Ekstraklasa17°9 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    Wieczysta KrakówWieczysta KrakówPossession & high press
    1–1
    Zagłębie LubinZagłębie LubinLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Wieczysta Kraków (50%)

    Wieczysta Kraków – Zagłębie Lubin · Ekstraklasa

    1 · Wieczysta Kraków 50%X 23%27% Zagłębie Lubin · 2

    Analysis: Wieczysta Kraków – Zagłębie Lubin

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Wieczysta Kraków's 50% win probability sets them as slight favorites against Zagłębie Lubin, yet it's their high-pressing, possession-heavy style that truly commands this matchup. The hosts have a higher expected goals tally, 1.69 compared to Lubin’s 1.17, suggesting they should create more scoring opportunities. However, their defensive frailties are exposed by an xGA of 1.8 per match, making them vulnerable to counter-attacking plays from Lubin, who lean on a low defensive block and direct transitions.

    Zagłębie Lubin, despite a stronger points tally of 8 against Kraków's 3, also hold a slight edge in expected points: 7.5 to 6.5. This indicates that while Lubin has been more effective in converting chances into results, they may not necessarily dominate the flow of the game. Their low-risk approach could frustrate Kraków's efforts to break through, making the visitors a tricky opponent despite their lower model probability.

    The most likely scorelines are tight, with 1-1, 2-1, and 1-0 all within reach. The model leans towards a narrow home win, perhaps 2-1. With a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and both teams likely to score at 56%, goals should be anticipated, even if defenses try to stifle them.

    Wieczysta KrakówWieczysta Kraków
    Form LLWLL
    League ranking xG #8xGA #12xT #10xP/match #11Points #17
    Key players
    • Tobias ChristensenFxG 0.34 · xT 0.18
    • Karol FilaRWBxG 0.35 · xT 0.15
    • Lucas Domingues PiazónCAMxG 0.13 · xT 0.08
    Zagłębie LubinZagłębie Lubin
    Form WLWDD
    League ranking xG #18xGA #2xT #14xP/match #7Points #7
    Key players
    • Marcel RegulaFxG 0.37 · xT 0.09
    • Mateusz GrzybekRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.21
    • Jakub SypekLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.18
    Final score
    1 – 1
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Wieczysta Kraków 50% · Draw 23% · Zagłębie Lubin 27%

    Match prediction: Wieczysta Kraków – Zagłębie Lubin

    Predicted score matrix

    Zagłębie Lubin →
    Wieczysta Kraków →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.1%
    0–16.4%
    0–23.9%
    0–31.5%
    0–4+0.6%
    1
    1–09.4%
    1–111.7%
    1–26.6%
    1–32.6%
    1–4+1.0%
    2
    2–08.2%
    2–19.6%
    2–25.6%
    2–32.2%
    2–4+0.8%
    3
    3–04.6%
    3–15.4%
    3–23.1%
    3–31.2%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–02.8%
    4+–13.3%
    4+–21.9%
    4+–30.8%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.2-110%
    3. 3.1-09%
    4. 4.2-08%
    5. 5.1-27%
    Expected goals
    1,69–1,17
    Both teams to score
    56%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,546%
    @2.19EV+0%
    Over 2,554%
    @1.71

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Wieczysta Kraków to win50%
    • Over 1.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    40%

    Fair odds

    2.52

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Wieczysta Kraków to win50%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Tobias Christensen to score39%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score56%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Tobias Christensen to score39%
    • Filip Kocaba to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Wieczysta Kraków50% probability@2.00PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
    • Under 2.546% probability@2.19PinnacleEV+0%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Wieczysta KrakówX2 · Zagłębie Lubin
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 1%
    2.00    		3.723.62

