Ekstraklasa15°7 km/h

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    Slask WroclawSlask WroclawLow block & direct
    vs
    Korona KielceKorona KielcePossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Slask Wroclaw (42%)

    Slask Wroclaw – Korona Kielce · Ekstraklasa

    1 · Slask Wroclaw 42%X 28%30% Korona Kielce · 2

    Analysis: Slask Wroclaw – Korona Kielce

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    Slask Wroclaw enter this match with a model-backed 42% chance of taking the win, slightly ahead of Korona Kielce's 30%. Yet, despite the model's lean towards the home side, Korona comes in with better form, unbeaten in their last five league outings. This forms an intriguing backdrop where market mispricing might just offer a rare opportunity.

    In terms of xG, the hosts hold the upper hand with 1.5 per match compared to Korona's 1.2. Likewise, Slask's xGA is slightly better, suggesting a marginal edge in both attack and defence. However, it's Korona's recent run that's hard to ignore, even if the head-to-head record is scant. Just two encounters since 2023 hardly weigh heavily, but they favor Korona with a win and a draw.

    The expected goals for both sides are strikingly close — Slask at 1.28 and Korona at 1.35. This reflects the delicate balance, hinting that a low-scoring draw or a narrow win could be on the cards. With a 49% chance for over 2.5 goals, the market doesn't suggest fireworks, while a 54% probability for both teams scoring adds a layer of uncertainty to the night's potential drama.

    For bettors, there's a compelling angle with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offering Slask to win at odds of 2.62. With the model rating this outcome at a 42% probability, it reveals a 9% edge — a solid value spot. Expect a tight match, most likely edging towards a 1-1 draw, but if you're chasing value, backing the hosts at the given odds might be your best play.

    Slask WroclawSlask Wroclaw
    Form DLDDL
    League ranking xG #13xGA #8xT #3xP/match #9Points #14
    Key players
    • Piotr Samiec-TalarRWxG 0.40 · xT 0.27
    • Luka MarjanacFxG 0.39 · xT 0.20
    • Przemyslaw BanaszakFxG 0.26 · xT 0.14
    Korona KielceKorona Kielce
    Form DWDWD
    League ranking xG #18xGA #9xT #18xP/match #13Points #7
    Key players
    • Mariusz Paweł StępińskiFxG 0.37 · xT 0.01
    • Wiktor DlugoszRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.14
    • Marcel PieczekLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.24

    Match prediction: Slask Wroclaw – Korona Kielce

    Predicted score matrix

    Korona Kielce →
    Slask Wroclaw →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.5%
    0–19.3%
    0–26.6%
    0–33.0%
    0–4+1.3%
    1
    1–08.8%
    1–112.8%
    1–28.4%
    1–33.8%
    1–4+1.7%
    2
    2–05.9%
    2–18.0%
    2–25.4%
    2–32.4%
    2–4+1.1%
    3
    3–02.5%
    3–13.4%
    3–22.3%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–01.1%
    4+–11.4%
    4+–21.0%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.0-19%
    3. 3.1-09%
    4. 4.1-28%
    5. 5.2-18%
    Expected goals
    1,28–1,35
    Both teams to score
    54%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,551%
    @1.99EV+1%
    Over 2,549%
    @1.85

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Slask Wroclaw or draw (1X)62%
    • Under 3.5 goals73%

    Combined probability

    46%

    Fair odds

    2.20

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Slask Wroclaw or draw (1X)62%
    • Under 2.5 goals51%
    • Luka Marjanac to score22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score54%
    • Over 2.5 goals49%
    • Mariusz Paweł Stępiński to score27%
    • Ariel Paweł Mosór to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Slask Wroclaw42% probability@2.79PinnacleEV+16%reference odds
    • 1 · Slask Wroclaw42% probability@2.62BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
    • 1 · Slask Wroclaw42% probability@2.62BetssonEV+9%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Slask WroclawX2 · Korona Kielce
    Betsafe
    EV+ 9%
    2.62    		3.252.52
    Betsson
    EV+ 9%
    2.62    		3.252.52
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 9%
    2.62    		3.252.52
    Paddy Power
    EV+ 4%
    2.50    		3.302.45
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 16%
    2.79    		3.432.51

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 14:29

    Odds movement

    1+9 %
    38 %33 %

    2.57 → 2.79

    X+1 %
    30 %25 %

    3.39 → 3.43

    2-6 %
    39 %34 %

    2.67 → 2.51

    Over 2,5+4 %
    55 %50 %

    1.78 → 1.85

    Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Slask Wroclaw 0Draw 1Korona Kielce 1
    Goals: 1–3 (⌀ 2)

    Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Korona Kielce are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Slask Wroclaw
    Korona Kielce
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Slask Wroclaw (9–11)
    Korona Kielce (7–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Slask Wroclaw
    Mariusz Malec: 200 passningar, xT 0.15MalecYehor Matsenko: 188 passningar, xT 0.7MatsenkoMarc Llinares: 167 passningar, xT 0.19LlinaresGrzegorz Tomasiewicz: 153 passningar, xT 0.41TomasiewiczPiotr Samiec-Talar: 137 passningar, xT 0.97Samiec-TalarIrodotos Christodoulou: 94 passningar, xT 0.21ChristodoulouJorge Luis Yriarte González: 92 passningar, xT 0.12GonzálezAlex Emilio Timossi Andersson: 84 passningar, xT 0.74AnderssonEniss Shabani: 83 passningar, xT 0.27ShabaniLamine Ba: 83 passningar, xT 0.11BaKarol Stanisław Niemczycki: 81 passningar, xT 0.07Niemczycki
    Korona Kielce
    Patrik Hellebrand: 301 passningar, xT 0.19HellebrandAriel Mosor: 167 passningar, xT 0.1MosorMarcel Pieczek: 165 passningar, xT 0.93PieczekSlobodan Rubežić: 156 passningar, xT 0.38RubežićWiktor Dlugosz: 155 passningar, xT 0.8DlugoszKamil Jakubczyk: 139 passningar, xT 0.11JakubczykXavier Dziekonski: 111 passningar, xT 0.2DziekonskiMartin Remacle: 103 passningar, xT 0.2RemacleKonstantinos Sotiriou: 82 passningar, xT 0.08SotiriouMorgan Fassbender: 65 passningar, xT -0.1FassbenderMariusz Paweł Stępiński: 48 passningar, xT 0.03Stępiński
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Slask Wroclaw
    Mariusz Malec: 200 passningar, xT 0.15MalecYehor Matsenko: 188 passningar, xT 0.7MatsenkoMarc Llinares: 167 passningar, xT 0.19LlinaresGrzegorz Tomasiewicz: 153 passningar, xT 0.41TomasiewiczPiotr Samiec-Talar: 137 passningar, xT 0.97Samiec-TalarIrodotos Christodoulou: 94 passningar, xT 0.21ChristodoulouJorge Luis Yriarte González: 92 passningar, xT 0.12GonzálezAlex Emilio Timossi Andersson: 84 passningar, xT 0.74AnderssonEniss Shabani: 83 passningar, xT 0.27ShabaniLamine Ba: 83 passningar, xT 0.11BaKarol Stanisław Niemczycki: 81 passningar, xT 0.07Niemczycki
    Korona Kielce
    Patrik Hellebrand: 301 passningar, xT 0.19HellebrandAriel Mosor: 167 passningar, xT 0.1MosorMarcel Pieczek: 165 passningar, xT 0.93PieczekSlobodan Rubežić: 156 passningar, xT 0.38RubežićWiktor Dlugosz: 155 passningar, xT 0.8DlugoszKamil Jakubczyk: 139 passningar, xT 0.11JakubczykXavier Dziekonski: 111 passningar, xT 0.2DziekonskiMartin Remacle: 103 passningar, xT 0.2RemacleKonstantinos Sotiriou: 82 passningar, xT 0.08SotiriouMorgan Fassbender: 65 passningar, xT -0.1FassbenderMariusz Paweł Stępiński: 48 passningar, xT 0.03Stępiński

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceSlask WroclawKorona Kielce
    Points69
    xPoints9.87.7
    xG per match1.51.2
    xGA per match1.41.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.350.21
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.280.19
    Playing styleSlask WroclawKorona Kielce
    Build-up efficiency0.310.32
    Field tilt0.560.5
    xT per match1.30.73
    xTA per match1.21.3
    Won balls, offensive half2425
    Pressing intensity0.250.23
    Pressing efficiency0.270.31
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.220.23
    Entries into the box per match1712
    Entries into the box against1513
    Pass completion %0.740.75
    Pass completion % under pressure0.70.7
    Passes per match319318
    Passes against per match352365
    Switches of play per match21.926.7
    Long balls per match2932
    Set piecesSlask WroclawKorona Kielce
    xG from free kicks0.010.03
    Corners per match4.24.2
    Corners against per match5.36.5
    xG per corner0.020.04
    xGA per corner against0.040.05
    First touch, offensive corners %0.530.44
    First touch, defensive corners %0.660.58
    OtherSlask WroclawKorona Kielce
    Throw-in control0.710.74
    The goalkeepersKarol Stanisław Niemczycki (Slask Wroclaw)Xavier Dziekonski (Korona Kielce)
    Saves2014
    Save %69%74%
    xG prevented63%54%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Slask Wroclaw
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Korona Kielce
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Slask Wroclaw vs Korona Kielce according to our model?

    The model gives Slask Wroclaw a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Slask Wroclaw 42%, draw 28%, Korona Kielce 30%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Postponed — now 15 September

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.