01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Benfica B or draw (X2)65%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Liga Portugal 220°0,9 mm10 km/h
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Amarante Futebol Clubevs
Benfica BThe model's lean: 2 · Benfica B (42%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 3.75 (+34 %)
Limited data — The model has few previous matches with these teams in this league — the forecast therefore rests on thinner data than usual.
Amarante Futebol Clube – Benfica B · Liga Portugal 2
1 · Amarante Futebol Clube 32%X 26%42% Benfica B · 2
32%
26%
42%
Analysis: Amarante Futebol Clube – Benfica B
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
Amarante Futebol Clube and Benfica B face off with a head-to-head record that offers little insight. With fewer than six games between them since 2023, the sample remains too small to outweigh current form and expected goals. Yet, amidst this limited history lies an interesting dynamic: Benfica B's superior standing in the model's eyes. They're favored with a 42% probability of victory, compared to Amarante's 32%.
Zooming in on recent form, the visitors arrive with a slight edge. Benfica B's performance suggests they are the more likely side to capitalize on chances, backed by an expected goals figure of 1.56 compared to Amarante's 1.46. It’s a narrow margin, but one that might tip the scales in a tightly contested affair. The most probable outcomes reflect this balance—1-1 at 11% stands as the most likely, closely followed by a 1-2 win for Benfica B at 9%.
Goals seem likely, too. The over 2.5 goals probability at 58% and a both-teams-to-score chance of 61% indicate an open game. These numbers, already factoring in all variables, suggest a match where offense may outshine defense. The hosts, despite their underdog status, could find the net, but the visitors might just edge them out.
The real angle here, however, lies in the betting market. With Benfica B's odds at 2.42 across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, there’s a clear value bet flagged by the model’s 42% win probability. This 2% edge is small but notable, a nudge towards believing in the visitors' capability to secure an away win. If you’re looking to place a wager, backing Benfica B could be the shrewd choice.
Amarante Futebol ClubeForm LL
Key players
- Abdoul Gaimal Faissal ZangreRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.14
- Feliciano MendesCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.09
- Fernando de Lacerda GomesFxG 0.03 · xT -0.02
Benfica BForm WLLWW
Key players
- Francisco Bernardes Freitas NetoLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.06
- Gonçalo Carvalho MoreiraCAMxG 0.87 · xT 0.18
- Nuno FelixFxG 0.00 · xT 0.02
Match prediction: Amarante Futebol Clube – Benfica B
Predicted score matrix
Benfica B →
Amarante Futebol Clube →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.2%
0–17.3%
0–25.9%
0–33.1%
0–4+1.7%
1
1–06.8%
1–111.4%
1–28.7%
1–34.5%
1–4+2.5%
2
2–05.2%
2–18.1%
2–26.3%
2–33.3%
2–4+1.8%
3
3–02.5%
3–13.9%
3–23.1%
3–31.6%
3–4+0.9%
4+
4+–01.3%
4+–12.0%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.2-18%
- 4.0-17%
- 5.1-07%
Expected goals
1,46–1,56
Both teams to score
61%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
223%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,542%
@1.66
Over 2,558%
@2.18EV+23%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Benfica B or draw (X2)65%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Eduardo Nunes Fernandes to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score61%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Edgar Melvin Andrade Costa to score26%
- João Carvalho da Fonseca to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 3.536% probability@3.75BetsafeEV+34%reference odds
- Over 3.536% probability@3.75BetssonEV+34%reference odds
- Over 3.536% probability@3.75NordicbetEV+34%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Amarante Futebol Clube | X | 2 · Benfica B |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.90 | 3.15 | 2.32 |
| Betsson | 2.90 | 3.15 | 2.32 |
| Nordicbet | 2.90 | 3.15 | 2.32 |
| Pinnacle | 2.89 | 3.37 | EV+ 0% 2.37 |
Odds updated 27 Aug, 16:15
Odds movement
1-1 %
35 %30 %
2.91 → 2.89
X0 %
30 %25 %
3.37 → 3.37
20 %
42 %37 %
2.36 → 2.37
Over 2,50 %
46 %41 %
2.18 → 2.18
Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 26/08/2026 → 27/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Amarante Futebol Clube
Benfica B
Amarante Futebol Clube (1–3)
Benfica B (3–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Amarante Futebol Clube
Benfica B
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Amarante Futebol Clube
Benfica B
| The goalkeepers | Diogo Guilhermino Babo Figueiredo (Amarante Futebol Clube) | Diogo José de Nazaré e Jesus Ferreira (Benfica B) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 2 | 10 |
| Save % | 40% | 91% |
| xG prevented | 8% | 57% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Amarante Futebol Clube vs Benfica B according to our model?
The model gives Benfica B a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Amarante Futebol Clube 32%, draw 26%, Benfica B 42%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.