Ekstraklasa21°14 km/h

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    Widzew ŁódźWidzew ŁódźPossession & high press
    2–3
    Lech PoznańLech PoznańPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Lech Poznań (49%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.90 (+8 %)

    Widzew Łódź – Lech Poznań · Ekstraklasa

    1 · Widzew Łódź 23%X 28%49% Lech Poznań · 2

    Analysis: Widzew Łódź – Lech Poznań

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    In four encounters since 2023, Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznań are even with two wins each. This head-to-head record, however, is a small sample and weighs less than the visitors' impressive league form. Lech come into this clash unbeaten in their last 13 matches, a streak that underscores their consistency and adaptability, regardless of their opponent.

    Despite Widzew's resilient head-to-head results, the underlying numbers hint at a different narrative. Hosting Lech, Widzew's expected goals metric (1.9 xG per match) suggests they can create chances. However, Poznań's tighter defense, with an expected goals against of just 0.91, could stifle the hosts' attacking efforts. This defensive solidity contributes significantly to Lech's favored status, with the model assigning them a 49% chance of victory.

    Lech's playing style mirrors that of Widzew, with both teams favoring possession and a high press. This could lead to a tight contest where midfield battles dictate the flow. Yet, the expected goals lean towards an open game, with a 58% chance for over 2.5 goals and a high likelihood (59%) of both teams finding the net. The model's most likely scorelines of 1-1, 1-2, and 0-1 indicate a narrow edge for visitors, reflecting their slightly superior expected goal tally of 1.84.

    From a betting perspective, there's noticeable value in backing the visitors. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer odds of 2.15 for a Lech win, presenting a 6% edge over the model's 49% probability. This alignment between form, defensive acumen, and market odds makes Lech Poznań a compelling choice for value hunters.

    Widzew ŁódźWidzew Łódź
    Form DDWLD
    League ranking xG #4xGA #5xT #8xP/match #6Points #8
    Key players
    • Francisco Javier Álvarez RodríguezCMxG 0.13 · xT 0.08
    • Juljan ShehuCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.15
    • Christopher ChengLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.05
    Lech PoznańLech Poznań
    Form WDDWW
    League ranking xG #7xGA #1xT #2xP/match #2Points #4
    Key players
    • Mel Yannick Joel AgneroFxG 0.58 · xT 0.27
    • Mikael IshakFxG 0.63 · xT 0.20
    • Radoslaw MurawskiCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.12
    Final score
    2 – 3
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Widzew Łódź 23% · Draw 28% · Lech Poznań 49%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Lech PoznanBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 5,60fair 5,86-4 %
    Hit
    Matchresultat - Widzew LodzBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,57fair 14,16-47 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Widzew Łódź – Lech Poznań

    Predicted score matrix

    Lech Poznań →
    Widzew Łódź →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.2%
    0–18.7%
    0–28.3%
    0–35.1%
    0–4+3.5%
    1
    1–05.5%
    1–110.9%
    1–29.7%
    1–36.0%
    1–4+4.2%
    2
    2–03.4%
    2–16.3%
    2–25.8%
    2–33.5%
    2–4+2.5%
    3
    3–01.3%
    3–12.5%
    3–22.3%
    3–31.4%
    3–4+1.0%
    4+
    4+–00.5%
    4+–10.9%
    4+–20.9%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.1-210%
    3. 3.0-19%
    4. 4.0-28%
    5. 5.2-16%
    Expected goals
    1,18–1,84
    Both teams to score
    59%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,0
    Under 2,542%
    @2.29
    Over 2,558%
    @1.64

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Lech Poznań to win49%
    • Over 1.5 goals81%

    Combined probability

    44%

    Fair odds

    2.29

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Lech Poznań to win49%
    • Over 2.5 goals58%
    • Mikael Ishak to score37%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score59%
    • Over 2.5 goals58%
    • Mikael Ishak to score37%
    • Lindon Selahi to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • X · Draw28% probability@3.90PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
    • 2 · Lech Poznań49% probability@2.16PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
    • 2 · Lech Poznań49% probability@2.15BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Widzew ŁódźX2 · Lech Poznań
    Betsafe2.953.40
    EV+ 6%
    2.15
    Betsson2.953.40
    EV+ 6%
    2.15
    Nordicbet2.953.40
    EV+ 6%
    2.15
    Pinnacle3.02
    EV+ 8%
    3.90
    EV+ 7%
    2.16

    Odds updated 30 Aug, 05:13

    Odds movement

    1+3 %
    34 %29 %

    2.93 → 3.02

    X+3 %
    27 %22 %

    3.79 → 3.90

    2-2 %
    46 %41 %

    2.20 → 2.16

    Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Widzew Łódź 2Draw 0Lech Poznań 2
    Goals: 6–8 (⌀ 3,5)

    Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Lech Poznan are unbeaten in their last 13 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Widzew Łódź
    Lech Poznań
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Widzew Łódź (8–7)
    Lech Poznań (5–1)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Widzew Łódź
    Juljan Shehu: 207 passningar, xT 0.67ShehuPrzemysław Wiśniewski: 179 passningar, xT 0.29WiśniewskiSteve Kapuadi: 161 passningar, xT 0.25KapuadiFrancisco Javier Álvarez Rodríguez: 147 passningar, xT 0.33RodríguezEmil Nestved Kornvig: 123 passningar, xT 0.24KornvigBartłomiej Drągowski: 111 passningar, xT 0.21DrągowskiMarcel Krajewski: 108 passningar, xT 0.05KrajewskiMario García Alvear: 82 passningar, xT 0.54AlvearKarol Grzegorz Świderski: 68 passningar, xT 0.72ŚwiderskiChristopher Cheng: 65 passningar, xT 0.06ChengMariusz Fornalczyk: 48 passningar, xT 0.78Fornalczyk
    Lech Poznań
    Wojciech Mońka: 167 passningar, xT 0.2MońkaMichal Gurgul: 117 passningar, xT 0.63GurgulMateusz Skrzypczak: 93 passningar, xT 0.16SkrzypczakMateusz Lis: 91 passningar, xT 0.01LisRadoslaw Murawski: 90 passningar, xT 0.15MurawskiJoel Pereira: 90 passningar, xT 0.39PereiraAntoni Kozubal: 85 passningar, xT 0.36KozubalTerry Yegbe: 63 passningar, xT 0.08YegbePablo Rodriguez: 61 passningar, xT 0.1RodriguezLuis Palma: 57 passningar, xT 0.63PalmaPatrik Walemark: 39 passningar, xT 0.21Walemark
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Widzew Łódź
    Juljan Shehu: 207 passningar, xT 0.67ShehuPrzemysław Wiśniewski: 179 passningar, xT 0.29WiśniewskiSteve Kapuadi: 161 passningar, xT 0.25KapuadiFrancisco Javier Álvarez Rodríguez: 147 passningar, xT 0.33RodríguezEmil Nestved Kornvig: 123 passningar, xT 0.24KornvigBartłomiej Drągowski: 111 passningar, xT 0.21DrągowskiMarcel Krajewski: 108 passningar, xT 0.05KrajewskiMario García Alvear: 82 passningar, xT 0.54AlvearKarol Grzegorz Świderski: 68 passningar, xT 0.72ŚwiderskiChristopher Cheng: 65 passningar, xT 0.06ChengMariusz Fornalczyk: 48 passningar, xT 0.78Fornalczyk
    Lech Poznań
    Wojciech Mońka: 167 passningar, xT 0.2MońkaMichal Gurgul: 117 passningar, xT 0.63GurgulMateusz Skrzypczak: 93 passningar, xT 0.16SkrzypczakMateusz Lis: 91 passningar, xT 0.01LisRadoslaw Murawski: 90 passningar, xT 0.15MurawskiJoel Pereira: 90 passningar, xT 0.39PereiraAntoni Kozubal: 85 passningar, xT 0.36KozubalTerry Yegbe: 63 passningar, xT 0.08YegbePablo Rodriguez: 61 passningar, xT 0.1RodriguezLuis Palma: 57 passningar, xT 0.63PalmaPatrik Walemark: 39 passningar, xT 0.21Walemark

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceWidzew ŁódźLech Poznań
    Points67
    xPoints8.25.1
    xG per match1.91.7
    xGA per match1.30.91
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.410.36
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.330.08
    Playing styleWidzew ŁódźLech Poznań
    Build-up efficiency0.290.3
    Field tilt0.420.57
    xT per match1.21.6
    xTA per match1.30.97
    Won balls, offensive half3024
    Pressing intensity0.250.25
    Pressing efficiency0.320.26
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.30.21
    Entries into the box per match1117
    Entries into the box against1610
    Pass completion %0.740.79
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.74
    Passes per match299375
    Passes against per match338363
    Switches of play per match2627.5
    Long balls per match3134
    Set piecesWidzew ŁódźLech Poznań
    xG from free kicks0.190.07
    Corners per match57.4
    Corners against per match5.84.4
    xG per corner0.060.02
    xGA per corner against0.030.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.480.41
    First touch, defensive corners %0.660.69
    OtherWidzew ŁódźLech Poznań
    Throw-in control0.670.83
    The goalkeepersBartłomiej Drągowski (Widzew Łódź)Mateusz Lis (Lech Poznań)
    Saves175
    Save %77%83%
    xG prevented89%81%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Widzew Łódź
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Lech Poznań
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznań according to our model?

    The model gives Lech Poznań a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Widzew Łódź 23%, draw 28%, Lech Poznań 49%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Postponed — now 15 September

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.