Wisła Płock vs Korona Kielce: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

Ekstraklasa29 August 202621°22 km/h

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Wisła PłockCounter-attacks & crosses

Korona KielceLow block & direct

The model's lean: 2 · Korona Kielce (39%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.78 (+2 %)

1 · Wisła Płock 33%X 28%39% Korona Kielce · 2

33%

28%

39%

Analysis: Wisła Płock – Korona Kielce

Oscar Nilsson · 24 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

In their two meetings since 2023, Wisła Płock has edged out a win and a draw against Korona Kielce, but with such a small sample size, this head-to-head record doesn't weigh as heavily as other factors. The model gives a slight edge to the visitors, Korona Kielce, with a 39% win probability compared to the hosts' 33%. This is reflected in the most likely scorelines too, with a 1-1 draw at 13% and a 0-1 Korona win at 11%.

Digging into the numbers, Korona Kielce's current form and expected goals offer a clearer picture. They have a slight edge in points and xPoints, suggesting a marginally better performance overall. However, Wisła's counter-attacking style could trouble Korona's low defensive setup if they are caught off guard. Despite this, Korona's lower xGA per match of 1.5 compared to Wisła's 1.9 indicates a more solid defensive record, which could be crucial in tight games.

The expected goals forecast is nearly even, with Wisła at 1.17 and Korona at 1.22, hinting at a closely contested affair. Meanwhile, the likelihood of over 2.5 goals sits at just 43%, suggesting a low-scoring match is more probable. Additionally, the model rates both teams to score at only 49%, reinforcing the potential for a more cautious and defensive game.

For bettors, the sharpest angle lies in the under 2.5 goals market. With Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offering odds of 1.75, this aligns with the model's prediction of a 57% probability for a low-scoring match. Though this presents a 0% edge, the numbers still suggest it's the most realistic outcome here, with a 1-1 draw or a narrow 1-0 victory either way being the likeliest scenarios.

Wisła Płock

Form DWDLL

League ranking xG #13xGA #14xT #15xP/match #14Points #15

Key players

Adam RadwanskiCAMxG 0.04 · xT 0.10
Marcus Haglind SangreCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
Žan RogeljRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.05

Korona Kielce

Form DLDWD

League ranking xG #16xGA #8xT #18xP/match #12Points #11

Key players

Mariusz Paweł StępińskiFxG 0.29 · xT 0.00
Wiktor DlugoszRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.03
Ariel MosorCBxG 0.18 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: Wisła Płock – Korona Kielce

Predicted score matrix

Korona Kielce →

Wisła Płock →

0–09.5%

0–110.8%

0–26.8%

0–32.8%

0–4+1.1%

1–010.3%

1–113.5%

1–28.0%

1–33.3%

1–4+1.3%

2–06.3%

2–17.7%

2–24.7%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.8%

3–02.4%

3–13.0%

3–21.8%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.1%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-010%
4.0-010%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,17–1,22

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+10%

Under 2,557%

@1.78EV+0%

Over 2,543%

@2.04

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Korona Kielce or draw (X2)65%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Korona Kielce or draw (X2)65%
Under 2.5 goals57%
Antonio Cortés Heredia to score15%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Žan Rogelj to score18%
Tomás Franco Tavares to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.557% probability@1.78PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
Under 2.557% probability@1.75BetsafeEV+0%reference odds
Under 2.557% probability@1.75BetssonEV+0%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Wisła Płock	X	2 · Korona Kielce
Betsafe	2.65	3.15	2.52
Betsson	2.65	3.15	2.52
Nordicbet	2.65	3.15	2.52
Paddy Power	2.50	3.25	2.50
Pinnacle	2.80	3.27	2.53

Odds updated 26 Aug, 05:13

Odds movement

10 %

36 %31 %

2.80 → 2.80

X0 %

31 %26 %

3.27 → 3.27

20 %

40 %35 %

2.53 → 2.53

Over 2,50 %

49 %44 %

2.04 → 2.04

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 26/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Wisła Płock 1Draw 1Korona Kielce 0

Goals: 3–1 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Wisła Płock

Korona Kielce

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Wisła Płock (3–8)

Korona Kielce (4–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Wisła Płock

Korona Kielce

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Wisła Płock

Korona Kielce

The teams in numbers

Performance	Wisła Płock	Korona Kielce
Points	4	5
xPoints	4.4	5.2
xG per match	1.3	1.2
xGA per match	1.9	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.12	0.22
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.34	0.18

Playing style	Wisła Płock	Korona Kielce
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.32
Field tilt	0.42	0.52
xT per match	0.83	0.7
xTA per match	1.2	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	27	24
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.24
Entries into the box per match	13	13
Entries into the box against	12	10
Pass completion %	0.76	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.71
Passes per match	353	349
Passes against per match	337	346
Switches of play per match	27.3	29.9
Long balls per match	29	34

Set pieces	Wisła Płock	Korona Kielce
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.02
Corners per match	7.7	5.1
Corners against per match	4.1	5.6
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.47	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.64

Other	Wisła Płock	Korona Kielce
Throw-in control	0.87	0.73

The goalkeepers	Rafal Leszczynski (Wisła Płock)	Xavier Dziekonski (Korona Kielce)
Saves	11	7
Save %	58%	64%
xG prevented	41%	34%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Wisła Płock vs Korona Kielce according to our model?

The model gives Korona Kielce a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wisła Płock 33%, draw 28%, Korona Kielce 39%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.