    Odds updated 7 Sept, 05:13

    Odds movement

    1+7 %
    52 %47 %

    1.87 → 2.00

    X+1 %
    28 %23 %

    3.70 → 3.72

    2-7 %
    28 %23 %

    3.90 → 3.62

    Over 2,5-3 %
    57 %52 %

    1.76 → 1.71

    Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 07/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Wieczysta Kraków
    Zagłębie Lubin
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Wieczysta Kraków (8–12)
    Zagłębie Lubin (5–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Wieczysta Kraków
    Mikkel Maigaard: 300 passningar, xT 0.29MaigaardAntonio Milic: 226 passningar, xT 0.28MilicLucas Domingues Piazón: 178 passningar, xT 0.21PiazónTobias Christensen: 164 passningar, xT 0.47ChristensenMateusz Wieteska: 152 passningar, xT 0.26WieteskaMatus Vojtko: 149 passningar, xT 0.39VojtkoAleksandar Đermanović: 125 passningar, xT 0.06ĐermanovićKamil Dankowski: 123 passningar, xT 0.67DankowskiAntoni Mikulko: 103 passningar, xT -0.02MikulkoKarol Fila: 94 passningar, xT 0.26FilaPetar Pušić: 91 passningar, xT 0.44Pušić
    Zagłębie Lubin
    Aleks Lawniczak: 164 passningar, xT 0.4LawniczakDamian Michalski: 129 passningar, xT -0.09MichalskiFilip Kocaba: 128 passningar, xT 0.25KocabaMichal Nalepa: 117 passningar, xT 0.52NalepaZlatan Alomerović: 106 passningar, xT 0.08AlomerovićMateusz Grzybek: 90 passningar, xT 0.74GrzybekSebastian Kerk: 89 passningar, xT 0.35KerkJosip Corluka: 80 passningar, xT 0.19CorlukaDamian Dabrowski: 71 passningar, xT 0.1DabrowskiJakub Kolan: 68 passningar, xT 0.85KolanRoman Yakuba: 58 passningar, xT 0.23Yakuba
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Wieczysta Kraków
    Mikkel Maigaard: 300 passningar, xT 0.29MaigaardAntonio Milic: 226 passningar, xT 0.28MilicLucas Domingues Piazón: 178 passningar, xT 0.21PiazónTobias Christensen: 164 passningar, xT 0.47ChristensenMateusz Wieteska: 152 passningar, xT 0.26WieteskaMatus Vojtko: 149 passningar, xT 0.39VojtkoAleksandar Đermanović: 125 passningar, xT 0.06ĐermanovićKamil Dankowski: 123 passningar, xT 0.67DankowskiAntoni Mikulko: 103 passningar, xT -0.02MikulkoKarol Fila: 94 passningar, xT 0.26FilaPetar Pušić: 91 passningar, xT 0.44Pušić
    Zagłębie Lubin
    Aleks Lawniczak: 164 passningar, xT 0.4LawniczakDamian Michalski: 129 passningar, xT -0.09MichalskiFilip Kocaba: 128 passningar, xT 0.25KocabaMichal Nalepa: 117 passningar, xT 0.52NalepaZlatan Alomerović: 106 passningar, xT 0.08AlomerovićMateusz Grzybek: 90 passningar, xT 0.74GrzybekSebastian Kerk: 89 passningar, xT 0.35KerkJosip Corluka: 80 passningar, xT 0.19CorlukaDamian Dabrowski: 71 passningar, xT 0.1DabrowskiJakub Kolan: 68 passningar, xT 0.85KolanRoman Yakuba: 58 passningar, xT 0.23Yakuba

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceWieczysta KrakówZagłębie Lubin
    Points38
    xPoints6.57.5
    xG per match1.71.2
    xGA per match1.81.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.290.13
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.580.1
    Playing styleWieczysta KrakówZagłębie Lubin
    Build-up efficiency0.280.28
    Field tilt0.60.39
    xT per match1.10.99
    xTA per match1.20.85
    Won balls, offensive half2425
    Pressing intensity0.230.24
    Pressing efficiency0.290.33
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.260.28
    Entries into the box per match1515
    Entries into the box against1714
    Pass completion %0.790.71
    Pass completion % under pressure0.730.64
    Passes per match417269
    Passes against per match349303
    Switches of play per match26.426.6
    Long balls per match3137
    Set piecesWieczysta KrakówZagłębie Lubin
    xG from free kicks00.01
    Corners per match43.8
    Corners against per match6.46.5
    xG per corner0.040.07
    xGA per corner against0.040.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.450.32
    First touch, defensive corners %0.440.67
    OtherWieczysta KrakówZagłębie Lubin
    Throw-in control0.720.85
    The goalkeepersAntoni Mikulko (Wieczysta Kraków)Zlatan Alomerović (Zagłębie Lubin)
    Saves147
    Save %58%88%
    xG prevented56%53%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Wieczysta Kraków
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Zagłębie Lubin
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Wieczysta Kraków vs Zagłębie Lubin according to our model?

    The model gives Wieczysta Kraków a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wieczysta Kraków 50%, draw 23%, Zagłębie Lubin 27%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Postponed — now 15 September

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.