystok
    Form DWWWL
    League ranking xG #12xGA #9xT #11xP/match #13Points #9
    Key players
    • Guilherme Manuel Serrão MontóiaLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.29
    • Kajetan SzmytLWxG 0.06 · xT 0.07
    • Norbert WojtuszekRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
    Final score
    2 – 5
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 45% · Draw 27% · Jagiellonia Białystok 28%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Jagiellonia BialystokBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,76fair 12,26-29 %
    Hit
    Matchresultat - Raków CzestochowaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 5,83fair 8,42-31 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Raków Częstochowa – Jagiellonia Białystok

    Predicted score matrix

    Jagiellonia Białystok →
    Raków Częstochowa →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.7%
    0–17.6%
    0–24.9%
    0–32.1%
    0–4+0.8%
    1
    1–09.2%
    1–112.3%
    1–27.5%
    1–33.1%
    1–4+1.3%
    2
    2–07.2%
    2–19.0%
    2–25.6%
    2–32.3%
    2–4+1.0%
    3
    3–03.6%
    3–14.5%
    3–22.8%
    3–31.2%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–01.9%
    4+–12.4%
    4+–21.5%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-09%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.0-18%
    5. 5.1-27%
    Expected goals
    1,51–1,25
    Both teams to score
    56%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,548%
    @2.10EV+1%
    Over 2,552%
    @1.77

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Raków Częstochowa or draw (1X)69%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    53%

    Fair odds

    1.88

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Raków Częstochowa or draw (1X)69%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Jonatan Braut Brunes to score23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score56%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Jonatan Braut Brunes to score23%
    • Bernardo Maria Morais Cardoso Vital to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 3.570% probability@1.44BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
    • Under 3.570% probability@1.44BetssonEV+1%reference odds
    • Under 3.570% probability@1.44NordicbetEV+1%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Raków CzęstochowaX2 · Jagiellonia Białystok
    Betsafe2.103.353.20
    Betsson2.103.353.20
    Nordicbet2.103.353.20
    Pinnacle2.183.673.21

    Odds updated 30 Aug, 05:13

    Odds movement

    1+11 %
    48 %43 %

    1.97 → 2.18

    X-3 %
    28 %23 %

    3.77 → 3.67

    2-7 %
    31 %26 %

    3.46 → 3.21

    Over 2,5+6 %
    58 %53 %

    1.67 → 1.77

    Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Raków Częstochowa 1Draw 1Jagiellonia Białystok 2
    Goals: 5–7 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Rakow Czestochowa have lost 3 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Raków Częstochowa
    Jagiellonia Białystok
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Raków Częstochowa (3–6)
    Jagiellonia Białystok (3–3)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Raków Częstochowa
    Bogdan Racovitan: 157 passningar, xT 0.13RacovitanOskar Repka: 124 passningar, xT 0.16RepkaJerzy Napieraj: 121 passningar, xT 0.43NapierajJean Carlos Silva: 109 passningar, xT 0.41SilvaVladyslav Kochergin: 81 passningar, xT 0.21KocherginDieudonné Gaucho Debohi: 74 passningar, xT 0.1DebohiMahir Emreli: 67 passningar, xT -0.14EmreliErick Ouma Otieno: 60 passningar, xT 0.17OtienoMichael Ameyaw: 56 passningar, xT 0.48AmeyawFran Tudor: 54 passningar, xT 0.16TudorTomasz Pienko: 51 passningar, xT 0.05Pienko
    Jagiellonia Białystok
    Bernardo Vital: 192 passningar, xT 0.36VitalGuilherme Manuel Serrão Montóia: 178 passningar, xT 0.84MontóiaNorbert Wojtuszek: 156 passningar, xT 0.22WojtuszekYuki Kobayashi: 129 passningar, xT 0.1KobayashiTaras Romanczuk: 92 passningar, xT 0.09RomanczukSlawomir Abramowicz: 82 passningar, xT -0.06AbramowiczJesus Imaz: 61 passningar, xT 0.24ImazSergio Lozano: 56 passningar, xT 0.13LozanoKajetan Szmyt: 52 passningar, xT 0.17SzmytAnders Ferslev Klynge: 51 passningar, xT 0.08KlyngeRodrigo Fernandes da Conceição: 36 passningar, xT 0.4Conceição
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Raków Częstochowa
    Bogdan Racovitan: 157 passningar, xT 0.13RacovitanOskar Repka: 124 passningar, xT 0.16RepkaJerzy Napieraj: 121 passningar, xT 0.43NapierajJean Carlos Silva: 109 passningar, xT 0.41SilvaVladyslav Kochergin: 81 passningar, xT 0.21KocherginDieudonné Gaucho Debohi: 74 passningar, xT 0.1DebohiMahir Emreli: 67 passningar, xT -0.14EmreliErick Ouma Otieno: 60 passningar, xT 0.17OtienoMichael Ameyaw: 56 passningar, xT 0.48AmeyawFran Tudor: 54 passningar, xT 0.16TudorTomasz Pienko: 51 passningar, xT 0.05Pienko
    Jagiellonia Białystok
    Bernardo Vital: 192 passningar, xT 0.36VitalGuilherme Manuel Serrão Montóia: 178 passningar, xT 0.84MontóiaNorbert Wojtuszek: 156 passningar, xT 0.22WojtuszekYuki Kobayashi: 129 passningar, xT 0.1KobayashiTaras Romanczuk: 92 passningar, xT 0.09RomanczukSlawomir Abramowicz: 82 passningar, xT -0.06AbramowiczJesus Imaz: 61 passningar, xT 0.24ImazSergio Lozano: 56 passningar, xT 0.13LozanoKajetan Szmyt: 52 passningar, xT 0.17SzmytAnders Ferslev Klynge: 51 passningar, xT 0.08KlyngeRodrigo Fernandes da Conceição: 36 passningar, xT 0.4Conceição

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceRaków CzęstochowaJagiellonia Białystok
    Points06
    xPoints33.5
    xG per match1.61.3
    xGA per match1.91.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.290.06
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.090.5
    Playing styleRaków CzęstochowaJagiellonia Białystok
    Build-up efficiency0.310.29
    Field tilt0.520.55
    xT per match1.21.1
    xTA per match11.1
    Won balls, offensive half2622
    Pressing intensity0.240.24
    Pressing efficiency0.260.33
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.30.23
    Entries into the box per match1214
    Entries into the box against1113
    Pass completion %0.780.79
    Pass completion % under pressure0.750.73
    Passes per match378421
    Passes against per match294280
    Switches of play per match28.827.4
    Long balls per match2834
    Set piecesRaków CzęstochowaJagiellonia Białystok
    xG from free kicks00.01
    Corners per match4.94.4
    Corners against per match4.24.4
    xG per corner0.010.03
    xGA per corner against0.020.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.20.46
    First touch, defensive corners %0.690.46
    OtherRaków CzęstochowaJagiellonia Białystok
    Throw-in control0.650.81
    The goalkeepersKacper Trelowski (Raków Częstochowa)Slawomir Abramowicz (Jagiellonia Białystok)
    Saves97
    Save %69%70%
    xG prevented56%50%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Raków Częstochowa
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Jagiellonia Białystok
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia Białystok according to our model?

    The model gives Raków Częstochowa a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Raków Częstochowa 45%, draw 27%, Jagiellonia Białystok 28%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Postponed — now 15 September

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.