AVS vs Farense: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Liga Portugal 213 September 202624°10 km/h

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AVS

Farense

The model's lean: 2 · Farense (36%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 1 · AVS @ 3.11 (+2 %)

1 · AVS 33%X 31%36% Farense · 2

33%

31%

36%

Analysis: AVS – Farense

Erik Lindberg · 8 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

AVS's defensive line has been a cornerstone of their strategy this season, and it will be put to the test against Farense. The model gives Farense a slight edge at 36%, compared to 33% for the hosts, with a draw at 31%. This sets the stage for a tightly contested match where quality defending could tip the scales.

Farense arrives with a slightly better expected goals (xG) tally, 1.27 to AVS’s 1.13, suggesting they might just edge out chances in front of goal. Despite this, the numbers suggest a low-scoring affair, with the probability for over 2.5 goals sitting at just 43% and both teams to score at 49%. This leans towards a controlled, defense-first mindset from both teams, something AVS has been known to execute effectively.

In terms of potential outcomes, a 1-1 draw tops the list at 13%, followed by a narrow 0-1 win for Farense at 11% and a 1-0 victory for AVS at 10%. The likelihood of these scorelines underscores the potential for a single moment of brilliance or a defensive lapse to define the game. With such slender margins, Farense's slight edge could prove pivotal, although the small sample size of head-to-head encounters means form should weigh more heavily in our considerations.

While AVS might not operate with the flair of some other teams, their approach is pragmatic. They focus on maintaining structure, aiming to capitalize on any defensive errors Farense might make. However, the model leans marginally towards the visitors due to their slightly superior xG and win probability.

Given the tight odds and expected goal count, the shrewd play here might be backing Farense at 2.75 with Bet365, as this presents a value opportunity based on the data. This is a calculated risk with potential upside, balancing the matchup’s inherent tension with the model's lean, which sees Farense as the marginally more likely victors.

AVS

Form LDW

Key players

Rodrigo Cunha Pereira de PinhoFxG 0.57 · xT 0.05
Abdoulaye Keita KeitaRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.09
Fernando Miguel Pereira AlmeidaFxG 0.09 · xT 0.01

Farense

Form LWWDL

Key players

Derick Theodoro Santos PoloniFxG 0.65 · xT 0.12
André Miguel Arsénio CandeiasRWxG 0.61 · xT 0.02
Gonçalo Filipe Oliveira SilvaCBxG 0.16 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: AVS – Farense

Predicted score matrix

Farense →

AVS →

0–09.4%

0–111.1%

0–27.3%

0–33.1%

0–4+1.3%

1–09.9%

1–113.4%

1–28.2%

1–33.5%

1–4+1.5%

2–05.8%

2–17.4%

2–24.7%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.8%

3–02.2%

3–12.8%

3–21.8%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-010%
4.0-09%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,13–1,27

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

227%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,557%

@1.65

Over 2,543%

@2.20

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Farense or draw (X2)67%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Farense or draw (X2)67%
Under 2.5 goals57%
Derick Theodoro Santos Poloni to score18%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Óscar Andrés Perea Abonce to score22%
Jair Semedo Monteiro to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · AVS33% probability@3.11PinnacleEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · AVS	X	2 · Farense
Betsafe	2.90	3.05	2.40
Betsson	2.90	3.05	2.40
Nordicbet	2.90	3.05	2.40
Pinnacle	EV+ 2% 3.11	3.13	2.37

Odds updated 11 Sept, 05:06

Odds movement

10 %

33 %28 %

3.11 → 3.11

X+1 %

33 %28 %

3.11 → 3.13

20 %

42 %37 %

2.37 → 2.37

Over 2,5-1 %

45 %40 %

2.22 → 2.19

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

AVS

Farense

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

AVS (3–2)

Farense (7–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

AVS

Farense

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

AVS

Farense

The goalkeepers	Daniel Rebollo Franco (AVS)	Fabijan Buntić (Farense)
Saves	15	12
Save %	88%	75%
xG prevented	85%	41%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

AVS

Fixtures, form & tips

Farense

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins AVS vs Farense according to our model?

The model gives Farense a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: AVS 33%, draw 31%, Farense 36%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.