Wieczysta Kraków vs Lech Poznań: Prediction & Odds (1 Aug 2026)

Ekstraklasa1 August 202631°21 km/h

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Wieczysta Kraków

1–2

Lech Poznań

The model's lean: 2 · Lech Poznań (65%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 4.80 (+52 %)

1 · Wieczysta Kraków 18%X 17%65% Lech Poznań · 2

18%

17%

65%

Final score

1 – 2

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Wieczysta Kraków 18% · Draw 17% · Lech Poznań 65%

Match prediction: Wieczysta Kraków – Lech Poznań

Predicted score matrix

Lech Poznań →

Wieczysta Kraków →

0–02.6%

0–15.9%

0–27.7%

0–36.4%

0–4+7.4%

1–02.7%

1–17.5%

1–29.2%

1–37.7%

1–4+8.9%

2–01.8%

2–14.4%

2–25.6%

2–34.7%

2–4+5.3%

3–00.7%

3–11.8%

3–22.2%

3–31.9%

3–4+2.2%

4+–00.3%

4+–10.7%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.8%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-29%
2.1-38%
3.0-28%
4.1-18%
5.0-36%

Expected goals

1,21–2,52

Both teams to score

65%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,7

19%

217%

321%

419%

5+32%

Under 2,528%

@2.25

Over 2,572%

@1.57EV+13%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Lech Poznań to win65%
Over 1.5 goals89%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Lech Poznań to win65%
Over 2.5 goals72%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score65%
Over 2.5 goals72%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 4.532% probability@4.80Paddy PowerEV+52%
Over 3.551% probability@2.55Paddy PowerEV+30%
2 · Lech Poznań65% probability@1.90PinnacleEV+24%

Bookmaker	1 · Wieczysta Kraków	X	2 · Lech Poznań
Paddy Power	3.80	3.80	EV+ 15% 1.75
Pinnacle	3.70	4.04	EV+ 24% 1.90

Odds updated 1 Aug, 10:08

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Wieczysta Kraków win since 29 July — the odds have shortened from 4.55 to 3.70 (−19%).

1-19 %

29 %19 %

4.55 → 3.70

X0 %

29 %19 %

4.04 → 4.04

2+13 %

57 %47 %

1.68 → 1.90

Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 29/07/2026 → 01/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Wieczysta Kraków vs Lech Poznań according to our model?

The model gives Lech Poznań a 65% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wieczysta Kraków 18%, draw 17%, Lech Poznań 65%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-2 at 9% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 72% and under at 28%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.