Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia Białystok: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Ekstraklasa12 September 2026

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Wisla KrakowPossession control

Jagiellonia BiałystokPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Jagiellonia Białystok (42%)

1 · Wisla Krakow 34%X 24%42% Jagiellonia Białystok · 2

34%

24%

42%

Analysis: Wisla Krakow – Jagiellonia Białystok

Oscar Nilsson · 4 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT:

Jagiellonia Białystok's recent form might not suggest it, but the model sees them as slight favorites heading into their clash with Wisla Krakow. It's a curious tilt: the visitors are given a 42% chance of winning compared to the hosts' 34%, despite trailing them in the actual points table.

Wisla, boasting an xG of 2.0 per match, has shown more cutting edge in the attacking third than their visitors, who lag slightly at 1.7 xG. Wisla's defensive stats also hold a marginal edge, with an xGA of 1.4 compared to Jagiellonia's 1.6. This suggests that, on paper, Wisla is the more balanced team. Their ability to convert chances and hold firm at the back could be critical, especially given their penchant for controlling possession — a trait shared by Jagiellonia, making this a potentially tactical midfield battle.

The model's most likely scorelines — a 1-1 draw at 10% and Jagiellonia's 1-2 win at 9% — highlight the fine margins in play. With both sides preferring to keep the ball, this could boil down to who capitalizes on the inevitable lapses first. The over 2.5 goals probability, sitting at a high 66%, suggests an open game, notwithstanding both teams' relatively controlled styles.

Given the expected goals and the model's probabilities, the shrewd bettor might find value in siding with Jagiellonia Białystok, given the model's lean towards them. While Wisla has shown a slightly better overall balance in metrics, the probability tilt subtly suggests an edge for the visitors, setting up a tense and tightly contested fixture.

Wisla Krakow

Form LWLDW

League ranking xG #1xGA #6xT #12xP/match #3Points #4

Key players

Jordi Sánchez RibasFxG 0.73 · xT 0.06
Julian LelieveldRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.26
Thody Élie YouanRWxG 0.37 · xT 0.07

Jagiellonia Białystok

Form WWLWL

League ranking xG #6xGA #9xT #7xP/match #10Points #6

Key players

Guilherme Manuel Serrão MontóiaLBxG 0.18 · xT 0.27
Kajetan SzmytLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.09
Nik PrelecFxG 0.51 · xT 0.04

Match prediction: Wisla Krakow – Jagiellonia Białystok

Predicted score matrix

Jagiellonia Białystok →

Wisla Krakow →

0–03.7%

0–16.4%

0–26.5%

0–34.2%

0–4+3.3%

1–04.6%

1–19.7%

1–29.3%

1–36.1%

1–4+4.6%

2–03.4%

2–16.7%

2–26.6%

2–34.3%

2–4+3.3%

3–01.6%

3–13.2%

3–23.1%

3–32.1%

3–4+1.6%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.6%

4+–21.5%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.8%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-29%
3.2-17%
4.2-27%
5.0-27%

Expected goals

1,43–1,96

Both teams to score

66%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

220%

322%

419%

5+25%

Under 2,534%

@2.32

Over 2,566%

@1.57EV+2%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Jagiellonia Białystok or draw (X2)72%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Jagiellonia Białystok or draw (X2)72%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Sergio Lozano Lluch to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score66%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Sergio Lozano Lluch to score29%
Alan Uryga to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Jagiellonia Białystok42% probability@2.90BetsafeEV+21%reference odds
2 · Jagiellonia Białystok42% probability@2.90BetssonEV+21%reference odds
2 · Jagiellonia Białystok42% probability@2.90NordicbetEV+21%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Wisla Krakow	X	2 · Jagiellonia Białystok
Betsafe	2.15	3.55	EV+ 21% 2.90
Betsson	2.15	3.55	EV+ 21% 2.90
Nordicbet	2.15	3.55	EV+ 21% 2.90
Paddy Power	2.10	3.60	EV+ 17% 2.80
Pinnacle	2.24	3.73	EV+ 21% 2.89

Odds updated 7 Sept, 05:13

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Wisla Krakow

Jagiellonia Białystok

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Wisla Krakow (12–10)

Jagiellonia Białystok (9–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Wisla Krakow

Jagiellonia Białystok

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Wisla Krakow

Jagiellonia Białystok

The teams in numbers

Performance	Wisla Krakow	Jagiellonia Białystok
Points	10	9
xPoints	9.8	6.7
xG per match	2	1.7
xGA per match	1.4	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.07	0.13
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.49

Playing style	Wisla Krakow	Jagiellonia Białystok
Build-up efficiency	0.27	0.28
Field tilt	0.55	0.57
xT per match	1	1.2
xTA per match	1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	24	22
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.28
Entries into the box per match	13	15
Entries into the box against	13	13
Pass completion %	0.76	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.74
Passes per match	364	397
Passes against per match	330	293
Switches of play per match	20.9	23.1
Long balls per match	25	31

Set pieces	Wisla Krakow	Jagiellonia Białystok
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.01
Corners per match	5.3	4.2
Corners against per match	5.6	4.6
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.32	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.61

Other	Wisla Krakow	Jagiellonia Białystok
Throw-in control	0.79	0.76

The goalkeepers	Marcel Łubik (Wisla Krakow)	Slawomir Abramowicz (Jagiellonia Białystok)
Saves	27	13
Save %	73%	65%
xG prevented	44%	43%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia Białystok according to our model?

The model gives Jagiellonia Białystok a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wisla Krakow 34%, draw 24%, Jagiellonia Białystok 42%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 66% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.